CIPI: Transportation – Assessing the financial impacts of extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles on transportation infrastructure in Ontario

For more information click here for the Costing Climate Change to Public Infrastructure portal.

Glossary of Terms

List of Abbreviations

Term	Definition
CIPI	Costing Climate Change Impacts to Public Infrastructure (project)
CRV	Current Replacement Value
IDF	Intensity-Duration-Frequency (Curve)
IPCC	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
O&M	Operation and Maintenance
RCP	Representative Concentration Pathway
SME	Subject-Matter Expert
USL	Useful Service Life
WSP	WSP Global Inc.

Definitions

Current Replacement Value: The current cost of rebuilding an infrastructure asset with the equivalent capacity, functionality and performance.

Operations and Maintenance (O&M): The routine activities performed on an asset that maximize service life and minimize service disruptions.

Rehabilitation: Repairing part or most of an asset to extend its service life, without adding to its capacity, functionality or performance.

Renewal: Replacement of an existing asset, resulting in a new or as-new asset with an equivalent capacity, functionality and performance as the original asset. Renewal is different from rehabilitation, as renewal rebuilds the entire asset.

State of Good Repair: A performance standard which helps to maximize the benefits of public infrastructure in a cost-effective manner over time, and ensures that infrastructure operates in a condition that is considered acceptable from an engineering perspective.

Stable Climate: A stable climate scenario assumes that climate indicators for extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles remain unchanged from their 1975-2005 average levels over the projection to 2100.

Rest of the Century: Refers to the 79 years from 2022 to 2100.

Baseline Cost: The operations and maintenance, rehabilitation, and renewal expense that would have been required to maintain public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair in a stable climate.

Acute Hazard: Severeclimate hazards that occur rarely (such as the 100-year storm event).

Chronic Hazard: Climate hazards that occur often.

Retrofit: An adaptation made during the asset’s service life.

Adaptation: Adaptation is modelled as an alteration of an asset’s physical components to prevent more rapid deterioration and increased O&M expenses caused by changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and/or freeze-thaw cycles. Adaptation can be done through retrofit while an asset is still in service or can be done at the time of renewal.

No Adaptation Strategy / Damage Costs: An asset management strategy where public infrastructure assets are not adapted to changing climate hazards.

Reactive Adaptation Strategy: An asset management strategy where publicinfrastructure assets are only adapted at the time of renewal to withstand changing climate conditions.

Proactive Adaptation Strategy: An asset management strategywhere public infrastructure assets are adapted at the first available opportunity to withstand changing climate conditions. This occurs either during an asset’s next major rehabilitation through a retrofit or at renewal, whichever comes first.

1 | Introduction and context

In June 2019, a Member of Provincial Parliament asked the FAO to analyze the costs that climate change impacts could impose on Ontario’s provincial and municipal infrastructure, and how those costs could impact the long-term budget outlook of the province. In response to this request, the FAO launched its Costing Climate Change Impacts to Public Infrastructure project (CIPI).

In the first two phases of the project, the FAO assessed the composition and state of repair of provincial[1] and municipal[2] infrastructure, with findings released in November 2020 and in August 2021. In fall 2021, the FAO released three reports: a project backgrounder[3] that describes the overall context and methodology of the CIPI project, a report prepared by WSP Global[4] that describes the detailed engineering impact of climate hazards on public infrastructure, and a report detailing how changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will impact the long-term costs of maintaining Ontario’s public buildings and facilities in a state of good repair.[5]

This report examines how changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will impact the long-term costs of maintaining public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair.

2 | Summary

Ontario's provincial and municipal governments manage a large portfolio of transportation infrastructure

These transportation assets, valued at $330 billion, include roads, bridges, large structural culverts and rail tracks. Ontario’s 444 municipalities own 82 per cent of this transportation infrastructure (or $269 billion), while the remaining 18 per cent ($61 billion) is owned by the Province (all costs are in 2020 real dollars).

The cost to maintain the existing portfolio in a state of good repair is substantial, even in a stable climate

If the climate was stable, it would cost $12.9 billion per year to bring these assets into a state of good repair and maintain them. Over the rest of the century, these costs would accumulate to approximately $1 trillion by 2100.

Changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles are already increasing the costs of maintaining Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure

In the absence of adaptation, these climate hazards are expected to increase the costs of maintaining Ontario’s transportation infrastructure by approximately $1.5 billion per year in this decade, above what would have occurred in a stable climate. By 2030, these climate-related costs would accumulate to $13.3 billion for provincial and municipal governments.

In the absence of adaptation, climate hazards will continue to increase the costs of maintaining Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure throughout the century

In a medium emissions scenario, where global emissions peak by mid-century, these climate hazards would increase infrastructure costs by an average of $2.2 billion per year, totalling $171 billion in additional costs by 2100. This is a 17 per cent increase in costs relative to a stable climate scenario. In the high emissions scenario, where global emissions continue rising throughout the century, transportation infrastructure costs would instead increase by $4.1 billion per year on average, totalling $322 billion by 2100. This is a 32 per cent increase in costs relative to a stable climate scenario.

Adapting public transportation infrastructure to withstand these climate hazards will cost less than not adapting over the long term

Depending on the emissions scenario, adapting public transportation infrastructure will add between $110 billion to $229 billion to infrastructure costs relative to a stable climate scenario by 2100. This represents a cost increase between 11 and 23 per cent. While significant, these additional climate-related costs are lower than those incurred in the absence of adaptation.

Costing climate impacts to public infrastructure over the long term is subject to significant uncertainty

The extent of global climate change will have a direct impact on Ontario’s public infrastructure costs. Climate-related costs will depend on the future path of global emissions, the vulnerability of infrastructure to changing climate hazards, and the pace of adaptation. The FAO’s study presents median cost projections as well as a range of possible cost outcomes in each scenario that account for this uncertainty.

This study focused on three climate hazards but excluded others, such as wildfires and ice storms. Costs to governments were estimated, but the broader economic costs to households or businesses from damaged transportation infrastructure were not included. These impacts were beyond the scope of this report but are likely material. These subjects would benefit from further research.

3 | The long-term costs of maintaining public transportation infrastructure

This chapter presents the scope of public transportation infrastructure considered in this report, discusses the costs necessary to maintain these assets in a state of good repair, and estimates the long-term infrastructure costs required to maintain infrastructure to 2100 under a stable climate. The purpose of this chapter is to establish a baseline projection of infrastructure costs. In later chapters, this baseline is compared to projections that account for changes in certain climate hazards.

There is a large portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in Ontario

This report focuses on transportation infrastructure owned and controlled by provincial and municipal governments. The FAO estimates that the current replacement value[6] (CRV) of these assets is at least $330 billion in 2022.[7] The public transportation assets included in the scope of this report are roads, bridges, large structural culverts as well as transit engineering assets:[8]

• Roads include arterial roads, collector roads, highways, lanes and alleys, local roads, rural highways, and sidewalks. In this report, road CRV represents the cost of road reconstruction.[9]
• Bridges include those located on arterial roads, collector roads, and highways, as well as local bridges and footbridges. Bridge CRV represents the cost of replacing a bridge with one of equal functionality.
• Large structural culverts include those greater than three metres in diameter. Culvert CRV represents the cost of replacing a culvert with one of equal functionality.
• Transit engineering assets include rail (tracks). Transit CRV represents the cost of replacing existing rail tracks.

Ontario’s municipal governments own $269 billion of the transportation infrastructure assets in scope (82 per cent), while the provincial government owns $61 billion (18 per cent).[10]

Maintaining a large portfolio of public transportation infrastructure requires constant spending

Keeping assets in a state of good repair helps to maximize the benefits of public infrastructure in the most cost-effective manner over time. To be maintained in a state of good repair, assets require annual operations and maintenance (O&M) spending, as well as intermittent capital spending either to rehabilitate[11] an asset or renew it at the end of its service life.[12]

The costs to maintain public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair reflect both the value of assets owned, as well as the condition, age and performance standards of each individual asset under management. For example, assets in poorer condition require more capital spending to bring them into a state of good repair. Likewise, older assets must be renewed sooner than newer assets.

To project the costs of maintaining public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair, the FAO gathered and estimated asset-specific information on age, condition and current replacement value, as well as the general performance standards used to evaluate if an asset is in a state of good repair. Using an infrastructure deterioration model based on modelling techniques developed by the Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure,[13] the FAO projected the capital and operating expenses necessary to maintain the current portfolio[14] of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair to 2100, in the absence of climate considerations.[15]

These long-term O&M, rehabilitation, and renewal spending estimates form the baseline projection against which the climate change costing scenarios will be compared. The baseline projection represents the infrastructure costs that would have been required to maintain public transportation infrastructure in a stable climate.[16] This allows the FAO to identify the additional climate-related infrastructure costs that are associated with changing climate hazards in later chapters.

Given the long useful service life of public transportation infrastructure, costs are projected to 2100. The results in this report are presented as average annual costs, as well as cumulative total costs over the century. Average annual costs are also presented over three time periods.

• The short term (2022-2030) shows how changing climate hazards are already impacting public infrastructure costs in the current decade.
• The mid-century (2031-2070) captures the period in which projections for the relevant climate variables begin to diverge in the three global emissions scenarios examined in this report (see Figure 4-3).
• The late century (2071-2100) captures the period where projections for the relevant climate variables diverge significantly in the three global emissions scenarios examined in this report.

$12.9 billion per year needed to maintain the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a stable climate

The FAO projects that bringing Ontario’s existing suite of public transportation infrastructure assets into a state of good repair and maintaining them until 2100 would have cost an average of $12.9 billion per year in a stable climate, which would accumulate to approximately $1 trillion by the end of the century. This cumulative baseline cost includes $362 billion ($4.6 billion per year) in O&M expense and $653 billion ($8.3 billion per year) in rehabilitation and renewal expense to 2100.

All infrastructure cost projections presented in this report assume that the funding necessary to bring and maintain the current portfolio of transportation infrastructure into a state of good repair is made available and spent in a timely manner. In practice, infrastructure repair backlogs exist and maintaining assets in a state of good repair is only one aspect of asset management. The baseline cost projection does not include any spending associated with assets either currently under construction, planned for future construction or necessary to meet future infrastructure demand.[17]

4 | The cost of key climate hazards to transportation infrastructure

Climate change is associated with many hazards to public infrastructure, which can take the form of extreme weather events or long-term chronic impacts. Ontario has been subject to costly floods and ice storms and is also prone to droughts, intense rainfall, wildfires, windstorms, heatwaves, and permafrost melt.[18] This project focuses on only three climate hazards – extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles – as they were determined to have broad and financially material impacts to public infrastructure and can be projected with a reasonable degree of scientific confidence.[19]

This chapter summarizes how projected changes in these climate hazards would impact Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure in the absence of adaptation measures. It then presents the FAO’s estimates of the additional long-term costs these climate hazards would impose on Ontario’s portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in medium and high emissions scenarios.

Changing extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will impact transportation infrastructure

To ensure safety and reliability, infrastructure is designed, built and maintained to withstand a specific range of climate conditions typically based on historic climatic loads.[20] However, extreme rainfall and extreme heat are projected to increase in the future, while freeze-thaw cycles are projected to decrease.[21]

Changing climate hazards will impact transportation infrastructure assets in different ways. Of all the possible hazard–asset type interactions, this report examines six impacts: extreme rainfall and extreme heat on roads, extreme rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles on bridges, extreme rainfall on large structural culverts, and extreme heat on transit engineering (Figure 4-1). The following section provides an overview of how these climate hazards will impact the different asset types.[22]

Roads

Extreme rainfall will impact road infrastructure most significantly in acute events (i.e., 100-year storm events[23]) as roads are typically considered resilient to less-intense rainfall events. Washouts and flooding during severe rainfall events can overwhelm drainage features and damage pavement. Extreme rainfall can also cause water to penetrate the base and sub-base materials, leading to increased deterioration and cracking.

Extreme heat in the form of ambient temperatures over 30°C creates conditions where heat dissipates less efficiently, softening the asphalt pavement. This increases the road’s vulnerability to rutting and cracking, which can lead to increased water infiltration, weakening the base/sub-base and causing surface issues such as potholes.

Freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) are fluctuations between freezing and non-freezing temperatures that cause water to freeze (and expand) or melt (and contract). In contrast to vertical infrastructure (e.g., buildings) where less water accumulates due to gravity runoff, horizontal infrastructure like roads have the potential to accumulate water that penetrates sub-layers. The melting and re-freezing of accumulated water can then damage road surfaces. While the FAO conducted a preliminary analysis of this impact, there was low confidence in the costing results due to the lack of research on the combined impacts of moisture and frost conditions on roads. As such, the costing results for freeze-thaw cycles on roads were excluded from this report.

Bridges

Extreme rainfall will impact bridges as acute events (i.e., 100-year storm events) through runoff and flooding. These events will erode embankments and approaches, as well as scour and erode both bridge substructures and shallow bridge foundations. Deep bridge foundations will be negligibly impacted.

Freeze-thaw cycles contribute to the weathering of bridge decks and barriers, causing concrete cracking. However, the projected decline in the number of annual freeze-thaw cycles will increase the service life of vertical concrete. FTCs are not expected to significantly impact other bridge components, including the superstructure, substructure, and the layer below the asphalt pavement.[24]

Large Structural Culverts

Extreme rainfall will impact large structural culverts as acute events (i.e., 100-year storm events) through increased erosion. Channel protection will also be vulnerable to washout and scour damages.

Transit Engineering

Extreme heat in the form of chronically high ambient temperatures over 30°C can cause stress on steel rail tracks and other alignment components such as rail brace, tie plates and insulated joints. Higher temperatures also increase friction between train wheels and tracks, potentially resulting in track buckling. Just a few hours of above-average heat are enough to cause problems, with buckling probability increasing rapidly once temperatures exceed around 35°C.[25]

Most climate hazards to public transportation infrastructure will increase

The impacts of changing climate hazards on Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure will depend on the path of global greenhouse gas emissions and the extent of global mean temperature increases. The FAO costed climate impacts to public transportation infrastructure for three global emissions scenarios:

Figure 4-3 presents a brief description of the projected changes in the climate indicators used to represent these hazards. Appendix B contains a full description of all relevant climate variables to public transportation infrastructure, and their trends in all scenarios.

Climate hazards are raising the cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure

In this section, the FAO presents the cost projections in a no adaptation asset management strategy. In this strategy, asset managers do not adapt public transportation infrastructure to withstand changing climate hazards, but instead pay higher costs to maintain their assets in a state of good repair in the face of increasing climate hazards. While in practice there are many climate change adaptation initiatives under way, the intent of the no adaptation strategy is to explore the financial implications of not adapting public transportation infrastructure to these climate hazards.

In the absence of adaptation actions, increasing extreme weather events will shorten the useful service life (USL) of public transportation infrastructure, requiring more frequent and additional rehabilitations relative to the “stable climate” scenario. Changing climate hazards will also result in higher spending on operations and maintenance (O&M). Taken together, these factors will increase the costs of maintaining the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair. These additional infrastructure costs, above what would have occurred in a stable climate, are defined as “damage costs.”

In the medium emissions scenario (median projection), the average annual cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair will increase by $2.2 billion per year over the century.This represents a 17 per cent increase in costs over what would have occurred in a stable climate. These average annual costs fluctuate from $1.4 billion per year this decade, to $2.4 billion in the mid-century period as climate hazards continue to moderately deteriorate. By late century, these costs amount to $2.1 billion per year as climate hazards stabilize in this period in the medium emissions scenario (see Figure 4-3).

In the medium emissions scenario (median projection), the cumulative cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair will increase by $171 billion over the century.This represents a 17 per cent increase in costs over what would have occurred in a stable climate. These cumulative costs could range from $89 billion to $298 billion given the climate and engineering uncertainties.

In the high emissions scenario (median projection), the cumulative cost would instead increase by $322 billion (a 32 per cent increase), with a range of $180 billion to $522 billion.

5 | Adapting public transportation infrastructure to climate hazards

Chapter 4 described the financial impact of not adapting public transportation infrastructure to the projected changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles. In practice, transportation infrastructure can be adapted to withstand these impacts – ensuring that assets perform to the same standards for which they were initially designed and avoiding accelerated deterioration or higher O&M expenses.

This chapter discusses different forms of adaptation, defines the scope of adaptation analyzed in this report, and estimates a range of costs to adapt Ontario’s portfolio of public transportation infrastructure to withstand the late-century climate projections for extreme rainfall and extreme heat in the medium and high emissions scenarios.[31]

Adapting public transportation infrastructure can help prevent the impacts of climate hazards

Adapting transportation infrastructure to changing climate hazards could take many forms. A few examples include:

• updating infrastructure design parameters to a higher standard, including those detailed in the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code;[33]
• using Intensity-Duration-Frequency tools that project future rainfall intensities for the design and replacement of transportation infrastructure;[34]
• using pavement mixes for roads with higher heat tolerance;[35]
• expanding the drainage capacity of culverts;[36]
• using thermosyphons to maintain permafrost stability and improve northern road and highway performance;[37] and
• changing the way assets are managed, for example, altering the frequency of operations and maintenance schedules.[38]

In the FAO’s framework, adaptation is modelled as an alteration of the physical components of transportation infrastructure to prevent damage costs caused by changing climate hazards.[39] Figure 5‑2 presents some examples of adaptation measures for transportation infrastructure components.[40]

Adaptation strategy costs vary based on the approach taken

To estimate adaptation costs, the FAO assumed that public transportation infrastructure is adapted at the time of rehabilitation or renewal to withstand the late-century projections[41] of each climate hazard.[42] Once an asset is adapted, the FAO assumes that it no longer faces additional O&M and capital expenses due to changing climate hazards.[43] However, since adaptation increases the value of an asset, its post-adaptation O&M and capital expenses also increase, reflecting its higher value.

The additional infrastructure costs of an adaptation strategy include: higher capital expenses from increased deterioration and higher O&M expenses until adaptation, a one-time adaptation expense (either through a retrofit or renewal), and higher O&M and capital expenses required to maintain higher-valued adapted assets. The costs presented in this chapter would occur instead of those estimated in the no adaptation strategy presented in Chapter 4.

The costs of an adaptation strategy would vary based on when the adaptation actions are undertaken. To highlight how the costs could vary, the FAO developed two adaptation strategies.

• Reactive adaptation strategy: Transportation assets are only adapted at the time of renewal. This approach results in a gradual increase in the share of adapted assets over the century, with roughly 90 per cent of assets adapted by 2100. The remaining 10 per cent have service lives that extend beyond 2100 and are not renewed or adapted over the projection.
• Proactive adaptation strategy: Transportation assets are adapted at the first available opportunity. This occurs either during an asset’s next major rehabilitation through a retrofit[44] or at renewal, whichever comes first. In this approach, all transportation assets are adapted by the 2050s.

Projecting public transportation infrastructure costs in the reactive adaptation strategy

In the medium emissions scenario (median projection), the average annual cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair will increase by $1.7 billion per year over the century.This represents a 13 per cent increase in costs over what would have occurred in a stable climate. These average annual costs fluctuate from $1.6 billion per year this decade, to $2.4 billion in the mid-century period as the share of adapted assets rises from nine per cent in 2030 to 66 per cent in 2070. By late century, these costs decline to $0.8 billion per year as adapted public transportation assets avoid damage costs associated with late century climate conditions (see Figure 5-3).

In the high emissions scenario (median projection), average annual infrastructure costs would instead increase by $2.9 billion per year over the century, a 23 per cent increase in costs relative to the stable climate scenario. In this case, climate-related costs increase from $2.1 billion this decade, to an average of $3.4 billion in the mid-century period, then declining to $2.5 billion in the late century period. Costs in this scenario reflect higher damage costs from more extreme climate hazards, as well as higher adaptation costs to enable public transportation infrastructure to withstand these hazards.

Projecting public transportation infrastructure costs in the proactive adaptation strategy

In the proactive adaptation strategy,transportation assets are adapted at the first available opportunity. It is assumed that over 50 per cent of infrastructure assets are adapted by 2030 and 100 per cent are adapted by 2070 (see Figure 5-3).

In the medium emissions scenario (median projection), the average annual cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair will increase by $1.4 billion per year over the century.This represents an 11 per cent increase in costs over what would have occurred in a stable climate. These average annual costs decline from $2.9 billion per year this decade (when over half of public transportation assets are assumed to be adapted), to $1.4 billion in the mid-century period, and to $1.0 billion per year by late century, as adapted public transportation assets avoid damage costs associated with late century climate conditions (see Figure 5-7).

In the high emissions scenario (median projection), average annual infrastructure costs would instead increase by $2.7 billion per year over the century, a 21 per cent increase in costs relative to the stable climate scenario. In this case, climate-related costs decline from $5.2 billion per year this decade, to an average of $2.8 billion in the mid-century period, then declining to $2.0 billion in the late century period. Costs in this scenario reflect higher damage costs from more extreme climate hazards, as well as higher adaptation costs to enable public transportation infrastructure to withstand these hazards.

6 | Comparing different asset management strategies

Chapters 4 and 5 examined the costs of maintaining public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair in the presence of climate change under three asset management strategies: no adaptation, reactive adaptation and proactive adaptation. None of the strategies presented in this report are meant to be a precise representation of future costs, and the portfolio level costing results are not intended to inform asset-specific management decisions. These strategies were designed to estimate the scale of the budgetary impact that changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will impose on the Province and municipalities over the rest of the century.

This chapter compares cost estimates across the three asset management strategies and discusses the difference in cost profiles between them. The chapter then discusses the factors that were beyond the scope of the FAO’s analysis but are relevant in determining the most cost-effective strategy for managing Ontario's public transportation infrastructure in a changing climate.

Adapting public transportation infrastructure is less expensive than not adapting over the long term

The financial impact of extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will be material to the Province and municipalities regardless of which asset management strategy is pursued. However, the FAO estimates that on an undiscounted basis, the cumulative costs by the end of the 21st century are the highest under the no adaptation strategy and lowest under the proactive adaptation strategy under both emissions scenarios. For a discussion of these cost profiles on a discounted basis, see Appendix D.

Figure 6-1 shows that the future path of global climate change will influence the extent of additional climate-related infrastructure costs, which are much lower in the medium emissions scenario than in the high emissions scenario (median projections) across all asset management strategies.

Proactively adapting public transportation infrastructure requires higher upfront costs but rapidly reduces climate vulnerability

Figure 6-2 shows how costs accumulate in the medium and high emissions scenarios (median projections) under the three asset management strategies.

In the first half of the century, the cost profiles of the no adaptation strategy and the reactive adaptation strategyare similar, as damage costs from worsening climate hazards are incurred in both strategies. These costs profiles diverge in the second half of the century as the impact of more frequent and intense climate hazards becomes more costly in the no adaptation strategy, whereas these costs are avoided in the reactive adaptation strategy since over 66 per cent of public transportation assets are adapted by 2070 (see Figure 5-3).

The proactive adaptation strategy sees a substantial accumulation in costs over the next four decades as all assets are adapted by the 2050s, rapidly reducing the vulnerability of Ontario’s transportation infrastructure to these changing climate hazards. The result is a much slower accumulation of costs in the second half of the century, as climate damages are avoided. By the end of the century, the proactive adaptation strategy results in the lowest cumulative additional costs of the three strategies in real 2020 dollars.

Costs to households and businesses should be included in assessing the cost-effectiveness of adaptation action

This report accounts for the direct infrastructure costs to government but excludes any costs to households or businesses from infrastructure service disruptions. For example, if a municipal road becomes damaged and must be repaired, this analysis includes only the cost of those repairs to the municipality, not the costs to households and businesses of traffic delays.[47]

Examples of costs to households and businesses include the following:

• Traffic congestion occurs during the rehabilitation and renewal of transportation assets, slowing travel times and impacting productivity. For example, a recent Canadian Climate Institute study of the climate impacts to public infrastructure states that: “…the costs of delays and travel disruptions on road and rail systems could be nearly as high as the costs of direct physical damage to the infrastructure itself.”[48]
• Beyond the delay costs, climate-related disruptions to transportation networks would impact supply chains, the labour market and the economy more broadly.[49]
• Climate-related disruptions to transportation networks also have non-financial costs, including increased response times to health and environmental emergencies,[50] or higher risks of being cut off from vital services in rural and remote communities.

Costing these broader societal impacts was beyond the scope of this report. These costs are likely to be material and if added, would likely show further benefits of adapting public transportation infrastructure. Estimating these impacts would be a useful area of future research.

Making asset-specific adaptation decisions should consider many other factors

Costing three different asset management strategies at the portfolio level was designed to estimate the scale of the budgetary impact that changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles could impose over the rest of the century. However, to make asset-specific climate adaptation decisions, many other factors should be considered,[51] including:

• an asset’s individual characteristics (including age, condition and specific climate vulnerabilities);
• a wider array of climate impacts over the entire useful life of an asset;
• costs to households and businesses; and
• non-asset related considerations, including surrounding infrastructure. For example, if a section of stormwater pipe located underneath a road is being replaced (or adapted), adapting the road may also be considered.

Incorporating these factors would further enhance the FAO’s methodology and would better support adaptation decision-making for individual assets in a changing climate.

7 | Appendix

Appendix A: Scope of transportation sector assets analyzed

Table A-1: Provincial and municipal transportation infrastructure valued at $330 billion (current replacement value) included in the scope of this report

Note: The age data presented are as of 2020. The CRV of provincial and municipal roads has been revised to incorporate the unit costs from the Parametric Estimating Guide (2021) by the MTO. For the detailed methodology used to obtain the CRV of rest of the sectors, see Appendix C of the FAO’s Provincial Infrastructure report and Appendix D of the FAO’s Municipal Infrastructure report.

Source: FAO analysis of municipal data and provincial data as detailed in Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2020 and 2021a.

Level of Government	Sector	Total CRV (2020$ billions)	Description
Provincial	Roads	$19	Roads and highways in Ontario are managed by the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) in partnership with the Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Mines, and Ministry of Northern Development. These assets include the highway and road network owned by the Province. In total, there are over 40,000 lane kilometres of pavement. Of the 40,000 lane kilometres of pavement, the Northern Highways Program (Ministry of Mines, and Ministry of Northern Development as well as MTO) manages about 24,000 lane kilometres in the Northeast and Northwest regions, and the Southern Highways Program (MTO) manages about 17,000 lane kilometres. The 40,000 lane kilometres of pavements are also divided into around 1,900 sections and include four classes of highways and roads: freeway (28 per cent), collector (12 per cent), arterial (38 per cent) and local (22 per cent). This sector also includes bus rapid transit roadways owned by Metrolinx.
	Bridges	$23	There are roughly 2,800 provincially owned bridges.
	Large Structural Culverts (>3 metres)	$5	There are roughly 2,000 provincially owned culverts.
	Transit Engineering	$13	Ontario’s transit assets are owned by Metrolinx, which operates primarily in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area, and Ontario Northland Transportation Commission (ONTC), which operates primarily in northeastern Ontario. Metrolinx owns the GO Transit network, which includes about 360 route kilometres of owned rail corridor.
Municipal	Roads	$221	Includes arterial roads, collector roads, highways, lanes and alleys, local roads, rural highways and sidewalks. Overall, Ontario municipalities own an estimated 365,281 lane kilometres of roads and 44,072 kilometres of sidewalks. Additionally, includes 141 kilometres of transit-owned roads.
	Bridges	$35	Includes nearly 12,500 bridges. Nearly 45 per cent of these assets are local bridges, followed by arterials (25 per cent) and collectors (15 per cent), with highways, footbridges and rural highways representing the remaining 15 per cent. Additionally, includes 209 bridges owned by the transit sector.
	Large Structural Culverts (>3 metres)	$7	Includes nearly 11,246 culverts.
	Transit Engineering	$6	Linear engineering transit infrastructure includes an estimated 408 kilometres of transit-owned tracks.

Appendix B: Scope of climate variables used in costing analysis

The Canadian Centre for Climate Services provided the projections of all climate indicators used in the FAO’s costing analysis. Depending on the nature of the hazard’s interaction with specific transportation infrastructure components, different climate indicators were used. See WSP’s report for a full description and rationale.[52]

Table B-1: Projected change in relevant climate variables from 1976-2005 to 2071-2100, Ontario average

Note: Numbers are rounded. Median (50th percentile) projections of climate variables are presented, followed by ranges in parentheses. Ranges show the 10th and 90th percentile projections.

Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Services.

Climate Hazard	Variable	Definition	Low Emissions (RCP2.6)	Medium Emissions (RCP4.5)	High Emissions (RCP8.5)
Extreme Heat	Annual number of hot days	Annual number of days with daily maximum temperature above 30°C	+6 days or +138.9% (+2 to 10 days or +64.2 to 223.1%)	+13 days or +336.5% (+6 to 18 days or +167.8 to 422.0%)	+34 days or +860.7% (+17 to 46 days or +493.8 to 1050.6%)
Extreme Rainfall	IDF 24-hour 1:100	Short duration rainfall intensity for a 24-hour 1-in-100-year event	+14.6% (+9.8 to 23.5%)	+24.9% (+16.1 to 39.4%)	+53.0% (+38.0 to 78.2%)
Freeze-Thaw Cycles	Annual freeze-thaw cycles	Annual number of days with daily maximum temperature above 0°C and daily minimum temperature below 0°C	-5.5% (-15.2 to 0.0%)	-12.1% (-19.2 to 0.0%)	-15.1% (-24.9 to 0.0%)

The full suite of climate data used in the CIPI project is available at the CIPI section of the FAO’s website.

Appendix C: The impact of changing climate hazards on key transportation infrastructure costs

This appendix presents the impact of climate hazards on the key infrastructure costs for roads, bridges, large structural culverts and transit engineering assets. First, the appendix presents the total impact of the climate hazards considered in this study on the useful service life (USL) and operations and maintenance (O&M) spending in the absence of adaptation, as well as the costs of retrofit and renewal adaptation to prevent these climate damages. Next, the appendix presents a detailed breakdown of the impact of each climate hazard on O&M spending and USL by asset type.

To establish relationships between relevant climate indicators and key infrastructure costs, the FAO worked with WSP, a large engineering firm with expertise in all aspects of public sector infrastructure, including asset management, public infrastructure construction and operations, and climate change impacts.

The FAO and WSP first established which of the three climate hazards could have the most significant impact, and on which asset type. As each hazard would interact with each asset-type in a different way, it was agreed that WSP would focus attention on the “interactions” that could present the greatest financial impact to asset managers. For example, while extreme heat may impact bridges, because the impact of extreme rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles was deemed more important, only these hazards were examined.

WSP estimated relationships between changing climate variables and infrastructure costs by surveying relevant engineering experts. To account for engineering uncertainty, WSP aggregated its responses and provided optimistic, pessimistic and most-likely cost relationships.[53] This forms the basis on which the FAO estimated the additional costs of climate hazards to public transportation infrastructure in Ontario.[54] ­­

While regional climate projections were used to develop the FAO’s infrastructure cost estimates, for simplicity, this appendix presents Ontario-average infrastructure cost results by asset type. The results reflect a weighted average climate projection based on the proportion of assets (by CRV) located in each region.[55] The charts below provide three estimates for each infrastructure cost impact in the medium and high emissions scenarios:

• The solid lines represent the most likely infrastructure cost impact for the 50th percentile climate projection.
• The upper limit of the uncertainty bands represents the pessimistic infrastructure cost impact for the 90th percentile climate projection.
• The lower limit of the uncertainty bands represents the optimistic infrastructure cost impacts of the 10th percentile climate projection.

Figure C-1: Roads – Cumulative impact of extreme rainfall and extreme heat

Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario.

Source: FAO.

Accessible version

In Absence of Adaptation Useful Service Life Trends in extreme rainfall and extreme heat are projected to reduce the USL of public roads in Ontario in both emissions scenarios. In the medium emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 12.1 per cent by the end of the century. In the high emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 31.1 per cent by the end of the century. Operations & Maintenance Trends in extreme rainfall and extreme heat are projected to increase the O&M (as a share of CRV) of public roads in Ontario in both emissions scenario. In the medium emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 0.6 percentage point of CRV by the end of the century. In the high emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 1.5 percentage points of CRV by the end of the century. Adaptation Costs Retrofit Costs The cost of retrofitting the average public road to withstand the trends in extreme rainfall and extreme heat will vary with the extent of these increases. In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public road is projected to be 10.2 per cent of CRV by 2100. In the high emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public road is projected to be 25.9 per cent of CRV by 2100. Renewal Costs The cost of replacing the average public road with one that can withstand trends in extreme rainfall and extreme heat will vary with the extent of these increases. In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average road with an adapted one is projected to be 9.4 per cent of CRV. In the high emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average road with an adapted one is projected to be 23.8 per cent of CRV.

Figure C-2: Bridges – Cumulative impact of extreme rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles

Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario.

Source: FAO.

Accessible version

In Absence of Adaptation Useful Service Life The USL of public bridges is projected to decline due to the increase in extreme rainfall, with significant offsetting impacts of fewer freeze-thaw cycles. In the medium emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 0.6 per cent by the end of the century. In the high emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 2.6 per cent by the end of the century. Operations & Maintenance The O&M as a share of CRV of bridges is projected to increase due to the increase in extreme rainfall. In the medium emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage point of CRV by the end of the century. In the high emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 1.3 percentage points of CRV by the end of the century. Adaptation Costs Retrofit Costs The cost of retrofitting the average public bridge to withstand increases in extreme rainfall will vary with the extent of these increases. In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public bridge is projected to be 3.1 per cent of CRV by 2100. In the high emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public bridge is projected to be 7.5 per cent of CRV by 2100. Renewal Costs The cost of replacing the average public bridge with one that can withstand increases in extreme rainfall will vary with the extent of these increases. In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average bridge with an adapted one is projected to be 2.8 per cent of CRV. In the high emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average bridge with an adapted one is projected to be 6.7 per cent of CRV.

Figure C-3: Large structural culverts – Impact of extreme rainfall

Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario.

Source: FAO.

Accessible version

In Absence of Adaptation Useful Service Life Increases in extreme rainfall are projected to reduce the USL of large structural culverts in Ontario in both emissions scenarios. In the medium emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 13.1 per cent by the end of the century. In the high emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 31.3 per cent by the end of the century. Operations & Maintenance Increases in extreme rainfall are projected to increase the O&M (as a share of CRV) of public culverts in Ontario in both emissions scenarios. In the medium emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 1.0 percentage point of CRV by the end of the century. In the high emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 2.5 percentage points of CRV by the end of the century. Adaptation Costs Retrofit Costs The cost of retrofitting the average public culvert to withstand increases in extreme rainfall will vary with the extent of these increases. In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public culvert is projected to be 24.6 per cent of CRV by 2100. In the high emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public culvert is projected to be 58.9 per cent of CRV by 2100. Renewal Costs The cost of replacing the average public culvert with one that can withstand increases in extreme rainfall will vary with the extent of these increases. In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average culvert with an adapted one is projected to be 10.5 per cent of CRV. In the high emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average culvert with an adapted one is projected to be 25.1 per cent of CRV.

Figure C-4: Transit engineering – Impact of extreme heat

Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario.

Source: FAO.

Accessible version

In Absence of Adaptation Useful Service Life Increases in extreme heat are projected to reduce the USL of public transit engineering assets in Ontario in both emissions scenarios. In the medium emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 2.8 per cent by the end of the century. In the high emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 7.9 per cent by the end of the century. Operations & Maintenance Increases in extreme heat are projected to increase the O&M (as a share of CRV) of public transit engineering assets in Ontario in both emissions scenarios. In the medium emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 0.4 percentage point of CRV by the end of the century. In the high emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 1.2 percentage points of CRV by the end of the century. Adaptation Costs Retrofit Costs The cost of retrofitting the average public transit engineering asset to withstand the increases in extreme heat will vary with the extent of these increases. In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting an average asset is projected to be 6.4 per cent of CRV by 2100. In the high emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting an average asset is projected to be 18.0 per cent of CRV by 2100. Renewal Costs The cost of replacing the average public transit engineering asset with one that can withstand increases in extreme heat will vary with the extent of these increases. In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average asset with an adapted one is projected to be 2.2 per cent of CRV. In the high emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average asset with an adapted one is projected to be 6.2 per cent of CRV.

Appendix D: The contribution of individual climate hazards to key transportation infrastructure costs in the absence of adaptation

This section provides information on how the individual climate hazards deemed financially relevant by WSP contribute to infrastructure costs for asset types that are impacted by more than one climate hazard. Since only one climate hazard was assessed for both large structural culverts and transit engineering assets, climate hazard breakdowns are not presented for these asset types.

Roads

Trends in extreme rainfall and extreme heat are both projected to drive the decline in USL and increase in O&M spending of public roads in Ontario.

Bridges

Trends in extreme rainfall are projected to drive most of the decline in USL of public bridges in Ontario, while fewer freeze-thaw cycles will somewhat offset the negative impacts of extreme rainfall.

Appendix E: Comparing the present value costs of different asset management strategies

As seen in Chapter 6, each asset management strategy has a different cost profile over time. The proactive adaptation strategy sees higher costs earlier in the century, while the no adaptation and reactive adaptation strategies see costs rise significantly in the latter part of the century. When evaluating alternative long-term financial decisions where the timing of costs varies, a standard approach is to discount real costs into present value dollars using a real discount rate. When discounted, costs incurred further in the future carry less weight relative to costs incurred sooner.

The appropriate discount rate for evaluating long-term financial decisions about climate change is subject to significant debate.[56] In a paper surveying over 200 experts, discount rates recommended ranged from zero to 10 per cent, with a median value of 2.3 per cent. Despite the wide range of recommended rates, over 90 per cent of respondents indicated they were comfortable with a rate between one and three per cent.[57]

Figure E-1 shows how the choice of discount rate impacts the present value of the total cost estimates for the median climate projections.

The proactive adaptation strategy has the lowest total present value costs at discount rates approximately below 3.0 per cent (medium emissions scenario) and 1.0 per cent (high emissions scenario). The reactive adaptation strategy has the lowest present value costs at discount rates between 3.0 to 5.0 per cent (medium emissions scenario) and between 1.0 to 4.0 per cent (high emissions scenario). At higher discount rates, the present-value costs of the no adaptation strategy and the reactive adaptation strategy are essentially the same, as the cost savings from thereactive adaptationstrategy are more heavily discounted at higher rates.

However, comparing the present value costs of the different adaptation strategies as outlined above should be treated with caution. This comparison does not incorporate the costs of infrastructure service disruptions to households and businesses. For example, if a road becomes damaged and must be repaired, this analysis includes the cost of those repairs, but excludes the costs to households and businesses of traffic delays.

In addition, this comparison only includes the impacts of three climate hazards, and excludes many others (such as wildfires and permafrost degradation). Lastly, these results reflect the median projections for the medium and high emissions projections, but exclude the other possible outcomes as estimated by the climate and engineering uncertainties presented throughout the report.

Appendix F: Costing results in the low emissions scenario

While the report focused on the medium and high emissions scenario, this appendix presents the costing results of the three adaptation strategies for all emissions scenarios. The additional climate-related costs in each emissions scenario are presented as cumulative summations over the century.

In the low emissions scenario, a major and immediate turnaround in global climate policies is assumed. Emissions are projected to peak in the early 2020s and decline to zero by the 2080s, limiting the rise in global mean temperatures to 1.6°C (0.8 to 2.4°C) by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial average.[58] Even in the low emissions scenario, changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will still have material financial impacts. Taken together, these hazards would raise the costs of maintaining Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure assets by $116 billion (11 per cent above baseline) by 2100 in the absence of adaptation.

Appendix G: Breakdown of cumulative costs under different adaptation strategies by asset type

Table G‑1: Roads

Source: FAO.

			Cumulative Additional Costs (2022-2100)
Emissions Scenario	Estimate	Base	No Adaptation ($ Billions)	Reactive Adaptation ($ Billions)	Proactive Adaptation ($ Billions)
Medium	Low	$791	$73 (9%)	$58 (7%)	$46 (6%)
	Median		$133 (17%)	$106 (13%)	$96 (12%)
	High		$238 (30%)	$184 (23%)	$177 (22%)
High	Low		$152 (19%)	$109 (14%)	$107 (14%)
	Median		$258 (33%)	$179 (23%)	$191 (24%)
	High		$420 (53%)	$292 (37%)	$331 (42%)

Table G‑2: Bridges

* Costs in the proactive adaptation strategy are below baseline costs, since the cost decrease due to declining freeze-thaw cycles more than offsets the increase from extreme rainfall in these scenarios.

Source: FAO.

			Cumulative Additional Costs (2022-2100)
Emissions Scenario	Estimate	Base	No Adaptation ($ Billions)	Reactive Adaptation ($ Billions)	Proactive Adaptation ($ Billions)
Medium	Low	$110	$8 (7%)	$4 (4%)	-$4 * (-4%)
	Median		$19 (17%)	$15 (14%)	$5 (4%)
	High		$33 (30%)	$30 (27%)	$18 (16%)
High	Low		$15 (13%)	$8 (8%)	-$6 * (-5%)
	Median		$35 (31%)	$28 (25%)	$9 (8%)
	High		$53 (48%)	$47 (43%)	$29 (26%)

Table G‑3: Large structural culverts

Source: FAO.

			Cumulative Additional Costs (2022-2100)
Emissions Scenario	Estimate	Base	No Adaptation ($ Billions)	Reactive Adaptation ($ Billions)	Proactive Adaptation ($ Billions)
Medium	Low	$22	$4 (18%)	$4 (17%)	$3 (14%)
	Median		$11 (48%)	$9 (42%)	$6 (29%)
	High		$16 (73%)	$14 (65%)	$10 (46%)
High	Low		$7 (34%)	$7 (32%)	$6 (27%)
	Median		$18 (80%)	$15 (69%)	$11 (49%)
	High		$31 (139%)	$26 (120%)	$17 (78%)

Table G‑4: Transit engineering

Note: The low estimates indicate the optimistic infrastructure cost impact for the 10th percentile climate projections, and the high estimate indicate the pessimistic infrastructure cost impact for the 90th percentile climate projections

Source: FAO.

			Cumulative Additional Costs (2022-2100)
Emissions Scenario	Estimate	Base	No Adaptation ($ Billions)	Reactive Adaptation ($ Billions)	Proactive Adaptation ($ Billions)
Medium	Low	$92	$4 (4%)	$1 (1%)	$1 (1%)
	Median		$8 (8%)	$5 (5%)	$3 (3%)
	High		$11 (12%)	$7 (7%)	$5 (5%)
High	Low		$6 (7%)	$4 (4%)	$4 (4%)
	Median		$11 (12%)	$7 (7%)	$6 (7%)
	High		$18 (20%)	$9 (10%)	$9 (10%)

8 | References

Asset Management BC, Climate Change and Asset Management: A Sustainable Service Delivery Primer.

Bush, E. and Lemmen, D.S., editors, 2019, Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues Report – Chapter 6: Costs and Benefits of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON.

Canadian Standards Association, 2014, Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code.

Cannon, A.J., Jeong, D.I., Zhang, X., and Zwiers, F.W., 2020, Climate-Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure: An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Climatic Design Data in Canada, Government of Canada.

Chinowsky, P., Helman, J., Gulati, S., Neumann, J., and Martinich, J., 2019, Impacts of climate change on operation of the US rail network. Transport Policy (75), 183-191.

Drupp, M., Freeman, M., Groom, B., and Nesje, F., 2015, Discounting disentangled: an expert survey on the determinants of the long-term social discount rate. Working Paper172. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom.

Federation of Canadian Municipalities, 2020, Investing in Canada’s Future: The Cost of Climate Adaptation at the Local Level.

Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2020, Provincial Infrastructure.

Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021a, Municipal Infrastructure.

Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021b, Costing Climate Change Impacts to Public Infrastructure: Project Backgrounder and Methodology.

Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021c, Costing Climate Change Impacts to Public Infrastructure: Assessing the financial impacts of extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles on public buildings in Ontario.

Government of Canada, 2019, Infrastructure Canada’s Climate Lens.

Government of Canada, 2021, Natural Resources Canada’s Canada’s Climate Change Adaptation Platform.

Government of Canada, 2022, Infrastructure Canada’s Climate-Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure Initiative

HDR, 2008, Costs of Road Congestion in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area: Impact and Cost Benefit Analysis of the Metrolinx Draft Regional Transportation Plan. Report produced for Metrolinx.

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, 2020,Estimating the benefits of Climate Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure (CRBCPI).

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Chapter 17: Economics of Adaptation.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers.

International Institute of Sustainable Development, 2021,Advancing the Climate Resilience of Canadian Infrastructure: A review of literature to inform the way forward.

Meyer, M.D., Amekudzi, A., and O’Har, J.P., 2010, Transportation asset management systems and climate change: adaptive systems management approach. Transportation Research Record, (2160), 12-20.

Ness, R., Clark, D. G., Bourque, J., Coffman, D., and Beugin, D., 2021, Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure, Canadian Climate Institute.

Neumann, J.E., Chinowsky, P., Helman, J.et al., 2021, Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development.Climatic Change(167),44.

Ontario Ministry of Transportation, 2017, Addressing Climate Change through Engineering Practice.

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2018, Climate-Resilient Infrastructure.

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, 2021, PCIC Science Brief: Should the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario represent “business as usual?”.

Palko, K. and Lemmen, D.S., editors, 2017, Climate risks and adaptation practices for the Canadian transportation sector 2016.

Transport Canada, 2021, Projects funded by the Northern Transportation Adaptation Initiative.

United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), 2021, Buildings and Climate Change Adaptation: A Call to Action.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2011, Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Options: An Overview of Approaches.

Warren, F.J. and Lemmen, D.S., editors, 2014, Canada in a Changing Climate: Sector Perspectives on Impacts and Adaptation, Government of Canada.

Warren, F.J. and Lulham, N., editors, 2021, Canada in a Changing Climate:National Issues Report, Government of Canada.

WSP, 2021, Costing climate change impacts and adaptation for provincial and municipal public infrastructure in Ontario, Deliverable #10 – Final Report, Toronto, Ontario. Report produced for Financial Accountability Office of Ontario.

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About This Document

Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

This report was prepared by Sabrina Afroz, Nicolas Rhodes, and Jay Park under the direction of Edward Crummey. This report benefitted from contributions from Christina Rachmadita, Mavis Yang, Katrina Talavera, Laura Irish, Paul Lewis and David West. External reviewers were provided with earlier drafts of this report for their comments. However, the input of external reviewers implies no responsibility for this final report, which rests solely with the FAO.

In keeping with the FAO’s mandate to provide the Legislative Assembly of Ontario with independent economic and financial analysis, this report makes no policy recommendations.

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Graphical Descriptions

Figure 2-1 Adapting Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure will cost Provincial and municipal governments less than not adapting in a changing climate

Note: The costs in this chart are based on the median (or 50th percentile) projection under each emissions scenario and are in addition to the baseline costs over the same period. For presentation purposes, the uncertainty bands are not shown in this figure.

Source: FAO.

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	Medium Emissions Scenario	High Emissions Scenario
No adaptation - additional climate-related costs	$171	$322
Reactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs	$135	$229
Proactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs	$110	$217

Figure 3-1 Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure covered in this report has a current replacement value of $330 billion

Note: CRV estimates are in real 2020 billion dollars. Percentage values refer to a sector’s share of total CRV.

Source: FAO.

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Level of Government	Sector	CRV	Share
Municipal	Bridges	$35	10%
	Large Structural Culverts	$7	2%
	Roads	$221	67%
	Transit Engineering	$6	2%
Provincial	Bridges	$23	7%
	Large Structural Culverts	$5	2%
	Roads	$19	6%
	Transit Engineering	$13	4%

Figure 3-3 Maintaining Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure in a stable climate would have cost $12.9 billion per year

Source: FAO.

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	2022-2030	2031-2070	2071-2100	2022-2100
Stable Climate	$ 11.0	$ 13.4	$ 12.6	$ 12.9

Figure 4-1 Scope of interactions between selected climate hazards and public transportation asset types

Source: WSP and FAO.

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	Extreme Heat	Extreme Rainfall	Freeze-thaw cycles
Roads	Included in report	Included in report	Estimated but excluded from report
Bridges	Not estimated	Included in report	Included in report
Large Structural Culverts	Not estimated	Included in report	Not estimated
Transit Engineering	Included in report	Not estimated	Not estimated

Figure 4-2 Examples of climate hazard impacts to key components of public transportation infrastructure

Note: For more examples of how these climate hazards impact transportation infrastructure, see WSP 2021.

Source: WSP.

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Transportation Assets	Includes	Relevant Hazard
Roads	Pavement surface, pavement base and sub-base, embankments, retention systems, drainage systems, road finishing.	Extreme rainfall will increase erosion and washouts, while extreme heat will increase the risk of cracks forming through thermal weathering.
Bridges	Foundations, substructure, superstructure, decks, barriers and ancillary structures.	Extreme rainfall will more rapidly erode bridge foundations, embankments, and approaches, increasing deterioration and maintenance costs. Annual FTCs, which normally contribute to concrete cracking, are declining, benefitting these assets.
Large Structural Culverts	Channel protection, culverts, wingwalls and headwalls.	Extreme rainfall will cause erosion, wash outs and scour damages to channel protection and culverts.
Transit Engineering	Steel rails, tracks, rail braces, tie plates, insulated joints, crossings.	Higher temperature increases friction between train wheels and tracks, potentially resulting in the buckling of tracks. Extreme temperatures also reduce the viscosity of asphalt on which rail sits, increasing friction and erosion.

Figure 4-3 Changing climate hazards in Ontario

Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purposes.

Source: FAO.

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Extreme Heat
	Low Emissions Scenario			Medium Emissions Scenario			High Emissions Scenario
Year	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High
1950	1	3	5	1	3	5	1	3	5
1951	1	2	8	1	2	8	1	2	8
1952	1	3	6	1	3	6	1	3	6
1953	1	3	7	1	3	8	1	3	7
1954	1	2	4	1	2	4	1	2	4
1955	1	2	7	1	2	7	1	2	7
1956	0	3	7	0	3	7	0	3	7
1957	0	3	7	0	4	7	0	3	7
1958	1	2	4	1	2	4	1	2	4
1959	1	2	6	1	2	6	1	2	6
1960	1	3	7	1	3	6	1	3	7
1961	1	3	5	1	3	5	1	3	5
1962	0	2	5	0	2	5	0	2	5
1963	0	2	6	0	2	6	0	2	6
1964	0	2	4	0	2	4	0	2	4
1965	1	2	4	1	2	4	1	2	4
1966	0	2	5	0	2	5	0	2	5
1967	1	2	7	1	2	7	1	2	7
1968	1	2	5	1	3	5	1	2	5
1969	0	1	4	0	2	4	0	1	4
1970	1	3	7	1	2	6	1	3	7
1971	1	2	5	1	2	5	1	2	5
1972	1	2	5	1	2	5	1	2	5
1973	0	1	6	0	1	6	0	1	6
1974	1	2	5	1	3	5	1	2	5
1975	1	2	4	1	2	4	1	2	4
1976	1	2	8	1	2	8	1	2	8
1977	1	2	6	1	2	6	1	2	6
1978	1	2	5	1	2	5	1	2	5
1979	1	3	5	1	3	5	1	3	5
1980	1	2	8	1	2	7	1	2	8
1981	1	4	8	1	4	8	1	4	8
1982	1	3	7	1	3	7	1	3	7
1983	1	2	5	1	2	5	1	2	5
1984	1	3	7	1	3	6	1	3	7
1985	1	3	8	1	3	8	1	3	8
1986	1	4	6	1	3	6	1	4	6
1987	1	2	7	1	2	7	1	2	7
1988	1	3	9	1	2	9	1	3	9
1989	2	6	10	2	6	10	2	6	10
1990	1	3	8	1	3	8	1	3	8
1991	1	4	6	2	4	7	1	4	7
1992	0	2	6	0	2	6	0	2	6
1993	1	2	6	1	2	6	1	2	6
1994	2	4	6	2	4	6	2	4	6
1995	1	3	6	1	3	6	1	3	6
1996	1	4	8	1	4	8	1	4	8
1997	2	3	7	2	4	9	2	3	7
1998	2	4	6	2	4	6	1	4	6
1999	2	4	7	2	4	7	2	4	7
2000	2	5	8	2	4	8	2	5	8
2001	2	4	7	2	4	7	2	4	7
2002	2	5	9	2	4	9	2	5	9
2003	2	4	6	2	4	6	2	5	6
2004	3	5	8	2	5	8	2	5	8
2005	2	5	10	2	5	10	2	5	10
2006	2	4	12	2	4	9	2	5	13
2007	1	5	8	2	5	10	1	4	6
2008	2	6	9	3	5	8	1	4	9
2009	3	6	10	1	5	11	3	5	9
2010	2	4	10	3	5	9	3	5	9
2011	3	5	9	3	6	12	2	5	9
2012	2	7	13	3	7	13	2	7	11
2013	2	6	12	2	6	11	2	5	9
2014	2	5	17	3	5	13	3	8	15
2015	2	5	11	3	7	20	3	6	11
2016	2	7	15	2	5	8	3	7	10
2017	4	8	13	3	5	13	2	7	15
2018	2	6	16	2	5	16	3	8	13
2019	3	5	13	2	7	12	4	9	15
2020	2	6	10	3	6	11	2	7	12
2021	4	7	14	2	9	17	2	5	14
2022	2	7	15	3	8	12	3	8	19
2023	3	8	12	3	6	11	3	9	16
2024	3	8	18	3	7	15	4	10	16
2025	3	7	13	3	9	12	3	8	15
2026	4	7	15	3	8	14	2	8	16
2027	4	8	17	4	9	14	2	9	18
2028	3	7	16	3	8	14	4	10	14
2029	4	7	14	4	8	16	3	8	17
2030	4	8	12	2	9	18	6	10	14
2031	4	8	17	4	8	18	4	11	23
2032	4	9	16	2	11	16	4	9	16
2033	3	8	20	4	10	22	4	11	19
2034	5	11	18	3	12	16	4	10	21
2035	5	9	16	7	12	18	4	12	18
2036	2	9	15	3	9	14	6	11	21
2037	4	8	15	2	9	16	5	10	22
2038	5	10	17	6	11	20	7	17	23
2039	4	9	18	3	9	17	5	11	17
2040	3	8	14	4	7	19	4	11	19
2041	4	9	19	6	11	20	8	13	24
2042	5	10	17	5	13	20	4	11	20
2043	4	7	15	4	11	18	6	12	26
2044	3	8	18	3	10	18	5	11	18
2045	4	7	18	4	12	22	6	12	21
2046	4	8	18	5	11	20	5	14	22
2047	3	8	20	4	12	22	10	16	24
2048	4	11	17	7	14	21	7	16	24
2049	2	9	17	4	10	21	8	15	24
2050	4	9	20	4	12	21	8	15	30
2051	3	10	20	5	13	26	7	17	29
2052	5	9	14	6	11	23	8	16	25
2053	5	10	18	5	13	24	8	21	32
2054	2	8	20	6	11	21	10	17	28
2055	3	10	17	3	12	21	6	18	28
2056	4	9	23	5	12	22	8	18	26
2057	3	8	16	3	12	19	7	21	31
2058	4	10	16	4	13	28	12	22	33
2059	4	9	19	6	13	27	10	23	29
2060	3	11	20	7	15	21	7	18	36
2061	4	10	14	6	15	22	12	20	37
2062	4	10	21	8	13	24	8	24	32
2063	3	8	18	8	16	23	12	25	35
2064	5	9	19	6	16	29	13	23	40
2065	3	11	18	7	16	26	17	30	37
2066	4	9	19	5	12	25	10	27	45
2067	3	9	19	7	15	26	17	33	40
2068	5	10	20	7	17	31	14	27	45
2069	2	10	16	8	17	27	14	29	39
2070	3	9	16	8	16	25	12	23	35
2071	3	8	19	9	16	24	14	27	43
2072	3	9	14	6	15	25	14	29	48
2073	4	12	19	9	15	32	12	28	49
2074	5	7	15	7	14	34	12	30	49
2075	2	9	18	4	20	31	16	29	48
2076	4	11	20	7	18	25	19	27	44
2077	3	10	15	4	16	26	15	31	50
2078	3	8	18	7	18	33	19	34	51
2079	4	11	21	5	18	34	18	31	48
2080	4	8	19	6	18	27	12	37	47
2081	4	10	16	6	17	25	23	33	48
2082	4	9	14	9	17	34	20	37	55
2083	5	8	18	7	16	29	16	33	53
2084	3	9	17	8	17	27	17	31	46
2085	3	7	15	9	18	35	22	38	55
2086	5	11	21	9	17	25	17	36	57
2087	3	9	21	7	16	31	13	41	59
2088	5	8	16	6	14	28	22	39	57
2089	3	8	23	8	16	34	18	42	60
2090	4	9	19	8	16	33	20	41	61
2091	3	9	18	10	16	30	21	41	61
2092	3	8	15	6	16	32	23	45	62
2093	5	8	19	9	17	37	25	48	66
2094	3	7	18	8	18	37	22	41	65
2095	4	8	14	7	18	37	24	47	60
2096	4	9	17	7	17	35	19	42	65
2097	3	8	21	9	16	26	17	44	72
2098	5	11	18	7	16	30	21	46	66
2099	4	9	14	7	17	35	20	46	70
2100	4	7	13	5	16	29	24	46	71
Extreme Rainfall
	Low Emissions Scenario			Medium emissions scenario			High emissions scenario
Year	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High
2010	109	111	114	109	111	113	109	112	113
2020	111	113	118	111	115	119	111	116	121
2030	113	115	121	114	118	124	114	121	126
2040	112	118	124	116	120	129	119	126	134
2050	113	118	128	118	124	135	125	134	144
2060	113	119	129	119	126	140	131	142	158
2070	114	118	128	119	128	144	137	150	170
2080	113	118	127	120	129	144	142	158	184
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
	Low Emissions Scenario			Medium Emissions Scenario			High Emissions Scenario
Year	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High
1950	68	80	92	68	80	93	68	80	93
1951	66	80	91	66	80	91	66	80	91
1952	66	78	89	66	78	89	66	78	89
1953	64	78	87	64	78	87	64	78	87
1954	68	81	89	68	81	89	68	82	89
1955	69	76	91	68	76	91	68	76	91
1956	66	78	87	67	76	87	67	76	87
1957	66	80	91	66	80	91	66	80	91
1958	63	76	92	63	77	92	63	77	92
1959	69	82	92	69	81	92	69	81	92
1960	67	80	90	67	80	90	67	80	90
1961	64	77	92	65	77	92	65	77	92
1962	65	78	94	65	79	94	66	79	94
1963	68	82	98	68	82	98	68	82	98
1964	70	82	95	70	81	95	70	81	95
1965	67	76	90	67	76	90	67	75	90
1966	64	81	96	64	81	96	64	81	95
1967	69	81	98	69	81	98	69	81	98
1968	64	77	93	64	77	93	64	77	93
1969	67	78	92	67	78	93	67	78	92
1970	67	80	100	67	80	100	67	80	100
1971	71	79	91	71	79	92	71	79	92
1972	69	82	95	70	83	95	70	83	95
1973	67	79	90	67	79	90	67	79	90
1974	66	77	92	64	76	91	63	76	91
1975	67	77	90	67	77	90	67	77	90
1976	63	77	92	63	77	91	63	77	91
1977	71	84	94	72	84	94	71	84	94
1978	70	77	87	70	78	87	70	78	87
1979	69	82	91	69	81	91	69	81	91
1980	68	75	87	69	75	87	69	76	86
1981	66	78	88	66	78	88	66	78	88
1982	64	76	90	64	77	90	64	76	89
1983	60	77	92	60	77	94	60	76	94
1984	64	80	87	64	79	87	64	80	87
1985	57	73	85	57	73	85	57	72	85
1986	64	77	88	64	77	88	64	77	88
1987	65	77	88	64	77	88	64	76	88
1988	62	75	86	62	75	85	62	75	85
1989	61	77	89	61	77	89	61	77	89
1990	65	76	91	65	76	91	65	76	91
1991	65	75	88	65	76	88	65	75	88
1992	66	75	90	66	74	90	65	75	90
1993	68	77	93	68	78	95	69	78	95
1994	63	77	86	63	78	88	63	77	88
1995	66	76	92	66	76	91	66	75	92
1996	67	76	89	68	76	89	68	76	89
1997	63	78	90	63	77	90	63	77	90
1998	65	74	89	65	74	89	65	74	89
1999	64	79	90	64	79	90	64	79	89
2000	63	77	86	64	77	89	64	77	89
2001	66	75	84	66	75	84	66	75	84
2002	68	79	91	67	79	91	66	79	91
2003	58	75	84	59	75	87	59	75	86
2004	63	74	89	63	74	88	63	74	88
2005	65	79	95	65	78	91	66	78	91
2006	61	71	83	62	76	93	64	75	91
2007	64	79	92	64	78	90	63	75	87
2008	63	76	85	61	77	86	63	77	92
2009	65	78	92	63	78	93	64	77	90
2010	67	75	88	61	71	86	60	72	86
2011	59	72	82	61	79	91	64	75	87
2012	62	76	88	63	75	91	59	74	89
2013	63	75	86	62	78	93	61	75	87
2014	60	73	87	62	73	85	57	68	85
2015	60	73	88	60	73	85	58	71	83
2016	61	71	90	61	72	82	58	73	87
2017	57	70	87	62	74	85	63	73	86
2018	61	77	92	60	71	82	63	75	94
2019	64	75	88	59	71	85	59	74	89
2020	63	72	84	59	73	85	58	70	88
2021	63	74	83	59	73	87	62	70	83
2022	61	72	90	61	75	87	62	71	86
2023	63	75	87	64	73	88	59	70	85
2024	57	71	84	62	75	88	57	72	88
2025	55	70	90	63	74	87	56	70	84
2026	57	72	83	61	75	92	56	72	85
2027	60	75	87	61	70	87	61	69	82
2028	60	75	88	62	72	89	59	69	85
2029	61	75	89	59	69	84	60	74	83
2030	61	75	85	59	70	84	59	73	82
2031	59	73	86	60	69	93	58	67	81
2032	60	74	84	60	72	84	56	70	87
2033	64	76	87	59	72	84	60	70	82
2034	58	70	85	57	69	89	58	69	83
2035	60	73	84	59	72	80	55	75	86
2036	60	72	86	61	74	89	59	71	84
2037	58	72	84	58	72	83	57	71	86
2038	59	74	90	65	77	89	59	72	85
2039	60	72	87	60	71	83	57	71	86
2040	62	73	91	57	69	87	56	65	89
2041	56	71	83	55	72	85	54	69	81
2042	59	68	85	55	69	80	53	65	86
2043	59	70	76	54	70	85	57	69	85
2044	53	72	84	58	71	87	58	70	81
2045	61	74	84	60	74	85	59	66	81
2046	59	72	84	59	71	87	53	66	83
2047	60	72	84	58	69	82	57	67	83
2048	56	72	93	59	69	81	52	67	79
2049	56	71	86	56	73	82	56	68	85
2050	59	72	84	57	71	83	56	68	83
2051	58	76	91	56	66	86	55	66	80
2052	59	70	89	56	70	86	56	66	83
2053	60	73	88	59	70	86	58	73	88
2054	58	76	89	58	70	90	55	67	76
2055	54	71	84	54	73	84	57	68	79
2056	61	75	83	54	72	86	54	70	86
2057	60	73	86	54	69	84	56	66	83
2058	57	72	87	56	69	87	53	65	79
2059	62	72	83	54	69	84	52	67	88
2060	60	74	86	53	69	84	52	68	83
2061	55	71	87	58	73	87	53	67	82
2062	58	69	87	60	72	85	52	65	76
2063	55	72	87	53	69	86	54	66	87
2064	54	72	89	55	74	88	54	66	86
2065	58	73	82	55	71	87	60	69	81
2066	59	74	85	53	70	83	55	71	78
2067	57	69	84	60	72	87	50	63	75
2068	60	75	87	58	73	89	52	70	85
2069	60	71	85	57	69	83	54	65	81
2070	62	75	88	56	67	78	53	68	85
2071	55	72	82	58	70	84	52	66	77
2072	57	72	86	53	68	81	53	66	79
2073	58	73	84	59	69	84	54	66	83
2074	59	68	83	55	64	81	53	66	81
2075	57	70	83	52	68	88	52	64	81
2076	59	70	83	53	69	88	53	67	83
2077	57	74	87	57	68	89	55	63	79
2078	58	71	91	55	68	83	50	63	81
2079	57	71	83	54	70	81	50	66	81
2080	56	74	88	50	66	83	56	66	82
2081	56	69	83	55	64	79	53	65	81
2082	57	72	87	52	69	84	50	66	80
2083	58	70	87	56	70	86	53	68	84
2084	58	70	88	57	74	96	52	65	86
2085	61	70	84	55	65	77	50	63	81
2086	62	77	88	51	68	85	50	64	78
2087	62	72	90	58	71	85	50	59	80
2088	55	71	90	58	70	82	48	66	90
2089	58	75	84	57	67	81	48	64	86
2090	56	75	85	55	69	86	53	69	85
2091	56	73	88	56	69	83	43	64	80
2092	62	75	88	57	72	86	56	67	81
2093	59	73	81	57	71	84	51	63	81
2094	59	73	85	55	67	84	51	65	83
2095	59	72	87	55	67	82	50	64	80
2096	54	68	86	57	70	85	54	65	81
2097	56	72	87	59	68	79	51	66	75
2098	58	72	85	53	67	82	51	63	79
2099	58	73	92	58	71	86	49	64	81
2100	60	76	89	48	67	87	48	63	81

Figure 4-4 Changing climate hazards will raise the cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in the absence of adaptation

Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purposes.

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario		2022-2030	2031-2070	2071-2100	2022-2100
Medium	Stable Climate	$11.0	$13.4	$12.6	$12.9
	No adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs	$1.4	$2.4	$2.1	$2.2
High	Stable Climate	$11.0	$13.4	$12.6	$12.9
	No adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs	$1.6	$3.1	$6.1	$4.1

Figure 4-5 Uncertainty ranges around annual climate-related costs widen over time

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario	Projection	2022-2030	2031-2070	2070-2100
Medium	Low	$0.8	$1.0	$1.4
	Median	$1.4	$2.4	$2.1
	High	$2.1	$3.8	$4.2
High	Low	$0.9	$2.1	$3.0
	Median	$1.6	$3.1	$6.1
	High	$2.3	$5.3	$9.7

Figure 4-6 In the absence of adaptation, climate-related costs accumulate to significant sums by 2100

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario		Projection
Medium	Stable Climate	NA	$1,015
	No adaptation - additional climate-related costs	Low	$89
		Median	$171
		High	$298
High	Stable Climate	NA	$1,015
	No adaptation - additional climate-related costs	Low	$180
		Median	$322
		High	$522

Figure 5-1 Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure assets have long remaining useful lives

Source: FAO.

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Remaining useful life categories	Share of transportation assets by CRV (Per Cent)
Beyond useful life	1
0-20 years	3
20-40 years	24
40-60 years	57
60-80 years	5
80-100 years	10

Figure 5-2 Examples of transportation infrastructure adaptations to climate hazards

Note: For more examples of how transportation infrastructure components can be adapted to climate hazards, see WSP 2021.

Source: WSP.

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Transportation Assets	Adaptation
Roads	Using a higher temperature grade asphalt binder can help reduce the risk of permanent deformation from extreme heat.
Bridges	Deeper foundations will be less vulnerable to extreme rainfall and its anticipated effects of scour and erosion. Added rip rap for foundations in watercourses will increase erosion protection and runoff control.
Large Structural Culverts	Larger pipes and structures and associated excavations are needed for increased capacity in anticipation of the peak flow volume of projected extreme rainfalls. Rocks of larger diameters are required for channel protection.
Transit Engineering	Adequate tie plates and anchors are required to accommodate the dilatation of rail and increase stability. Increase the use of designed materials that are tolerant to higher operating temperatures in moving components and tracks.

Figure 5-3 The reactive adaptation strategy leaves most public transportation assets vulnerable to changing climate hazards throughout the mid-century.

Source: FAO.

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Proportion of adapted public transportation by CRV (per cent)
Year	Reactive adaptation	Proactive adaptation
2022	9	15
2023	9	20
2024	9	37
2025	9	39
2026	9	42
2027	9	45
2028	9	47
2029	9	48
2030	9	53
2031	9	67
2032	9	70
2033	10	71
2034	10	75
2035	10	84
2036	10	87
2037	10	87
2038	11	92
2039	11	94
2040	12	95
2041	13	96
2042	13	97
2043	13	97
2044	13	97
2045	14	99
2046	14	99
2047	14	99
2048	15	99
2049	18	99
2050	19	99
2051	20	100
2052	23	100
2053	25	100
2054	25	100
2055	25	100
2056	25	100
2057	26	100
2058	27	100
2059	27	100
2060	29	100
2061	39	100
2062	40	100
2063	42	100
2064	43	100
2065	46	100
2066	51	100
2067	53	100
2068	61	100
2069	64	100
2070	66	100
2071	71	100
2072	79	100
2073	81	100
2074	83	100
2075	86	100
2076	86	100
2077	86	100
2078	86	100
2079	86	100
2080	86	100
2081	87	100
2082	87	100
2083	87	100
2084	87	100
2085	87	100
2086	87	100
2087	87	100
2088	87	100
2089	87	100
2090	87	100
2091	87	100
2092	87	100
2093	88	100
2094	88	100
2095	88	100
2096	88	100
2097	88	100
2098	88	100
2099	89	100
2100	90	100

Figure 5-4 Adaptation will raise transportation infrastructure costs, but more so in the high emissions scenario

Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose.

Source: FAO

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Emissions Scenario		2022-2030	2031-2070	2071-2100	2022-2100
Medium	Stable Climate	$ 11.0	$ 13.4	$ 12.6	$ 12.9
	Reactive adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs	$ 1.6	$ 2.4	$ 0.8	$ 1.7
High	Stable Climate	$ 11.0	$ 13.4	$ 12.6	$ 12.9
	Reactive adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs	$ 2.1	$ 3.4	$ 2.5	$ 2.9

Figure 5-5 Climate-related costs are subject to climate and engineering uncertainty

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario	Projection	2022-2030	2031-2070	2070-2100
Medium	Low	$ 0.9	$ 1.0	$ 0.7
	Median	$ 1.6	$ 2.4	$ 0.8
	High	$ 2.6	$ 4.0	$ 1.7
High	Low	$ 1.1	$ 2.2	$ 1.0
	Median	$ 2.1	$ 3.4	$ 2.5
	High	$ 3.2	$ 6.2	$ 3.3

Figure 5-6 Cumulative climate-related costs in the reactive adaptation strategy to 2100

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario		Projection
Medium	Stable Climate	NA	$ 1,015
	Reactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs	Low	$ 67
		Median	$ 135
		High	$ 235
High	Stable Climate	NA	$ 1,015
	Reactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs	Low	$ 129
		Median	$ 229
		High	$ 374

Figure 5-7 Adaptation will raise transportation infrastructure costs, but more so in the high emissions scenario

Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose.

Source: FAO

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Emissions Scenario		2022-2030	2031-2070	2071-2100	2022-2100
Medium	Stable Climate	$ 11.0	$ 13.4	$ 12.6	$ 12.9
	Proactive adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs	$ 2.9	$ 1.4	$ 1.0	$ 1.4
High	Stable Climate	$ 11.0	$ 13.4	$ 12.6	$ 12.9
	Proactive adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs	$ 5.2	$ 2.8	$ 2.0	$ 2.7

Figure 5-8 Climate-related costs are subject to climate and engineering uncertainty

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario	Projection	2022-2030	2031-2070	2070-2100
Medium	Low	$ 1.3	$ 0.7	$ 0.2
	Median	$ 2.9	$ 1.4	$ 1.0
	High	$ 5.1	$ 2.7	$ 1.9
High	Low	$ 2.6	$ 1.5	$ 0.9
	Median	$ 5.2	$ 2.8	$ 2.0
	High	$ 9.0	$ 4.9	$ 3.6

Figure 5-9 Cumulative climate-related costs in the proactive adaptation strategy to 2100

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario		Projection
Medium	Stable Climate	NA	$ 1,015
	Proactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs	Low	$ 46
		Median	$ 110
		High	$ 210
High	Stable Climate	NA	$ 1,015
	Proactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs	Low	$ 111
		Median	$ 217
		High	$ 386

Figure 6-1 Adapting Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure will cost Provincial and municipal governments less than not adapting in a changing climate

Note: The costs in this chart are based on the median (or 50th percentile) projection under each emissions scenario and are in addition to the baseline costs over the same period. Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose.

Source: FAO.

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	Medium emissions scenario	High emissions scenario
No adaptation - additional climate-related costs	$171	$322
Reactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs	$135	$229
Proactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs	$110	$217

Figure 6-2 The three asset management strategies have different cost profiles

Note: The costs in this chart are based on the median (or 50th percentile) projection under each emissions scenario and are in addition to the baseline costs over the same period. Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose.

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario	Strategy	2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
High Emissions Scenario	Reactive adaptation	$5	$19	$43	$61	$96	$154	$172	$194	$229
	Proactive adaptation	$10	$47	$99	$125	$131	$157	$177	$203	$217
	No adaptation	$1	$14	$38	$59	$88	$138	$171	$244	$322
Medium Emissions Scenario	Reactive adaptation	$3	$14	$35	$46	$49	$110	$99	$117	$135
	Proactive adaptation	$5	$26	$56	$67	$68	$80	$88	$103	$110
	No adaptation	$1	$12	$33	$47	$50	$107	$107	$140	$171

Figure C-1Roads – Cumulative impact of extreme rainfall and extreme heat

Source: FAO.

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In Absence of Adaptation
Useful Service Life
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	-2.4	-3.2	-3.8	-4.2	-4.6	-5.0	-5.2	-5.4	-5.7
	Median	-4.8	-6.2	-7.7	-9.2	-10.2	-10.8	-11.2	-11.7	-12.1
	High	-7.9	-10.2	-13.1	-15.3	-18.2	-19.9	-19.0	-18.2	-17.5
High	Low	-2.5	-3.9	-5.5	-7.5	-9.3	-11.4	-13.2	-15.2	-17.4
	Median	-5.6	-7.5	-9.9	-13.0	-16.2	-19.9	-23.3	-27.0	-31.1
	High	-8.0	-10.8	-14.9	-19.6	-25.7	-31.2	-36.9	-43.0	-49.7
Operations & Maintenance
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
	Median	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6
	High	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.8	0.8
High	Low	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.8	1.0
	Median	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.5
	High	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.2	1.4	1.7	2.0	2.3
Adaptation Costs
Retrofit Costs
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	2.0	2.7	3.2	3.4	3.8	4.1	4.3	4.5	4.7
	Median	4.1	5.2	6.5	7.7	8.6	9.0	9.4	9.8	10.2
	High	7.3	9.5	12.1	14.2	16.8	18.3	17.7	17.0	16.4
High	Low	2.1	3.2	4.5	6.1	7.6	9.4	10.9	12.5	14.2
	Median	4.7	6.3	8.3	10.9	13.6	16.6	19.5	22.5	25.9
	High	7.5	10.0	13.8	18.1	23.7	28.8	34.0	39.7	45.8
Renewal Costs
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	1.8	2.4	2.9	3.1	3.5	3.7	3.9	4.1	4.3
	Median	3.8	4.8	6.0	7.1	7.9	8.3	8.7	9.0	9.4
	High	6.8	8.8	11.2	13.1	15.5	16.9	16.3	15.7	15.1
High	Low	1.9	2.9	4.1	5.6	6.9	8.5	9.8	11.3	12.9
	Median	4.4	5.8	7.6	10.0	12.5	15.3	17.9	20.8	23.8
	High	6.9	9.2	12.7	16.7	21.9	26.6	31.4	36.6	42.3

Figure C-2Bridges – Cumulative impact of extreme rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles

Source: FAO.

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In Absence of Adaptation
Useful Service Life
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	3.3	4.2	4.5	5.1	5.4	6.5	7.7	8.9	9.9
	Median	-0.7	-0.7	-0.8	-0.9	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.6	-0.6
	High	-3.0	-3.7	-4.7	-5.6	-6.5	-7.0	-6.9	-6.7	-6.5
High	Low	3.7	4.9	6.3	7.5	8.5	10.9	12.9	14.6	16.0
	Median	-0.7	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0	-1.1	-1.4	-1.7	-2.1	-2.6
	High	-3.0	-3.9	-5.4	-6.9	-9.0	-10.8	-12.8	-14.9	-17.2
Operations & Maintenance
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4
	Median	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
	High	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
High	Low	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.9
	Median	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.3
	High	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.8
Adaptation Costs
Retrofit Costs
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.5
	Median	1.3	1.6	2.0	2.3	2.6	2.7	2.9	3.0	3.1
	High	2.4	3.0	3.8	4.5	5.3	5.8	5.6	5.5	5.4
High	Low	0.6	0.9	1.2	1.7	2.1	2.5	2.9	3.2	3.6
	Median	1.5	1.9	2.5	3.2	4.0	4.9	5.7	6.6	7.5
	High	2.4	3.2	4.4	5.7	7.5	9.0	10.6	12.4	14.3
Renewal Costs
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3
	Median	1.1	1.4	1.8	2.1	2.3	2.4	2.6	2.7	2.8
	High	3.8	4.8	6.0	7.1	8.4	9.1	8.9	8.7	8.5
High	Low	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7
	Median	1.3	1.7	2.2	2.9	3.6	4.4	5.1	5.9	6.7
	High	3.9	5.1	7.0	9.0	11.8	14.2	16.9	19.7	22.7

Figure C-3Large structural culverts – Impact of extreme rainfall

Source: FAO.

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In Absence of Adaptation
Useful Service Life
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	-2.7	-3.7	-4.5	-4.8	-5.1	-5.4	-5.8	-6.2	-6.6
	Median	-5.3	-6.7	-8.4	-9.8	-10.7	-11.3	-11.9	-12.5	-13.1
	High	-9.8	-12.6	-15.7	-18.6	-21.8	-23.8	-23.2	-22.7	-22.2
High	Low	-2.9	-4.1	-5.6	-7.6	-9.5	-11.4	-13.0	-14.6	-16.3
	Median	-6.2	-8.0	-10.3	-13.3	-16.6	-20.4	-23.9	-27.5	-31.3
	High	-10.0	-13.2	-18.1	-23.5	-30.8	-37.0	-43.9	-51.2	-59.0
Operations & Maintenance
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4
	Median	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.0
	High	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.3
High	Low	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.9
	Median	0.5	0.6	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.9	2.2	2.5
	High	0.6	0.8	1.1	1.4	1.9	2.2	2.7	3.1	3.6
Adaptation Costs
Retrofit Costs
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	5.8	7.7	9.4	10.2	10.8	11.5	12.3	13.1	13.9
	Median	10.0	12.6	15.7	18.3	20.2	21.3	22.4	23.5	24.6
	High	16.7	21.3	26.7	31.6	37.0	40.3	39.4	38.5	37.6
High	Low	6.1	8.7	11.8	16.1	20.1	24.0	27.4	30.8	34.4
	Median	11.6	15.0	19.4	25.0	31.2	38.3	44.9	51.7	58.9
	High	17.0	22.4	30.8	39.9	52.2	62.9	74.5	86.9	100.2
Renewal Costs
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	2.3	3.1	3.7	4.0	4.3	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.5
	Median	4.3	5.4	6.7	7.8	8.6	9.1	9.5	10.0	10.5
	High	7.7	9.9	12.4	14.7	17.2	18.7	18.3	17.9	17.5
High	Low	2.4	3.4	4.7	6.4	7.9	9.5	10.8	12.2	13.6
	Median	4.9	6.4	8.3	10.6	13.3	16.3	19.1	22.0	25.1
	High	7.9	10.4	14.3	18.5	24.2	29.2	34.6	40.4	46.5

Figure C-4Transit engineering – Impact of extreme rainfall

Source: FAO.

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In Absence of Adaptation
In Absence of Adaptation
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	-0.4	-0.5	-0.6	-0.7	-0.8	-0.9	-0.9	-0.9	-0.9
	Median	-1.1	-1.4	-1.8	-2.2	-2.5	-2.6	-2.7	-2.7	-2.8
	High	-1.6	-2.2	-3.0	-3.4	-4.1	-4.5	-4.1	-3.8	-3.5
High	Low	-0.4	-0.8	-1.1	-1.5	-1.8	-2.4	-2.8	-3.3	-3.9
	Median	-1.3	-1.8	-2.4	-3.3	-4.1	-5.0	-5.8	-6.8	-7.9
	High	-1.7	-2.3	-3.2	-4.4	-5.8	-7.2	-8.4	-9.8	-11.4
Operations & Maintenance
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
	Median	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4
	High	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.6
High	Low	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5
	Median	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.9	1.0	1.2
	High	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.2	1.4	1.6	1.8
Adaptation Costs
Retrofit Costs
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	1.2	1.7	1.9	2.1	2.6	2.8	2.8	2.9	2.9
	Median	2.4	3.3	4.1	4.9	5.6	5.9	6.1	6.2	6.4
	High	3.1	4.1	5.6	6.3	7.7	8.5	7.8	7.2	6.6
High	Low	1.3	2.4	3.5	4.8	5.9	7.6	9.0	10.7	12.6
	Median	2.9	4.0	5.4	7.4	9.2	11.3	13.2	15.4	18.0
	High	3.2	4.4	6.1	8.3	10.9	13.5	15.8	18.4	21.4
Renewal Costs
Emissions Scenario		2020s	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s	2090s	2100s
Medium	Low	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
	Median	0.8	1.1	1.4	1.7	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.2	2.2
	High	1.4	1.9	2.5	2.8	3.5	3.8	3.5	3.2	3.0
High	Low	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.6	1.9	2.2	2.6
	Median	1.0	1.4	1.9	2.6	3.2	3.9	4.6	5.4	6.2
	High	1.4	2.0	2.7	3.7	4.9	6.1	7.1	8.3	9.6

Figure D-1 More intense rainfall and extreme heat will contribute to the decline in USL of public roads

Source: FAO.

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	Medium Emissions Scenario			High Emissions Scenario
	Extreme rainfall	Extreme heat	Cumulative	Extreme rainfall	Extreme heat	Cumulative
2020s	-3.0	-1.8	-4.8	-3.5	-2.1	-5.6
2030s	-3.8	-2.4	-6.2	-4.6	-2.9	-7.5
2040s	-4.8	-3.0	-7.7	-5.9	-4.0	-9.9
2050s	-5.6	-3.6	-9.2	-7.6	-5.4	-13.0
2060s	-6.1	-4.1	-10.2	-9.5	-6.8	-16.2
2070s	-6.5	-4.3	-10.8	-11.6	-8.3	-19.9
2080s	-6.8	-4.4	-11.2	-13.6	-9.7	-23.3
2090s	-7.1	-4.6	-11.7	-15.7	-11.3	-27.0
2100s	-7.5	-4.7	-12.1	-17.9	-13.2	-31.1

Figure D-2 More intense rainfall and extreme heat will contribute to the increase in O&M of public roads

Source: FAO.

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	Medium Emissions Scenario			High Emissions Scenario
	Extreme rainfall	Extreme heat	Cumulative	Extreme rainfall	Extreme heat	Cumulative
2020s	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.3
2030s	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.4
2040s	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.5
2050s	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.6
2060s	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.8
2070s	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.9
2080s	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.5	1.1
2090s	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.5	1.3
2100s	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.6	1.5

Figure D-3 More intense rainfall will contribute the most to the decline in USL of public bridges, significantly offset by the decline in freeze-thaw cycles

Source: FAO.

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	Medium Emissions Scenario			High Emissions Scenario
	Extreme rainfall	Extreme heat	Cumulative	Extreme rainfall	Extreme heat	Cumulative
2020s	-1.5	0.8	-0.7	-1.7	1.0	-0.7
2030s	-1.9	1.2	-0.7	-2.2	1.5	-0.7
2040s	-2.3	1.6	-0.8	-2.9	2.0	-0.9
2050s	-2.7	1.8	-0.9	-3.7	2.7	-1.0
2060s	-3.0	2.1	-0.9	-4.6	3.5	-1.1
2070s	-3.2	2.4	-0.8	-5.7	4.3	-1.4
2080s	-3.3	2.6	-0.7	-6.7	5.0	-1.7
2090s	-3.5	2.9	-0.6	-7.7	5.6	-2.1
2100s	-3.7	3.1	-0.6	-8.8	6.2	-2.6

Figure E-1The present value cost of each asset management strategy under different discount rates

Source: FAO.

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Interest Rate	Medium Emissions Scenario			High Emissions Scenario
	No adaptation	Reactive adaptation	Proactive adaptation	No adaptation	Reactive adaptation	Proactive adaptation
0.0%	$171	$135	$110	$322	$229	$217
0.5%	$139	$113	$96	$253	$189	$188
1.0%	$115	$97	$85	$202	$158	$166
1.5%	$96	$83	$76	$164	$133	$148
2.0%	$82	$72	$69	$134	$114	$133
2.5%	$70	$64	$63	$112	$99	$121
3.0%	$61	$56	$58	$94	$86	$111
3.5%	$53	$50	$54	$80	$76	$103
4.0%	$47	$45	$51	$69	$67	$96
4.5%	$42	$41	$48	$60	$60	$90
5.0%	$38	$38	$45	$53	$54	$85
5.5%	$34	$34	$43	$47	$50	$81
6.0%	$31	$32	$41	$42	$45	$77
6.5%	$29	$30	$39	$38	$42	$73
7.0%	$27	$28	$38	$35	$39	$70

Figure F-1 The cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure will increase by $116 billion in the low emissions scenario in the absence of adaptation

Source: WSP and FAO.

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Emissions Scenario		2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Low	Low	$0	$6	$14	$9	$16	$25	$31	$39	$45
	Median	$1	$12	$30	$40	$38	$79	$74	$91	$116
	High	$1	$17	$44	$63	$68	$135	$133	$165	$193
Medium	Low	$0	$7	$18	$21	$23	$48	$49	$69	$89
	Median	$1	$12	$33	$47	$50	$107	$107	$140	$171
	High	$1	$19	$49	$80	$119	$173	$191	$253	$298
High	Low	$0	$8	$20	$35	$36	$91	$86	$135	$180
	Median	$1	$14	$38	$59	$88	$138	$171	$244	$322
	High	$1	$21	$51	$90	$143	$232	$268	$390	$522

Figure F-2A reactive adaptation strategy, where assets are adapted at the end of their service life to withstand the impacts of climate hazards, will add $93 billion in infrastructure costs over the century in the low emissions scenario

Source: WSP and FAO.

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Emissions Scenario		2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Low	Low	$1	$7	$14	$9	$14	$24	$31	$36	$38
	Median	$2	$12	$30	$37	$36	$77	$70	$76	$93
	High	$3	$19	$46	$61	$67	$140	$124	$145	$169
Medium	Low	$1	$8	$19	$18	$22	$46	$47	$50	$67
	Median	$3	$14	$35	$46	$49	$110	$99	$117	$135
	High	$5	$23	$53	$79	$125	$185	$185	$208	$235
High	Low	$3	$10	$22	$35	$38	$98	$84	$101	$129
	Median	$5	$19	$43	$61	$96	$154	$172	$194	$229
	High	$9	$29	$61	$98	$163	$276	$263	$314	$374

Figure F-3A proactive adaptation strategy, where assets are adapted at the earliest opportunity to withstand the impacts of climate hazards, will add $64 billion in infrastructure costs over the century in the low emissions scenario

Source: WSP and FAO.

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Emissions Scenario		2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Low	Low	$1	$7	$10	$15	$18	$23	$21	$25	$27
	Median	$3	$17	$36	$43	$40	$47	$51	$60	$64
	High	$6	$31	$66	$83	$81	$97	$107	$122	$131
Medium	Low	$2	$11	$20	$27	$32	$39	$40	$42	$46
	Median	$5	$26	$56	$67	$68	$80	$88	$103	$110
	High	$9	$46	$98	$123	$126	$153	$172	$193	$210
High	Low	$5	$24	$46	$60	$73	$83	$94	$100	$111
	Median	$10	$47	$99	$125	$131	$157	$177	$203	$217
	High	$17	$81	$167	$212	$228	$278	$319	$355	$386

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Footnotes