Budget Outlook Update

Publish date: February 8, 2022 ISBN 978-1-4868-5877-4
This report provides the FAO’s projection of the government’s fiscal position over the 2021-22 to 2023-24 period. The report compares the FAO’s outlook to the government’s plan presented in the 2021 Fall Economic Statement for budget balance, key debt measures, revenues and program spending.
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About this Document

Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

This report was prepared by Zohra Jamasi, Sabrina Afroz, Nicolas Rhodes, Jay Park, Matthew Stephenson and Edward Crummey under the direction of Paul Lewis. Luan Ngo and Jeffrey Novak contributed to this report.

In keeping with the FAO’s mandate to provide the Legislative Assembly of Ontario with independent economic and financial analysis, this report makes no policy recommendations.

© Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2022

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Budget Outlook Update, Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2022.
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Summary

This Budget Outlook Update provides the FAO’s projection of the Ontario government’s fiscal position over the 2021-22 to 2023-24 period. The report compares the FAO’s outlook to the government’s plan presented in the 2021 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (or Fall Economic Statement) for the budget balance, key debt measures, revenues and program spending. The FAO’s revenue and program spending projections are based on current and announced government policies. The Appendix presents a comparison of the FAO’s economic outlook with the Fall Economic Statement (FES).

The FAO will provide a detailed assessment of Ontario’s economic and fiscal prospects when it releases the Long-Term Budget Outlook in early March 2022.

Budget deficit expected to be smaller compared to the government plan

The FAO projects smaller deficits than the FES outlook largely due to stronger revenue growth. For 2021-22, the FAO expects a $16.0 billion budget deficit, lower than the government outlook for a $20.5 billion deficit.[1] By 2023-24, the FAO projects the deficit will decline to $2.8 billion, compared to the FES outlook of $11.4 billion.

However, if the government makes future announcements such as new tax cuts, spending initiatives or a combination of both, the FAO’s deficit projection would deteriorate.

Lower net debt-to-GDP ratio

Smaller deficits combined with robust economic growth over the projection lower the net debt-to-GDP ratio modestly below pre-pandemic levels. By 2023-24, the FAO projects Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 39.0 per cent, lower than the government’s outlook of 43.6 per cent. Interest on debt as a share of revenue is projected to decline to 6.9 per cent, below its pre-pandemic level of 8.0 per cent.

Revenues projected to be higher than the government outlook

The FES projects slower revenue growth over the 2021-22 to 2023-24 period compared to the FAO, reflecting weaker expected economic growth, extra prudence, and potential unannounced tax cuts which are not included in the FAO’s projection. By 2023-24, the FAO expects total revenues to be $7.6 billion higher than the government’s projection.

Government spending plan includes significant unallocated funds, while most sectors face funding shortfalls

Based on a review of the government’s existing programs and announced new program commitments to date, the FAO projects a $6.3 billion combined funding shortfall by 2023-24. By sector, shortfalls are expected in health ($4.5 billion), education ($0.4 billion), postsecondary education ($0.2 billion), children’s and social services ($0.8 billion) and justice ($0.4 billion). At the same time, the government’s spending plan includes significant unallocated funds that the Province will need to decide how to use. For example, the unallocated funds could be used to address the funding shortfall, create new programs, enhance existing programs, and / or lower the budget deficit.[2]

Budget and Debt Outlook

The FAO expects lower budget deficits compared to the government’s projection

Figure 1 FAO’s deficit projection $8.6 billion lower than government’s by 2023-24

The Budget Balance is presented without the reserve.

Source: 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and FAO.

Accessible version
Budget Balance ($ Billions)
Year Historical FAO 2022 Fiscal Outlook 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
2017-18 -3.7
2018-19 -7.4
2019-20 -8.7
2020-21 -16.4
2021-22 -16.0 -20.5
2022-23 -7.2 -18.1
2023-24 -2.8 -11.4

Lower deficits will improve Ontario’s fiscal sustainability indicators

Figure 2 FAO projects an improvement in Ontario’s fiscal sustainability indicators

Source: 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and FAO.

Accessible version
Net Debt-to-GDP Ratio (Per Cent) Interest on Debt to Revenue (Per Cent)
Year Historical FAO 2022 Fiscal Outlook 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Historical FAO 2022 Fiscal Outlook 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
2013-14 39.7 9.1
2014-15 40.5 8.9
2015-16 40.3 8.5
2016-17 39.7 8.3
2017-18 39.3 7.9
2018-19 39.4 8.1
2019-20 39.6 8.0
2020-21 43.9 7.4
2021-22 41.0 43.4 7.3 7.7
2022-23 39.8 43.5 7.1 7.7
2023-24 39.0 43.6 6.9 7.8

Revenue Outlook

The FAO projects higher revenues compared to the government’s Fall Economic Statement

Figure 3 The FAO’s revenue projection is $7.6 billion higher than the government’s by 2023-24

Source: 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and FAO.

Accessible version
Average Annual Growth in Total Revenue (Per Cent)
Period Historical FAO 2022 Fiscal Outlook 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
Historical (2012-23 to 2020-21) 3.9
Projection (2021-22 to 2023-24) 4.0 2.6

Fall Economic Statement’s lower revenue outlook could reflect unannounced tax cuts

Figure 4 Unannounced tax cuts could explain the difference between the FAO and the Fall Economic Statement’s tax revenue projections

Source: 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and FAO.

Accessible version
2023-24 Tax Revenue Difference ($ Billions)
Personal Income Tax Revenue Corporations Tax Revenue
FES Weaker Economic Activity and Fiscal Prudence -1.1 -2.7
Potential Unannounced Tax Cuts -1.7 -0.8

Program Spending Outlook

FAO’s program spending projection lower than the government’s in 2021-22 and 2022-23

Figure 5 FAO’s program spending projection is lower than the government’s in 2021-22 and 2022-23

Source: FAO analysis of the 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and information provided by the Ministry of Finance.

Accessible version
Total Program Spending ($ Billions)
Year Historical FAO 2022 Fiscal Outlook 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
2020-21 169.0
2021-22 174.3 176.1
2022-23 171.5 176.4
2023-24 175.6 175.6

Government spending plan includes significant unallocated funds, while most sectors face funding shortfalls

Table 1 FAO’s program spending projection by sector is significantly different than the government’s Note: Negative values indicate that the Province’s spending plan is below the FAO’s projection, while positive values indicate that the Province’s spending plan is above the FAO’s projection. The FAO’s program spending projection is based on the FAO’s projected cost of current government programs and policies, the impact on the health sector of the Omicron wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and new program announcements made since the release of the 2021 Fall Economic Statement up to January 20, 2022. Importantly, the FAO’s program spending forecast excludes unallocated funds included in the government’s program spending outlook in the FES, as unallocated funds represent unannounced or upcoming program decisions. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) expense is included in the education sector.Source: FAO analysis of the 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and information provided by the Ministry of Finance.
Sector Spending Gap, Province vs. FAO
2021-22 ($ millions) 2022-23 ($ millions) 2023-24 ($ millions)
Health -1,448 -3,098 -4,491
Education -243 112 -429
Postsecondary Education -12 -112 -221
Children’s and Social Services 378 -279 -816
Justice -46 -171 -379
Sum of shortfalls in 5 sectors -1,372 -3,547 -6,336
Other Programs 3,205 8,450 6,375
Total 1,833 4,903 39

Appendix

Table A-1 FAO Outlook for Key Revenue Drivers a = Actual f = Forecast* Ministry of Finance forecast released in the 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review was based on information available up to October 1, 2021.Source: Ontario Economic Accounts, 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and FAO.
(Per Cent Growth) 2019a 2020a 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
Nominal GDP
FAO – Fiscal Outlook Update 3.7 -2.8 11.8 6.9 4.5 3.7
2021 Ontario FES* 3.7 -2.8 9.0 6.6 4.6 4.1
Labour Income
FAO – Fiscal Outlook Update 4.4 -0.3 9.6 5.0 4.1 3.7
2021 Ontario FES 4.4 -0.3 6.3 4.7 4.7 4.1
Corporate Profits
FAO – Fiscal Outlook Update -1.3 10.2 23.8 8.5 5.0 3.7
2021 Ontario FES -1.3 10.2 30.6 9.1 1.5 3.3
Household Consumption
FAO – Fiscal Outlook Update 3.5 -7.4 7.3 8.5 4.7 3.7
2021 Ontario FES 3.5 -7.4 6.2 7.6 4.8 4.3
Table A-2 FAO Outlook for Real GDP and Select Economic Indicators a = Actual f = Forecast* Real GDP in 2021 is forecast.** Ministry of Finance forecast released in the 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review was based on information available up to October 1, 2021.Source: Statistics Canada, Ontario Economic Accounts, 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, and FAO.
(Per Cent Growth) 2019a 2020a 2021a 2022f 2023f 2024f
Real GDP*
FAO – Fiscal Outlook Update 2.0 -5.1 4.5 4.2 2.5 1.9
2021 Ontario FES** 2.0 -5.1 4.3 4.5 2.6 2.0
Employment
FAO – Fiscal Outlook Update 2.8 -4.8 4.9 4.3 1.1 0.9
2021 Ontario FES 2.8 -4.8 4.3 3.3 2.0 1.5
Unemployment Rate (Per Cent)
FAO – Fiscal Outlook Update 5.6 9.6 8.0 6.1 6.0 6.0
2021 Ontario FES 5.6 9.6 8.2 6.6 6.2 6.1
CPI Inflation (Per Cent)
FAO – Fiscal Outlook Update 1.9 0.7 3.5 3.8 2.2 1.9
2021 Ontario FES 1.9 0.7 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.9
Three-month Treasury Bill Rate (Per Cent)
FAO – Fiscal Outlook Update 1.7 0.4 0.1 1.0 1.7 2.1
2021 Ontario FES 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3
10-year Government Bond Rate (Per Cent)
FAO – Fiscal Outlook Update 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.9
2021 Ontario FES 1.6 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.5
Table A-3 FAO Fiscal Outlook a = Actual f = Forecast* Includes Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.** Budget Balance is presented without reserve.Numbers may not add due to rounding. Source: Ontario Public Accounts, 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, and FAO.
($ Billions) 2019-20a 2020-21a 2021-22f 2022-23f 2023-24f
Revenue
Personal Income Tax 37.7 40.3 42.4 44.6 46.8
Sales Tax 28.6 26.6 31.0 33.5 35.1
Corporations Tax 15.4 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.0
All Other Taxes 26.5 26.2 28.4 28.5 29.2
Total Taxation Revenue 108.3 110.9 120.8 126.8 132.1
Transfers from Government of Canada 25.4 33.9 28.7 27.1 28.7
Income from Government Business Enterprise 5.9 5.0 4.7 5.5 6.6
Other Non-Tax Revenue 16.5 15.1 16.5 17.5 18.2
Total Revenue 156.1 164.9 170.7 176.9 185.6
Expense
Health Sector 63.7 69.5 76.5 74.9 77.7
Health (Base) 63.7 62.1 69.3 73.8 77.3
Temporary COVID-19 Funds 0.0 7.4 7.2 1.2 0.4
Education Sector 31.7 32.9 33.4 33.2 33.7
Education* (Base) 31.4 29.4 32.1 32.9 33.7
Temporary COVID-19 Funds 0.4 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
Children’s and Social Services Sector 17.1 17.4 17.5 18.2 18.9
Children’s and Social Services (Base) 17.1 16.9 17.1 18.2 18.9
Temporary COVID-19 Funds 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Postsecondary Education Sector 10.5 9.8 10.7 11.1 11.4
Postsecondary Education (Base) 10.5 9.6 10.7 11.1 11.4
Temporary COVID-19 Funds 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Justice Sector 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2
Justice (Base) 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2
Temporary COVID-19 Funds 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Programs 24.5 34.6 31.3 29.0 28.8
Other (Base) 24.5 23.8 27.4 28.4 28.8
Temporary COVID-19 Funds 0.0 10.8 3.8 0.6 0.0
Total Program Expense 152.3 169.0 174.3 171.5 175.6
Total Program Expense (Base) 151.9 146.7 161.6 169.4 175.2
Total Temporary COVID-19 Funds 0.4 22.3 12.7 2.1 0.4
Interest on Debt 12.5 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8
Total Expense 164.8 181.3 186.7 184.1 188.4
Budget Balance** -8.7 -16.4 -16.0 -7.2 -2.8
Table A-4 FAO Debt Outlook a = Actual f = Forecast* Budget Balance is presented without reserve.Numbers may not add due to rounding.Source: Ontario Public Accounts, 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, and FAO.
($ Billions) 2019–20a 2020–21a 2021–22f 2022–23f 2023–24f
Budget Balance* -8.7 -16.4 -16.0 -7.2 -2.8
Accumulated Deficit 225.8 239.3 255.3 262.4 265.2
Net Debt 353.3 373.6 396.9 412.6 422.9
Net Debt-to-GDP (Per Cent) 39.6 43.9 41.0 39.8 39.0

Footnotes

[1] The government’s budget balance in this report is shown before the reserve.

[2] The FAO excludes unallocated funds from its program spending projection until the government decides how to use these funds.

[3] See page 7 of the 2021 Ontario Budget.

[4] See the FAO’s Federal and Provincial COVID-19 Response Measures: 2021 Update.

[5] The remaining $1.3 billion is attributed to differences in sales tax and other tax revenue projections, largely explained by the FAO’s stronger economic projection.

[6] The FAO’s program spending forecast is based on the FAO’s projected cost of current government programs and policies, the impact on the health sector of the Omicron wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and new program announcements made since the release of the FES up to January 20, 2022. Importantly, the FAO’s program spending forecast excludes unallocated funds included in the government’s program spending outlook in the FES, as unallocated funds represent unannounced or upcoming program decisions.

[7] In contrast, the FAO projects an average annual program spending growth rate of 3.6 per cent from 2019-20 to 2023-24 (which excludes the temporary impact of COVID-19-related spending). The FAO’s program spending forecast includes an estimated $0.4 billion of COVID-19-related spending in both 2019-20 and 2023-24.

[8] The FAO’s three-year spending projection includes an estimated $12.7 billion in COVID-19-related spending in 2021-22, $2.1 billion in 2022-23 and $0.4 billion in 2023-24. The government’s spending plan in the FES includes COVID-19-related spending of $10.7 billion in 2021-22, $3.4 billion in 2022-23 and none in 2023-24. The FAO’s COVID-19-related spending outlook reflects the estimated impact of the Omicron wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and new COVID-19-related program announcements made since the release of the FES up to January 20, 2022. For information on COVID-19-related spending prior to the Omicron wave, see the FAO’s Federal and Provincial COVID-19 Response Measures: 2021 Update.

[9] For example, after accounting for the projected impact of the Omicron wave on hospitalizations, the FAO estimates that patients with COVID-19 will occupy a total of 431,000 hospital days in 2021-22, a 98.6 per cent increase compared to the 217,000 hospitals days occupied by COVID-19 patients in 2020-21.

[10] The ‘other programs’ sector includes the following ministries: Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs; Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade; Energy, Northern Development and Mines; Environment, Conservation and Parks; Finance; Francophone Affairs; Government and Consumer Services; Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries; Indigenous Affairs; Infrastructure; Labour, Training and Skills Development; Municipal Affairs and Housing; Natural Resources and Forestry; Seniors and Accessibility; Transportation; and Treasury Board Secretariat. The ‘other programs’ sector also includes the Executive Offices (Cabinet Office, Office of the Lieutenant Governor, and Office of the Premier) and the Legislative Offices. The FAO includes Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan expense in the education sector.