Expenditure Monitor 2023-24: Q1

Publish date: October 4, 2023 ISSN 2562-9883
This report provides information on unaudited spending by the Province through the first quarter of the 2023-24 fiscal year (April 1, 2023 to June 30, 2023).
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About this Document

Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

This report has been prepared with the benefit of publicly available information and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.

All dollar amounts are in Canadian, current dollars (i.e., not adjusted for inflation) unless otherwise noted.

Prepared by: Michelle Gordon (Senior Financial Analyst) under the direction of Luan Ngo (Acting Chief Financial Analyst).

© King’s Printer for Ontario, 2023

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Expenditure Monitor 2023-24: Q1, Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2023.
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Highlights

2023-24 Spending Plan

Changes to the 2023-24 Spending Plan

First Quarter Spending: Actual Unaudited Spending vs. Planned Spending

First Quarter Spending: 2023-24 Spending vs. 2022-23 Spending

Status of the Contingency Fund

Introduction

This report provides information on spending by the Government of Ontario (the Province) through the first quarter of the 2023-24 fiscal year, from April 1, 2023 to June 30, 2023. The report:

The information in this report is based on the FAO’s analysis of transactions recorded in the Province’s Integrated Financial Information System (IFIS) as of June 30, 2023. All figures are unaudited, as final audited figures are not available until the release of the Public Accounts of Ontario up to six months after the end of the fiscal year.

2023-24 Spending Plan

The Province’s yearly spending plan represents the legal spending authority for ministries as granted by the Legislature through the process of supply.[4] The Province started the 2023-24 fiscal year with a spending plan of $197.3 billion.[5]

Changes to the 2023-24 Spending Plan

The Province may change its spending plan throughout the year, either by requesting additional spending authority from the Legislature or by reallocating spending among different programs through Treasury Board Orders. As of the end of the first quarter, June 30, 2023, the Province’s spending plan was down $32 million.

By sector, the largest spending plan increase during the first quarter of 2023-24 was in ‘other programs,’ at $604 million, followed by justice ($190 million), children, community and social services ($33 million), education ($2 million) and postsecondary education ($1 million). This was more than offset by a $14 million reduction in the health sector spending plan and an $849 million transfer from the Contingency Fund.

Table 1 Changes to the 2023-24 spending plan by sector, as of June 30, 2023, $ millions Note: Figures exclude planned spending on some assets and additional planned spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies and the legislative offices. Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector 2023-24
Spending Plan
Q1 Changes Revised 2023-24 Spending Plan
Health 77,090 -14 77,076
Education 36,281 2 36,283
Postsecondary Education 7,226 1 7,228
Children, Community and Social Services 19,526 33 19,559
Justice 5,664 190 5,854
Other Programs 33,756 604 34,360
Unallocated Funds:
Contingency Fund 4,000 -849 3,151
Interest on Debt 13,764 - 13,764
Total 197,307 -32 197,275

First Quarter Analysis

This section highlights key first quarter spending plan changes by sector and vote-item. For information on all of the Province’s transfer payment programs and ministries, visit the FAO’s website at: https://tinyurl.com/2xmjbnnw.

Health: $14 million decrease. Notable changes include:

Justice: $190 million increase. Notable changes include:

Other Programs: $604 million increase. Notable changes include:

Actual Unaudited Spending to Date

Actual Unaudited Spending vs. Planned Spending

In order to manage and monitor its program spending during the fiscal year, the Province divides its spending plan into planned spending by quarter, which reflects historical spending patterns, seasonality and other factors. For 2023-24, the Province plans to spend $42.8 billion in the first quarter, $43.5 billion in the second quarter, $46.3 billion in the third quarter and $64.7 billion in the fourth quarter.[6]

For the first quarter of 2023-24, the Province planned to spend $42.8 billion but actual unaudited spending was $40.2 billion. This was $2.6 billion (6.1 per cent) less than planned.

Figure 12023-24 actual unaudited spending vs planned spending, by quarter, $ millions

Note: Figures exclude spending on some assets and additional spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies and the legislative offices. Planned fourth quarter spending is significantly higher than planned spending in each of the first three quarters due to year-end accrual adjustments.

FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.

By sector, the first quarter lower-than-planned spending was led by health (-$1,194 million, 6.5 per cent), ‘other programs’ (-$1,008 million, 14.3 per cent), interest on debt (-$244 million, 7.1 per cent), postsecondary education (-$160 million, 9.8 per cent) and children, community and social services (-$108 million, 2.3 per cent). Spending was above plan for two sectors: justice ($95 million, 7.4 per cent) and education ($25 million, 0.4 per cent).

Table 2 2023-24 actual unaudited spending by sector, as of June 30, 2023, $ millions Note: Figures exclude spending on some assets and additional spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies and the legislative offices. Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector Revised 2023-24 Spending Plan Planned Spending at end of Q1 Actual Unaudited Spending at end of Q1 Actual vs. Planned at end of Q1 Actual vs. Planned (%)
Health 77,076 18,360 17,165 -1,194 -6.5%
Education 36,283 6,363 6,388 25 0.4%
Postsecondary Education 7,228 1,627 1,467 -160 -9.8%
Children, Community and Social Services 19,559 4,702 4,594 -108 -2.3%
Justice 5,854 1,290 1,385 95 7.4%
Other Programs 34,360 7,044 6,036 -1,008 -14.3%
Unallocated Funds:
Contingency Fund 3,151 - - - N/A
Interest on Debt 13,764 3,432 3,189 -244 -7.1%
Total 197,275 42,818 40,224 -2,594 -6.1%

The rest of this section highlights key vote-item spending that was above and below plan in the first quarter of 2023-24. For information on spending by all of the Province’s programs and ministries, visit the FAO’s website at: https://tinyurl.com/2xmjbnnw.

Health sector spending: $1,194 million (6.5 per cent) less than planned. Highlights include:

Education sector spending: $25 million (0.4 per cent) higher than planned. Highlights include:

Postsecondary education sector spending: $160 million (9.8 per cent) less than planned. Highlights include:

Children, community and social services sector spending: $108 million (2.3 per cent) less than planned. Highlights include:

Justice sector spending: $95 million (7.4 per cent) higher than planned across a number of programs.

Other Programs sector spending: $1,008 million (14.3 per cent) less than planned. Highlights include:

2023-24 Spending vs. 2022-23 Spending

This report also compares 2023-24 actual unaudited spending against 2022-23 spending to provide context for provincial spending trends and to identify significant year-over-year spending changes.

As noted above, in the first quarter of 2023-24, the Province spent $40.2 billion. This was $0.3 billion (0.7 per cent) more than was spent in the first quarter of 2022-23. The largest year-over-year spending increase was in ‘other programs’ ($720 million, 13.5 per cent), followed by education ($428 million, 7.2 per cent), children, community and social services ($274 million, 6.3 per cent), justice ($80 million, 6.1 per cent) and postsecondary education ($3 million, 0.2 per cent). Conversely, two sectors had year-over-year spending decreases: health (‑$1,056 million, 5.8 per cent) and interest on debt (-$153 million, 4.6 per cent).

Table 3First quarter spending by sector, 2023-24 vs. 2022-23, $ millions Note: Figures exclude spending on some assets and additional spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies and the legislative offices. Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector 2023-24
Spending at end of Q1
2022-23 Spending at end of Q1 2023-24 vs.
2022-23
2023-24 vs.
2022-23 (%)
Health 17,165 18,221 -1,056 -5.8%
Education 6,388 5,960 428 7.2%
Postsecondary Education 1,467 1,465 3 0.2%
Children, Community and Social Services 4,594 4,320 274 6.3%
Justice 1,385 1,305 80 6.1%
Other Programs 6,036 5,317 720 3.5%
Interest on Debt 3,189 3,341 -153 -4.6%
Total 40,224 39,928 296 0.7%

Status of the Contingency Fund

The Contingency Fund is used to address spending pressures or fund program changes during the fiscal year. The funds within the Contingency Fund cannot be spent directly by the Province but must be transferred to government programs through Treasury Board Orders.

The Province started the 2023-24 fiscal year with a total of $4.0 billion in the Contingency Fund. In the first quarter, the Province transferred $849 million from the Contingency Fund to various programs. This results in a remaining balance in the Contingency Fund, as of June 30, of $3.2 billion.

Table 42023-24 transfers from the Contingency Fund, as of June 30, 2023, $ millions Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Ministry/Program $ millions
Opening Contingency Fund Balance 4,000
Less: First Quarter Transfers to Ministries
Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs
Ontario Wine Fund -10
Better Public Health and Environment >-1
Policy Development >-1
Ministry Administration >-1
Research >-1
Ministry of the Attorney General
Ministry Administration -11
Criminal Law -6
Administration of Justice -5
Judicial Services -1
Indigenous Justice >-1
Cabinet Office
Main Office -5
Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services
Family Responsibility Office -3
Children, Youth and Social Services Information and Information Technology Cluster -3
Ministry of Citizenship and Multiculturalism
Ministry Administration -3
Anti-Racism Directorate >-1
Citizenship, Inclusion and Heritage >-1
Ministry of Colleges and Universities
Ministry Administration >-1
Research Support Operating Expense >-1
Colleges, Universities and Student Support >-1
Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade
Industrial Land Development -158
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade – Services -200
Ministry of Education
Child Care And Early Years Program – Policy Development and Program Delivery -1
Elementary and Secondary Education Program – Policy and Program Delivery >-1
Ministry Administration >-1
Ministry of Energy
Ministry Administration >-1
Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks
Ontario Parks >-1
Environmental Compliance and Enforcement >-1
Environmental Sciences and Standards >-1
Ministry Administration >-1
Environmental Policy and Programs >-1
Environmental Assessment and Permissions >-1
Conservation and Water Protection >-1
Climate Change and Resiliency >-1
Indigenous Drinking Water Program >-1
Ministry of Finance
Tax and Benefits Administration -2
Ministry of Francophone Affairs
Francophone Affairs Co-ordination >-1
Ministry of Health
Stewardship -2
Ministry Administration -1
Population and Public Health >-1
Emergency Health services >-1
IT Services – Health Cluster >-1
Ontario Health Insurance >-1
Drug Programs >-1
Digital Health and Information Management >-1
Health Policy and Research >-1
Ministry of Indigenous Affairs
Indigenous Affairs -2
Ministry Administration -1
Ministry of Infrastructure
Transit-Oriented Communities -50
Toronto Waterfront Revitalization Corporation (Capital) -25
Ministry Administration -2
Infrastructure Policy, Planning and Projects -1
Legislative Building Reconstruction >-1
Government Real Estate >-1
Infrastructure Partnership Projects and Agency Oversight >-1
Ministry of Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development
Ministry Administration -3
Employment Ontario System -1
Ministry of Long-Term Care
Ministry Administration -4
Long-Term Care Homes Program -3
Ministry of Mines
Ministry Administration >-1
Mineral Sector Competitiveness >-1
Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
Priority Projects for Municipalities and Municipal Organizations (Capital) -24
Community and Market Housing -3
Ministry Administration -1
Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry
Sustainable Resource Management -2
Ministry Administration -1
Land and Resources Information Technology Cluster >-1
Ministry of Northern Development
Ministry Administration >-1
Northern Economic Development >-1
Ministry of Public and Business Service Delivery
Consumer Services -8
Enterprise Information and Information Technology Services -2
ServiceOntario -1
Enterprise Business and Financial Services >-1
Information, Privacy and Archives >-1
Government Services Integration Cluster >-1
Ontario Digital Services >-1
Ministry Administration >-1
Ministry for Seniors and Accessibility
Ministry Administration -1
Policy, Program, and Strategic Partnerships >-1
Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities >-1
Ministry of the Solicitor General
Corporate and Strategic Services -44
Emergency Planning and Management (Capital Asset) -33
Investigations and Organized Crime -24
Ministry Administration -23
Fleet Management -22
Federal-Provincial First Nations Policing Agreement (Capital) -16
Miscellaneous Grants – Policing Services -14
Field and Traffic Services -13
Federal-Provincial First Nations Policing Agreement (Operating) -8
External Relations Branch – Transportation and Communications -1
Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management >-1
Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport
Grants in Support of the Festival and Event Attractions and Support Program -3
Tourism and Culture Programs – Salaries and Wages >-1
Ministry Administration >-1
Agency Programs >-1
Sport, Recreation and Community >-1
Ministry of Transportation
Metrolinx Operating Subsidies -50
Business Support -4
Office of the Lieutenant Governor
Office of the Lieutenant Governor >-1
Treasury Board Secretariat
Labour Relations and Compensation -24
Centre for People, Culture and Talent -2
Central Agencies Cluster >-1
Office of the Comptroller General >-1
Emergency Management Ontario >-1
Supply Chain Transformation Office >-1
Ministry Administration >-1
Treasury Board Support and Financial Planning >-1
Total First Quarter Transfers to Ministries -849
Contingency Fund Balance as of June 30, 2023 3,151

Graphical Descriptions

Figure 12023-24 actual unaudited spending vs. planned spending, by quarter, $ millions Note: Figures exclude spending on some assets and additional spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies and the legislative offices. Planned fourth quarter spending is significantly higher than planned spending in each of the first three quarters due to year-end accrual adjustments. Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat. Return to image
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Planned Spending 42,818 43,490 46,317 64,650
Actual Unaudited Spending 40,224 - - -

Footnotes

[1] Temporary spending authority is first granted by the Legislature through the Interim Appropriation Act, with final spending authority then granted through the Supply Act. Permanent spending authority is also granted through other legislation for a limited number of programs.

[2] The $197.3 billion spending plan excludes $7.4 billion in additional planned spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies and the legislative offices. The $7.4 billion in additional planned spending is not reviewed in this report as the Province does not actively monitor or control this spending. As well, the $197.3 billion spending plan excludes $1.4 billion in planned spending on operating assets and $4.7 billion in planned spending on capital assets.

[3] Planned fourth quarter spending is significantly higher than planned spending in each of the first three quarters due to year-end accrual adjustments.

[4] Temporary spending authority is first granted by the Legislature through the Interim Appropriation Act, with final spending authority then granted through the Supply Act. Permanent spending authority is also granted through other legislation for a limited number of programs.

[5] The $197.3 billion spending plan excludes $7.4 billion in additional planned spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies and the legislative offices. The $7.4 billion in additional planned spending is not reviewed in this report as the Province does not actively monitor or control this spending. As well, the $197.3 billion spending plan excludes $1.4 billion in planned spending on operating assets and $4.7 billion in planned spending on capital assets.

[6] Planned fourth quarter spending is significantly higher than planned spending in each of the first three quarters due to year-end accrual adjustments.

[7] For more analysis see FAO, “Ministry of Education: Spending Plan Review,” 2022.