CIPI: Transportation – Assessing the financial impacts of extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles on transportation infrastructure in Ontario

For more information click here for the Costing Climate Change to Public Infrastructure portal.

Glossary of Terms

List of Abbreviations

Term Definition
CIPI Costing Climate Change Impacts to Public Infrastructure (project)
CRV Current Replacement Value
IDF Intensity-Duration-Frequency (Curve)
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
O&M Operation and Maintenance
RCP Representative Concentration Pathway
SME Subject-Matter Expert
USL Useful Service Life
WSP WSP Global Inc.

Definitions

Current Replacement Value: The current cost of rebuilding an infrastructure asset with the equivalent capacity, functionality and performance.

Operations and Maintenance (O&M): The routine activities performed on an asset that maximize service life and minimize service disruptions.

Rehabilitation: Repairing part or most of an asset to extend its service life, without adding to its capacity, functionality or performance.

Renewal: Replacement of an existing asset, resulting in a new or as-new asset with an equivalent capacity, functionality and performance as the original asset. Renewal is different from rehabilitation, as renewal rebuilds the entire asset.

State of Good Repair: A performance standard which helps to maximize the benefits of public infrastructure in a cost-effective manner over time, and ensures that infrastructure operates in a condition that is considered acceptable from an engineering perspective.

Stable Climate: A stable climate scenario assumes that climate indicators for extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles remain unchanged from their 1975-2005 average levels over the projection to 2100.

Rest of the Century: Refers to the 79 years from 2022 to 2100.

Baseline Cost: The operations and maintenance, rehabilitation, and renewal expense that would have been required to maintain public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair in a stable climate.

Acute Hazard: Severeclimate hazards that occur rarely (such as the 100-year storm event).

Chronic Hazard: Climate hazards that occur often.

Retrofit: An adaptation made during the asset’s service life.

Adaptation: Adaptation is modelled as an alteration of an asset’s physical components to prevent more rapid deterioration and increased O&M expenses caused by changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and/or freeze-thaw cycles. Adaptation can be done through retrofit while an asset is still in service or can be done at the time of renewal.

No Adaptation Strategy / Damage Costs: An asset management strategy where public infrastructure assets are not adapted to changing climate hazards.

Reactive Adaptation Strategy: An asset management strategy where publicinfrastructure assets are only adapted at the time of renewal to withstand changing climate conditions.

Proactive Adaptation Strategy: An asset management strategywhere public infrastructure assets are adapted at the first available opportunity to withstand changing climate conditions. This occurs either during an asset’s next major rehabilitation through a retrofit or at renewal, whichever comes first.

1 | Introduction and context

In June 2019, a Member of Provincial Parliament asked the FAO to analyze the costs that climate change impacts could impose on Ontario’s provincial and municipal infrastructure, and how those costs could impact the long-term budget outlook of the province. In response to this request, the FAO launched its Costing Climate Change Impacts to Public Infrastructure project (CIPI).

In the first two phases of the project, the FAO assessed the composition and state of repair of provincial[1] and municipal[2] infrastructure, with findings released in November 2020 and in August 2021. In fall 2021, the FAO released three reports: a project backgrounder[3] that describes the overall context and methodology of the CIPI project, a report prepared by WSP Global[4] that describes the detailed engineering impact of climate hazards on public infrastructure, and a report detailing how changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will impact the long-term costs of maintaining Ontario’s public buildings and facilities in a state of good repair.[5]

This report examines how changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will impact the long-term costs of maintaining public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair.

Figure 1-1 CIPI project structure and timeline

Source: FAO.

2 | Summary

Ontario's provincial and municipal governments manage a large portfolio of transportation infrastructure

These transportation assets, valued at $330 billion, include roads, bridges, large structural culverts and rail tracks. Ontario’s 444 municipalities own 82 per cent of this transportation infrastructure (or $269 billion), while the remaining 18 per cent ($61 billion) is owned by the Province (all costs are in 2020 real dollars).

The cost to maintain the existing portfolio in a state of good repair is substantial, even in a stable climate

If the climate was stable, it would cost $12.9 billion per year to bring these assets into a state of good repair and maintain them. Over the rest of the century, these costs would accumulate to approximately $1 trillion by 2100.

Changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles are already increasing the costs of maintaining Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure

In the absence of adaptation, these climate hazards are expected to increase the costs of maintaining Ontario’s transportation infrastructure by approximately $1.5 billion per year in this decade, above what would have occurred in a stable climate. By 2030, these climate-related costs would accumulate to $13.3 billion for provincial and municipal governments.

In the absence of adaptation, climate hazards will continue to increase the costs of maintaining Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure throughout the century

In a medium emissions scenario, where global emissions peak by mid-century, these climate hazards would increase infrastructure costs by an average of $2.2 billion per year, totalling $171 billion in additional costs by 2100. This is a 17 per cent increase in costs relative to a stable climate scenario. In the high emissions scenario, where global emissions continue rising throughout the century, transportation infrastructure costs would instead increase by $4.1 billion per year on average, totalling $322 billion by 2100. This is a 32 per cent increase in costs relative to a stable climate scenario.

Adapting public transportation infrastructure to withstand these climate hazards will cost less than not adapting over the long term

Depending on the emissions scenario, adapting public transportation infrastructure will add between $110 billion to $229 billion to infrastructure costs relative to a stable climate scenario by 2100. This represents a cost increase between 11 and 23 per cent. While significant, these additional climate-related costs are lower than those incurred in the absence of adaptation.

Costing climate impacts to public infrastructure over the long term is subject to significant uncertainty

The extent of global climate change will have a direct impact on Ontario’s public infrastructure costs. Climate-related costs will depend on the future path of global emissions, the vulnerability of infrastructure to changing climate hazards, and the pace of adaptation. The FAO’s study presents median cost projections as well as a range of possible cost outcomes in each scenario that account for this uncertainty.

This study focused on three climate hazards but excluded others, such as wildfires and ice storms. Costs to governments were estimated, but the broader economic costs to households or businesses from damaged transportation infrastructure were not included. These impacts were beyond the scope of this report but are likely material. These subjects would benefit from further research.

Figure 2-1 Adapting Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure will cost Provincial and municipal governments less than not adapting in a changing climate

Note: The costs in this chart are based on the median (or 50th percentile) projection under each emissions scenario and are in addition to the baseline costs over the same period. For presentation purposes, the uncertainty bands are not shown in this figure.

Source: FAO.

3 | The long-term costs of maintaining public transportation infrastructure

This chapter presents the scope of public transportation infrastructure considered in this report, discusses the costs necessary to maintain these assets in a state of good repair, and estimates the long-term infrastructure costs required to maintain infrastructure to 2100 under a stable climate. The purpose of this chapter is to establish a baseline projection of infrastructure costs. In later chapters, this baseline is compared to projections that account for changes in certain climate hazards.

There is a large portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in Ontario

This report focuses on transportation infrastructure owned and controlled by provincial and municipal governments. The FAO estimates that the current replacement value[6] (CRV) of these assets is at least $330 billion in 2022.[7] The public transportation assets included in the scope of this report are roads, bridges, large structural culverts as well as transit engineering assets:[8]

  • Roads include arterial roads, collector roads, highways, lanes and alleys, local roads, rural highways, and sidewalks. In this report, road CRV represents the cost of road reconstruction.[9]
  • Bridges include those located on arterial roads, collector roads, and highways, as well as local bridges and footbridges. Bridge CRV represents the cost of replacing a bridge with one of equal functionality.
  • Large structural culverts include those greater than three metres in diameter. Culvert CRV represents the cost of replacing a culvert with one of equal functionality.
  • Transit engineering assets include rail (tracks). Transit CRV represents the cost of replacing existing rail tracks.

Ontario’s municipal governments own $269 billion of the transportation infrastructure assets in scope (82 per cent), while the provincial government owns $61 billion (18 per cent).[10]

Figure 3-1 Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure covered in this report has a current replacement value of $330 billion

Note: CRV estimates are in real 2020 billion dollars. Percentage values refer to a sector’s share of total CRV.

Source: FAO.

Maintaining a large portfolio of public transportation infrastructure requires constant spending

Keeping assets in a state of good repair helps to maximize the benefits of public infrastructure in the most cost-effective manner over time. To be maintained in a state of good repair, assets require annual operations and maintenance (O&M) spending, as well as intermittent capital spending either to rehabilitate[11] an asset or renew it at the end of its service life.[12]

The costs to maintain public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair reflect both the value of assets owned, as well as the condition, age and performance standards of each individual asset under management. For example, assets in poorer condition require more capital spending to bring them into a state of good repair. Likewise, older assets must be renewed sooner than newer assets.

To project the costs of maintaining public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair, the FAO gathered and estimated asset-specific information on age, condition and current replacement value, as well as the general performance standards used to evaluate if an asset is in a state of good repair. Using an infrastructure deterioration model based on modelling techniques developed by the Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure,[13] the FAO projected the capital and operating expenses necessary to maintain the current portfolio[14] of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair to 2100, in the absence of climate considerations.[15]

These long-term O&M, rehabilitation, and renewal spending estimates form the baseline projection against which the climate change costing scenarios will be compared. The baseline projection represents the infrastructure costs that would have been required to maintain public transportation infrastructure in a stable climate.[16] This allows the FAO to identify the additional climate-related infrastructure costs that are associated with changing climate hazards in later chapters.

Given the long useful service life of public transportation infrastructure, costs are projected to 2100. The results in this report are presented as average annual costs, as well as cumulative total costs over the century. Average annual costs are also presented over three time periods.

  • The short term (2022-2030) shows how changing climate hazards are already impacting public infrastructure costs in the current decade.
  • The mid-century (2031-2070) captures the period in which projections for the relevant climate variables begin to diverge in the three global emissions scenarios examined in this report (see Figure 4-3).
  • The late century (2071-2100) captures the period where projections for the relevant climate variables diverge significantly in the three global emissions scenarios examined in this report.

$12.9 billion per year needed to maintain the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a stable climate

The FAO projects that bringing Ontario’s existing suite of public transportation infrastructure assets into a state of good repair and maintaining them until 2100 would have cost an average of $12.9 billion per year in a stable climate, which would accumulate to approximately $1 trillion by the end of the century. This cumulative baseline cost includes $362 billion ($4.6 billion per year) in O&M expense and $653 billion ($8.3 billion per year) in rehabilitation and renewal expense to 2100.

Figure 3-2 The costs of maintaining Ontario's public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair to 2100 in a stable climate (real 2020 dollars)

Source: FAO.

In the short term, provincial and municipal governments would need to spend approximately $11 billion per year to bring this portfolio of public transportation infrastructure into a state of good repair and maintain it. These average annual costs rise to $13.4 billion in the mid-century period, when a significant share of Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure begins to be replaced. By late century, it would take $12.6 billion per year to maintain this portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a stable climate.

Figure 3-3 Maintaining Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure in a stable climate would have cost $12.9 billion per year

Source: FAO.

All infrastructure cost projections presented in this report assume that the funding necessary to bring and maintain the current portfolio of transportation infrastructure into a state of good repair is made available and spent in a timely manner. In practice, infrastructure repair backlogs exist and maintaining assets in a state of good repair is only one aspect of asset management. The baseline cost projection does not include any spending associated with assets either currently under construction, planned for future construction or necessary to meet future infrastructure demand.[17]

4 | The cost of key climate hazards to transportation infrastructure

Climate change is associated with many hazards to public infrastructure, which can take the form of extreme weather events or long-term chronic impacts. Ontario has been subject to costly floods and ice storms and is also prone to droughts, intense rainfall, wildfires, windstorms, heatwaves, and permafrost melt.[18] This project focuses on only three climate hazards – extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles – as they were determined to have broad and financially material impacts to public infrastructure and can be projected with a reasonable degree of scientific confidence.[19]

This chapter summarizes how projected changes in these climate hazards would impact Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure in the absence of adaptation measures. It then presents the FAO’s estimates of the additional long-term costs these climate hazards would impose on Ontario’s portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in medium and high emissions scenarios.

Changing extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will impact transportation infrastructure

To ensure safety and reliability, infrastructure is designed, built and maintained to withstand a specific range of climate conditions typically based on historic climatic loads.[20] However, extreme rainfall and extreme heat are projected to increase in the future, while freeze-thaw cycles are projected to decrease.[21]

Changing climate hazards will impact transportation infrastructure assets in different ways. Of all the possible hazard–asset type interactions, this report examines six impacts: extreme rainfall and extreme heat on roads, extreme rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles on bridges, extreme rainfall on large structural culverts, and extreme heat on transit engineering (Figure 4-1). The following section provides an overview of how these climate hazards will impact the different asset types.[22]

Figure 4-1 Scope of interactions between selected climate hazards and public transportation asset types

Source: WSP and FAO.

Roads

Extreme rainfall will impact road infrastructure most significantly in acute events (i.e., 100-year storm events[23]) as roads are typically considered resilient to less-intense rainfall events. Washouts and flooding during severe rainfall events can overwhelm drainage features and damage pavement. Extreme rainfall can also cause water to penetrate the base and sub-base materials, leading to increased deterioration and cracking.

Extreme heat in the form of ambient temperatures over 30°C creates conditions where heat dissipates less efficiently, softening the asphalt pavement. This increases the road’s vulnerability to rutting and cracking, which can lead to increased water infiltration, weakening the base/sub-base and causing surface issues such as potholes.

Freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) are fluctuations between freezing and non-freezing temperatures that cause water to freeze (and expand) or melt (and contract). In contrast to vertical infrastructure (e.g., buildings) where less water accumulates due to gravity runoff, horizontal infrastructure like roads have the potential to accumulate water that penetrates sub-layers. The melting and re-freezing of accumulated water can then damage road surfaces. While the FAO conducted a preliminary analysis of this impact, there was low confidence in the costing results due to the lack of research on the combined impacts of moisture and frost conditions on roads. As such, the costing results for freeze-thaw cycles on roads were excluded from this report.

Bridges

Extreme rainfall will impact bridges as acute events (i.e., 100-year storm events) through runoff and flooding. These events will erode embankments and approaches, as well as scour and erode both bridge substructures and shallow bridge foundations. Deep bridge foundations will be negligibly impacted.

Freeze-thaw cycles contribute to the weathering of bridge decks and barriers, causing concrete cracking. However, the projected decline in the number of annual freeze-thaw cycles will increase the service life of vertical concrete. FTCs are not expected to significantly impact other bridge components, including the superstructure, substructure, and the layer below the asphalt pavement.[24]

Large Structural Culverts

Extreme rainfall will impact large structural culverts as acute events (i.e., 100-year storm events) through increased erosion. Channel protection will also be vulnerable to washout and scour damages.

Transit Engineering

Extreme heat in the form of chronically high ambient temperatures over 30°C can cause stress on steel rail tracks and other alignment components such as rail brace, tie plates and insulated joints. Higher temperatures also increase friction between train wheels and tracks, potentially resulting in track buckling. Just a few hours of above-average heat are enough to cause problems, with buckling probability increasing rapidly once temperatures exceed around 35°C.[25]

Figure 4-2 Examples of climate hazard impacts to key components of public transportation infrastructure

Note: For more examples of how these climate hazards impact transportation infrastructure, see WSP 2021.

Source: WSP.

Most climate hazards to public transportation infrastructure will increase

The impacts of changing climate hazards on Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure will depend on the path of global greenhouse gas emissions and the extent of global mean temperature increases. The FAO costed climate impacts to public transportation infrastructure for three global emissions scenarios:

  • A low emissions scenario that assumes a major and immediate turnaround in global climate policies. Emissions are projected to peak in the early 2020s and decline to zero by the 2080s. By the end of the century, net emissions are negative. In this scenario, global mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.6°C (0.8 to 2.4°C) by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial average (1850-1900).[26] The key results for this scenario are presented in Appendix F.
  • A medium emissions scenario, where global emissions peak in the 2040s, then decline rapidly over the following four decades before stabilizing at the end of the century. In this scenario, the global mean temperature is projected to increase by 2.3°C (1.7 to 3.2°C) by 2100 relative to 1850-1900.
  • A high emissions scenario that assumes global emissions continue to grow for most of the century.[27] Global mean temperatures are projected to increase by 4.2°C (3.2 to 5.4°C) relative to 1850-1900. Cumulative emissions from 2005 to 2020 most closely match the high emissions scenario.[28]

Uncertainty in climate change projections

The FAO partnered with the Canadian Centre for Climate Services at Environment and Climate Change Canada to acquire projections of key climate indicators for Ontario. To account for uncertainty in climate projections and in line with common practice in climate science, the median (50th percentile) projections of climate variables are presented, followed by ranges in parentheses. For Ontario climate indicators, the ranges indicate the 10th and 90th percentile projections from the ensemble of 24 climate models used by the Canadian Centre for Climate Services.

Figure 4-3 presents a brief description of the projected changes in the climate indicators used to represent these hazards. Appendix B contains a full description of all relevant climate variables to public transportation infrastructure, and their trends in all scenarios.

Figure 4-3 Changing climate hazards in Ontario

Annual number of hot days to increase
  • Projected changes in Ontario’s annual number of hot days (number of days with daily maximum temperature above 30°C) differ significantly in the low and high emissions scenarios. Over the 1976-2005 period, there were on average 4 hot days every year. Compared to this baseline, Ontario’s annual number of hot days is projected to increase by 5 days (2 to 10 days) in the low emissions scenario and by 34 days (17 to 46 days) in the high emissions scenario by the 2071-2100 period.
  • There is high confidence in the projected trends and ranges of temperature variables based on strong scientific evidence in the causes of observed changes.[29]
Extreme rainfall to increase
  • Compared to the 1976-2005 baseline, the intensity of a 24-hour 1-in-100-year rainfall event in Ontario is projected to increase by 15 per cent (10 to 23 per cent) in the low emissions scenario and by 53 per cent (38 to 78 per cent) in the high emissions scenario by the 2071-2100 period.
  • Over the 1976-2005 period, the average 1-in-100-year 24-hour rainfall in Ontario was 103 mm. By the 2071-2100 period, there is projected to be on average 118 mm (113 to 127 mm) of rain in the low emissions scenario and 158 mm (142 to 185 mm) of rain in the high emissions scenario.
  • Confidence in the projected trends and ranges of aggregate precipitation variables is somewhat lower (medium) than for temperature variables as there is less confidence in how well climate models represent the climate processes involved.
Annual freeze-thaw cycles to decline
  • Annual FTCs are the number of days in a year when the temperature crosses 0°C. Over the coming decades, the winter season will shorten due to rising temperatures. Ontario’s annual FTCs are projected to decline by 5 per cent (0 to 15 per cent) in the low emissions scenario and by 15 per cent (0 to 25 per cent) in the high emissions scenario by the 2071-2100 period.
  • Over the 1976-2005 period, there were on average 77 freeze-thaw cycles every year. Compared to this baseline, Ontario’s annual number of FTCs is projected to decrease by 4 cycles (-12 to 0 cycles) in the low emissions scenario and by 12 cycles (-19 to 0 cycles) in the high emissions scenario by the 2071-2100 period.
  • There is high confidence in the projections of annual FTCs based on the amount of evidence for projected trends and ranges of temperature variables.

Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Services.

Climate hazards are raising the cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure

In this section, the FAO presents the cost projections in a no adaptation asset management strategy. In this strategy, asset managers do not adapt public transportation infrastructure to withstand changing climate hazards, but instead pay higher costs to maintain their assets in a state of good repair in the face of increasing climate hazards. While in practice there are many climate change adaptation initiatives under way, the intent of the no adaptation strategy is to explore the financial implications of not adapting public transportation infrastructure to these climate hazards.

In the absence of adaptation actions, increasing extreme weather events will shorten the useful service life (USL) of public transportation infrastructure, requiring more frequent and additional rehabilitations relative to the “stable climate” scenario. Changing climate hazards will also result in higher spending on operations and maintenance (O&M). Taken together, these factors will increase the costs of maintaining the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair. These additional infrastructure costs, above what would have occurred in a stable climate, are defined as “damage costs.”

In the medium emissions scenario (median projection), the average annual cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair will increase by $2.2 billion per year over the century.This represents a 17 per cent increase in costs over what would have occurred in a stable climate. These average annual costs fluctuate from $1.4 billion per year this decade, to $2.4 billion in the mid-century period as climate hazards continue to moderately deteriorate. By late century, these costs amount to $2.1 billion per year as climate hazards stabilize in this period in the medium emissions scenario (see Figure 4-3).

Figure 4-4 Changing climate hazards will raise the cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in the absence of adaptation

Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purposes.

Source: FAO.

In the high emissions scenario (median projection), average annual infrastructure costs would instead increase by $4.1 billion per year over the century, a 32 per cent increase in costs relative to the stable climate scenario. In this case, climate-related costs increase from $1.6 billion this decade, to an average of $3.1 billion in the mid-century period, and continue rising to $6.1 billion by late century. This occurs due to the continued deterioration of climate hazards in the high emissions scenario.

Figure 4-5 Uncertainty ranges around annual climate-related costs widen over time

Source: FAO.

There is uncertainty in the extent of warming that will occur in each emissions scenario (see Page 17), as well as engineering uncertainty in how changing climate hazards will impact Ontario’s infrastructure (see Appendix C). The full range of average annual climate-related costs is presented in Figure 4-5.

These average annual costs would cumulate over the projection. In the short term, changing climate hazards are already adding to the cost of maintaining public transportation infrastructure. Annual climate-related costs across the medium and high emissions scenarios average $1.5 billion from 2022-2030, which would accumulate to approximately $13.3 billion by 2030 in the absence of adaptation.[30] This is a 13 per cent increase in provincial and municipal infrastructure costs relative to the stable climate projection.

Figure 4-6 In the absence of adaptation, climate-related costs accumulate to significant sums by 2100

Source: FAO.

In the medium emissions scenario (median projection), the cumulative cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair will increase by $171 billion over the century.This represents a 17 per cent increase in costs over what would have occurred in a stable climate. These cumulative costs could range from $89 billion to $298 billion given the climate and engineering uncertainties.

In the high emissions scenario (median projection), the cumulative cost would instead increase by $322 billion (a 32 per cent increase), with a range of $180 billion to $522 billion.

5 | Adapting public transportation infrastructure to climate hazards

Chapter 4 described the financial impact of not adapting public transportation infrastructure to the projected changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles. In practice, transportation infrastructure can be adapted to withstand these impacts – ensuring that assets perform to the same standards for which they were initially designed and avoiding accelerated deterioration or higher O&M expenses.

This chapter discusses different forms of adaptation, defines the scope of adaptation analyzed in this report, and estimates a range of costs to adapt Ontario’s portfolio of public transportation infrastructure to withstand the late-century climate projections for extreme rainfall and extreme heat in the medium and high emissions scenarios.[31]

Adapting public transportation infrastructure can help prevent the impacts of climate hazards

Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure assets have long useful lives. Of the $330 billion in infrastructure, nearly 72 per cent has a remaining useful life of more than 40 years. Given the long useful lives of public transportation infrastructure assets, late-century climate conditions are relevant to adaptation decisions being made now. These decisions will impact public infrastructure costs throughout the century.

However, climate projections depend on the trajectory of global emissions, which remains uncertain. This raises the difficult question of how projected changes in key climate hazards should be accounted for when public transportation infrastructure is designed, built or retrofitted.[32]

Figure 5-1 Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure assets have long remaining useful lives

Source: FAO.

Adapting transportation infrastructure to changing climate hazards could take many forms. A few examples include:

  • updating infrastructure design parameters to a higher standard, including those detailed in the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code;[33]
  • using Intensity-Duration-Frequency tools that project future rainfall intensities for the design and replacement of transportation infrastructure;[34]
  • using pavement mixes for roads with higher heat tolerance;[35]
  • expanding the drainage capacity of culverts;[36]
  • using thermosyphons to maintain permafrost stability and improve northern road and highway performance;[37] and
  • changing the way assets are managed, for example, altering the frequency of operations and maintenance schedules.[38]

In the FAO’s framework, adaptation is modelled as an alteration of the physical components of transportation infrastructure to prevent damage costs caused by changing climate hazards.[39] Figure 5‑2 presents some examples of adaptation measures for transportation infrastructure components.[40]

Figure 5-2 Examples of transportation infrastructure adaptations to climate hazards

Note: For more examples of how transportation infrastructure components can be adapted to climate hazards, see WSP 2021.

Source: WSP.

Adaptation strategy costs vary based on the approach taken

To estimate adaptation costs, the FAO assumed that public transportation infrastructure is adapted at the time of rehabilitation or renewal to withstand the late-century projections[41] of each climate hazard.[42] Once an asset is adapted, the FAO assumes that it no longer faces additional O&M and capital expenses due to changing climate hazards.[43] However, since adaptation increases the value of an asset, its post-adaptation O&M and capital expenses also increase, reflecting its higher value.

The additional infrastructure costs of an adaptation strategy include: higher capital expenses from increased deterioration and higher O&M expenses until adaptation, a one-time adaptation expense (either through a retrofit or renewal), and higher O&M and capital expenses required to maintain higher-valued adapted assets. The costs presented in this chapter would occur instead of those estimated in the no adaptation strategy presented in Chapter 4.

The costs of an adaptation strategy would vary based on when the adaptation actions are undertaken. To highlight how the costs could vary, the FAO developed two adaptation strategies.

  • Reactive adaptation strategy: Transportation assets are only adapted at the time of renewal. This approach results in a gradual increase in the share of adapted assets over the century, with roughly 90 per cent of assets adapted by 2100. The remaining 10 per cent have service lives that extend beyond 2100 and are not renewed or adapted over the projection.
  • Proactive adaptation strategy: Transportation assets are adapted at the first available opportunity. This occurs either during an asset’s next major rehabilitation through a retrofit[44] or at renewal, whichever comes first. In this approach, all transportation assets are adapted by the 2050s.

Figure 5-3 The reactive adaptation strategy leaves most public transportation assets vulnerable to changing climate hazards throughout the mid-century.

Source: FAO.

Projecting public transportation infrastructure costs in the reactive adaptation strategy

In the medium emissions scenario (median projection), the average annual cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair will increase by $1.7 billion per year over the century.This represents a 13 per cent increase in costs over what would have occurred in a stable climate. These average annual costs fluctuate from $1.6 billion per year this decade, to $2.4 billion in the mid-century period as the share of adapted assets rises from nine per cent in 2030 to 66 per cent in 2070. By late century, these costs decline to $0.8 billion per year as adapted public transportation assets avoid damage costs associated with late century climate conditions (see Figure 5-3).

In the high emissions scenario (median projection), average annual infrastructure costs would instead increase by $2.9 billion per year over the century, a 23 per cent increase in costs relative to the stable climate scenario. In this case, climate-related costs increase from $2.1 billion this decade, to an average of $3.4 billion in the mid-century period, then declining to $2.5 billion in the late century period. Costs in this scenario reflect higher damage costs from more extreme climate hazards, as well as higher adaptation costs to enable public transportation infrastructure to withstand these hazards.

Figure 5-4 Adaptation will raise transportation infrastructure costs, but more so in the high emissions scenario

Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose.

Source: FAO

Given the uncertain extent of warming that will occur in each emissions scenario, as well as the engineering uncertainty in costing the array of adaptation options, the full range of climate-related costs is presented in Figure 5-5.

These projected annual costs will accumulate over the remainder of this century. In the first decade of the reactive adaptation strategy, approximately nine per cent of public transportation assets are adapted, while the remaining assets continue to incur damage costs.

The FAO projects that these climate-related costs would accumulate to approximately $14 billion by 2030 in the medium emissions scenario (a 15 per cent increase in provincial and municipal infrastructure costs relative to the stable climate projection), or approximately $19 billion by 2030 in the high emissions scenario (a 19 per cent increase).[45]

Figure 5-5 Climate-related costs are subject to climate and engineering uncertainty

Source: FAO.

In the medium emissions scenario (median projection), the cumulative cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair will increase by $135 billion over the century.This represents a 13 per cent increase in costs over what would have occurred in a stable climate. These cumulative costs could range from $67 billion to $235 billion given the climate and engineering uncertainties.

In the high emissions scenario (median projection), the cumulative cost would instead increase by $229 billion (a 23 per cent increase), with a range of $129 billion to $374 billion.

Figure 5-6 Cumulative climate-related costs in the reactive adaptation strategy to 2100

Source: FAO.

Projecting public transportation infrastructure costs in the proactive adaptation strategy

In the proactive adaptation strategy,transportation assets are adapted at the first available opportunity. It is assumed that over 50 per cent of infrastructure assets are adapted by 2030 and 100 per cent are adapted by 2070 (see Figure 5-3).

In the medium emissions scenario (median projection), the average annual cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair will increase by $1.4 billion per year over the century.This represents an 11 per cent increase in costs over what would have occurred in a stable climate. These average annual costs decline from $2.9 billion per year this decade (when over half of public transportation assets are assumed to be adapted), to $1.4 billion in the mid-century period, and to $1.0 billion per year by late century, as adapted public transportation assets avoid damage costs associated with late century climate conditions (see Figure 5-7).

In the high emissions scenario (median projection), average annual infrastructure costs would instead increase by $2.7 billion per year over the century, a 21 per cent increase in costs relative to the stable climate scenario. In this case, climate-related costs decline from $5.2 billion per year this decade, to an average of $2.8 billion in the mid-century period, then declining to $2.0 billion in the late century period. Costs in this scenario reflect higher damage costs from more extreme climate hazards, as well as higher adaptation costs to enable public transportation infrastructure to withstand these hazards.

Figure 5-7 Adaptation will raise transportation infrastructure costs, but more so in the high emissions scenario

Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose.

Source: FAO

However, given the uncertain extent of warming that will occur in each emissions scenario, as well as the engineering uncertainty in costing the array of adaptation options, the full range of annual climate-related costs is presented in Figure 5-8.

In the first decade of the proactive adaptation strategy, approximately 53 per cent of public transportation assets are assumed to be adapted, while the remaining assets continue to incur damage costs.

The FAO projects that these climate-related costs would accumulate to approximately $26 billion by 2030 in the medium emissions scenario(a 26 per cent increase in provincial and municipal infrastructure costs relative to the stable climate projection), or approximately $47 billion by 2030 in the high emissions scenario (a 47 per cent increase).[46]

Figure 5-8 Climate-related costs are subject to climate and engineering uncertainty

Source: FAO.

In the medium emissions scenario (median projection), the cumulative cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair will increase by $110 billion over the century.This represents an 11 per cent increase in costs over what would have occurred in a stable climate. These cumulative costs could range from $46 billion to $210 billion given the climate and engineering uncertainties.

In the high emissions scenario (median projection), the cumulative cost would instead increase by $217 billion (a 21 per cent increase), with a range of $111 billion to $386 billion.

Figure 5-9 Cumulative climate-related costs in the proactive adaptation strategy to 2100

Source: FAO.

6 | Comparing different asset management strategies

Chapters 4 and 5 examined the costs of maintaining public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair in the presence of climate change under three asset management strategies: no adaptation, reactive adaptation and proactive adaptation. None of the strategies presented in this report are meant to be a precise representation of future costs, and the portfolio level costing results are not intended to inform asset-specific management decisions. These strategies were designed to estimate the scale of the budgetary impact that changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will impose on the Province and municipalities over the rest of the century.

This chapter compares cost estimates across the three asset management strategies and discusses the difference in cost profiles between them. The chapter then discusses the factors that were beyond the scope of the FAO’s analysis but are relevant in determining the most cost-effective strategy for managing Ontario's public transportation infrastructure in a changing climate.

Adapting public transportation infrastructure is less expensive than not adapting over the long term

The financial impact of extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will be material to the Province and municipalities regardless of which asset management strategy is pursued. However, the FAO estimates that on an undiscounted basis, the cumulative costs by the end of the 21st century are the highest under the no adaptation strategy and lowest under the proactive adaptation strategy under both emissions scenarios. For a discussion of these cost profiles on a discounted basis, see Appendix D.

Figure 6-1 shows that the future path of global climate change will influence the extent of additional climate-related infrastructure costs, which are much lower in the medium emissions scenario than in the high emissions scenario (median projections) across all asset management strategies.

Figure 6-1 Adapting Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure will cost Provincial and municipal governments less than not adapting in a changing climate

Note: The costs in this chart are based on the median (or 50th percentile) projection under each emissions scenario and are in addition to the baseline costs over the same period. Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose.

Source: FAO.

Proactively adapting public transportation infrastructure requires higher upfront costs but rapidly reduces climate vulnerability

Figure 6-2 shows how costs accumulate in the medium and high emissions scenarios (median projections) under the three asset management strategies.

Figure 6-2 The three asset management strategies have different cost profiles

Note: The costs in this chart are based on the median (or 50th percentile) projection under each emissions scenario and are in addition to the baseline costs over the same period. Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose.

Source: FAO.

In the first half of the century, the cost profiles of the no adaptation strategy and the reactive adaptation strategyare similar, as damage costs from worsening climate hazards are incurred in both strategies. These costs profiles diverge in the second half of the century as the impact of more frequent and intense climate hazards becomes more costly in the no adaptation strategy, whereas these costs are avoided in the reactive adaptation strategy since over 66 per cent of public transportation assets are adapted by 2070 (see Figure 5-3).

The proactive adaptation strategy sees a substantial accumulation in costs over the next four decades as all assets are adapted by the 2050s, rapidly reducing the vulnerability of Ontario’s transportation infrastructure to these changing climate hazards. The result is a much slower accumulation of costs in the second half of the century, as climate damages are avoided. By the end of the century, the proactive adaptation strategy results in the lowest cumulative additional costs of the three strategies in real 2020 dollars.

Costs to households and businesses should be included in assessing the cost-effectiveness of adaptation action

This report accounts for the direct infrastructure costs to government but excludes any costs to households or businesses from infrastructure service disruptions. For example, if a municipal road becomes damaged and must be repaired, this analysis includes only the cost of those repairs to the municipality, not the costs to households and businesses of traffic delays.[47]

Examples of costs to households and businesses include the following:

  • Traffic congestion occurs during the rehabilitation and renewal of transportation assets, slowing travel times and impacting productivity. For example, a recent Canadian Climate Institute study of the climate impacts to public infrastructure states that: “…the costs of delays and travel disruptions on road and rail systems could be nearly as high as the costs of direct physical damage to the infrastructure itself.”[48]
  • Beyond the delay costs, climate-related disruptions to transportation networks would impact supply chains, the labour market and the economy more broadly.[49]
  • Climate-related disruptions to transportation networks also have non-financial costs, including increased response times to health and environmental emergencies,[50] or higher risks of being cut off from vital services in rural and remote communities.

Costing these broader societal impacts was beyond the scope of this report. These costs are likely to be material and if added, would likely show further benefits of adapting public transportation infrastructure. Estimating these impacts would be a useful area of future research.

Making asset-specific adaptation decisions should consider many other factors

Costing three different asset management strategies at the portfolio level was designed to estimate the scale of the budgetary impact that changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles could impose over the rest of the century. However, to make asset-specific climate adaptation decisions, many other factors should be considered,[51] including:

  • an asset’s individual characteristics (including age, condition and specific climate vulnerabilities);
  • a wider array of climate impacts over the entire useful life of an asset;
  • costs to households and businesses; and
  • non-asset related considerations, including surrounding infrastructure. For example, if a section of stormwater pipe located underneath a road is being replaced (or adapted), adapting the road may also be considered.

Incorporating these factors would further enhance the FAO’s methodology and would better support adaptation decision-making for individual assets in a changing climate.

7 | Appendix

Appendix A: Scope of transportation sector assets analyzed

Table A-1: Provincial and municipal transportation infrastructure valued at $330 billion (current replacement value) included in the scope of this report Note: The age data presented are as of 2020. The CRV of provincial and municipal roads has been revised to incorporate the unit costs from the Parametric Estimating Guide (2021) by the MTO. For the detailed methodology used to obtain the CRV of rest of the sectors, see Appendix C of the FAO’s Provincial Infrastructure report and Appendix D of the FAO’s Municipal Infrastructure report. Source: FAO analysis of municipal data and provincial data as detailed in Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2020 and 2021a.
Level of Government Sector Total CRV (2020$ billions) Description
Provincial Roads $19
  • Roads and highways in Ontario are managed by the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) in partnership with the Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Mines, and Ministry of Northern Development.
  • These assets include the highway and road network owned by the Province. In total, there are over 40,000 lane kilometres of pavement.
  • Of the 40,000 lane kilometres of pavement, the Northern Highways Program (Ministry of Mines, and Ministry of Northern Development as well as MTO) manages about 24,000 lane kilometres in the Northeast and Northwest regions, and the Southern Highways Program (MTO) manages about 17,000 lane kilometres.
  • The 40,000 lane kilometres of pavements are also divided into around 1,900 sections and include four classes of highways and roads: freeway (28 per cent), collector (12 per cent), arterial (38 per cent) and local (22 per cent).
  • This sector also includes bus rapid transit roadways owned by Metrolinx.
Bridges $23
  • There are roughly 2,800 provincially owned bridges.
Large Structural Culverts (>3 metres) $5
  • There are roughly 2,000 provincially owned culverts.
Transit Engineering $13
  • Ontario’s transit assets are owned by Metrolinx, which operates primarily in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area, and Ontario Northland Transportation Commission (ONTC), which operates primarily in northeastern Ontario.
  • Metrolinx owns the GO Transit network, which includes about 360 route kilometres of owned rail corridor.
Municipal Roads $221
  • Includes arterial roads, collector roads, highways, lanes and alleys, local roads, rural highways and sidewalks. Overall, Ontario municipalities own an estimated 365,281 lane kilometres of roads and 44,072 kilometres of sidewalks.
  • Additionally, includes 141 kilometres of transit-owned roads.
Bridges $35
  • Includes nearly 12,500 bridges.
  • Nearly 45 per cent of these assets are local bridges, followed by arterials (25 per cent) and collectors (15 per cent), with highways, footbridges and rural highways representing the remaining 15 per cent.
  • Additionally, includes 209 bridges owned by the transit sector.
Large Structural Culverts (>3 metres) $7
  • Includes nearly 11,246 culverts.
Transit Engineering $6
  • Linear engineering transit infrastructure includes an estimated 408 kilometres of transit-owned tracks.

Appendix B: Scope of climate variables used in costing analysis

The Canadian Centre for Climate Services provided the projections of all climate indicators used in the FAO’s costing analysis. Depending on the nature of the hazard’s interaction with specific transportation infrastructure components, different climate indicators were used. See WSP’s report for a full description and rationale.[52]

Table B-1: Projected change in relevant climate variables from 1976-2005 to 2071-2100, Ontario average Note: Numbers are rounded. Median (50th percentile) projections of climate variables are presented, followed by ranges in parentheses. Ranges show the 10th and 90th percentile projections. Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Services.
Climate Hazard Variable Definition Low Emissions (RCP2.6) Medium Emissions (RCP4.5) High Emissions (RCP8.5)
Extreme Heat Annual number of hot days Annual number of days with daily maximum temperature above 30°C +6 days or +138.9% (+2 to 10 days or +64.2 to 223.1%) +13 days or +336.5% (+6 to 18 days or +167.8 to 422.0%) +34 days or +860.7% (+17 to 46 days or +493.8 to 1050.6%)
Extreme Rainfall IDF 24-hour 1:100 Short duration rainfall intensity for a 24-hour 1-in-100-year event +14.6% (+9.8 to 23.5%) +24.9% (+16.1 to 39.4%) +53.0% (+38.0 to 78.2%)
Freeze-Thaw Cycles Annual freeze-thaw cycles Annual number of days with daily maximum temperature above 0°C and daily minimum temperature below 0°C -5.5% (-15.2 to 0.0%) -12.1% (-19.2 to 0.0%) -15.1% (-24.9 to 0.0%)

The full suite of climate data used in the CIPI project is available at the CIPI section of the FAO’s website.

Appendix C: The impact of changing climate hazards on key transportation infrastructure costs

This appendix presents the impact of climate hazards on the key infrastructure costs for roads, bridges, large structural culverts and transit engineering assets. First, the appendix presents the total impact of the climate hazards considered in this study on the useful service life (USL) and operations and maintenance (O&M) spending in the absence of adaptation, as well as the costs of retrofit and renewal adaptation to prevent these climate damages. Next, the appendix presents a detailed breakdown of the impact of each climate hazard on O&M spending and USL by asset type.

To establish relationships between relevant climate indicators and key infrastructure costs, the FAO worked with WSP, a large engineering firm with expertise in all aspects of public sector infrastructure, including asset management, public infrastructure construction and operations, and climate change impacts.

The FAO and WSP first established which of the three climate hazards could have the most significant impact, and on which asset type. As each hazard would interact with each asset-type in a different way, it was agreed that WSP would focus attention on the “interactions” that could present the greatest financial impact to asset managers. For example, while extreme heat may impact bridges, because the impact of extreme rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles was deemed more important, only these hazards were examined.

WSP estimated relationships between changing climate variables and infrastructure costs by surveying relevant engineering experts. To account for engineering uncertainty, WSP aggregated its responses and provided optimistic, pessimistic and most-likely cost relationships.[53] This forms the basis on which the FAO estimated the additional costs of climate hazards to public transportation infrastructure in Ontario.[54] ­­

While regional climate projections were used to develop the FAO’s infrastructure cost estimates, for simplicity, this appendix presents Ontario-average infrastructure cost results by asset type. The results reflect a weighted average climate projection based on the proportion of assets (by CRV) located in each region.[55] The charts below provide three estimates for each infrastructure cost impact in the medium and high emissions scenarios:

  • The solid lines represent the most likely infrastructure cost impact for the 50th percentile climate projection.
  • The upper limit of the uncertainty bands represents the pessimistic infrastructure cost impact for the 90th percentile climate projection.
  • The lower limit of the uncertainty bands represents the optimistic infrastructure cost impacts of the 10th percentile climate projection.
Figure C-1: Roads – Cumulative impact of extreme rainfall and extreme heat Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. Source: FAO. Accessible version

In Absence of Adaptation

Useful Service Life
  • Trends in extreme rainfall and extreme heat are projected to reduce the USL of public roads in Ontario in both emissions scenarios.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 12.1 per cent by the end of the century.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 31.1 per cent by the end of the century.
Operations & Maintenance
  • Trends in extreme rainfall and extreme heat are projected to increase the O&M (as a share of CRV) of public roads in Ontario in both emissions scenario.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 0.6 percentage point of CRV by the end of the century.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 1.5 percentage points of CRV by the end of the century.

Adaptation Costs

Retrofit Costs
  • The cost of retrofitting the average public road to withstand the trends in extreme rainfall and extreme heat will vary with the extent of these increases.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public road is projected to be 10.2 per cent of CRV by 2100.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public road is projected to be 25.9 per cent of CRV by 2100.
Renewal Costs
  • The cost of replacing the average public road with one that can withstand trends in extreme rainfall and extreme heat will vary with the extent of these increases.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average road with an adapted one is projected to be 9.4 per cent of CRV.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average road with an adapted one is projected to be 23.8 per cent of CRV.
Figure C-2: Bridges – Cumulative impact of extreme rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. Source: FAO. Accessible version

In Absence of Adaptation

Useful Service Life
  • The USL of public bridges is projected to decline due to the increase in extreme rainfall, with significant offsetting impacts of fewer freeze-thaw cycles.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 0.6 per cent by the end of the century.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 2.6 per cent by the end of the century.
Operations & Maintenance
  • The O&M as a share of CRV of bridges is projected to increase due to the increase in extreme rainfall.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage point of CRV by the end of the century.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 1.3 percentage points of CRV by the end of the century.

Adaptation Costs

Retrofit Costs
  • The cost of retrofitting the average public bridge to withstand increases in extreme rainfall will vary with the extent of these increases.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public bridge is projected to be 3.1 per cent of CRV by 2100.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public bridge is projected to be 7.5 per cent of CRV by 2100.
Renewal Costs
  • The cost of replacing the average public bridge with one that can withstand increases in extreme rainfall will vary with the extent of these increases.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average bridge with an adapted one is projected to be 2.8 per cent of CRV.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average bridge with an adapted one is projected to be 6.7 per cent of CRV.
Figure C-3: Large structural culverts – Impact of extreme rainfall Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. Source: FAO. Accessible version

In Absence of Adaptation

Useful Service Life
  • Increases in extreme rainfall are projected to reduce the USL of large structural culverts in Ontario in both emissions scenarios.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 13.1 per cent by the end of the century.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 31.3 per cent by the end of the century.
Operations & Maintenance
  • Increases in extreme rainfall are projected to increase the O&M (as a share of CRV) of public culverts in Ontario in both emissions scenarios.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 1.0 percentage point of CRV by the end of the century.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 2.5 percentage points of CRV by the end of the century.

Adaptation Costs

Retrofit Costs
  • The cost of retrofitting the average public culvert to withstand increases in extreme rainfall will vary with the extent of these increases.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public culvert is projected to be 24.6 per cent of CRV by 2100.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting the average public culvert is projected to be 58.9 per cent of CRV by 2100.
Renewal Costs
  • The cost of replacing the average public culvert with one that can withstand increases in extreme rainfall will vary with the extent of these increases.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average culvert with an adapted one is projected to be 10.5 per cent of CRV.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average culvert with an adapted one is projected to be 25.1 per cent of CRV.
Figure C-4: Transit engineering – Impact of extreme heat Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. Source: FAO. Accessible version

In Absence of Adaptation

Useful Service Life
  • Increases in extreme heat are projected to reduce the USL of public transit engineering assets in Ontario in both emissions scenarios.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 2.8 per cent by the end of the century.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the USL is projected to decline by 7.9 per cent by the end of the century.
Operations & Maintenance
  • Increases in extreme heat are projected to increase the O&M (as a share of CRV) of public transit engineering assets in Ontario in both emissions scenarios.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 0.4 percentage point of CRV by the end of the century.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the O&M is projected to increase by 1.2 percentage points of CRV by the end of the century.

Adaptation Costs

Retrofit Costs
  • The cost of retrofitting the average public transit engineering asset to withstand the increases in extreme heat will vary with the extent of these increases.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting an average asset is projected to be 6.4 per cent of CRV by 2100.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the cost of retrofitting an average asset is projected to be 18.0 per cent of CRV by 2100.
Renewal Costs
  • The cost of replacing the average public transit engineering asset with one that can withstand increases in extreme heat will vary with the extent of these increases.
  • In the medium emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average asset with an adapted one is projected to be 2.2 per cent of CRV.
  • In the high emissions scenario, the cost of replacing an average asset with an adapted one is projected to be 6.2 per cent of CRV.

Appendix D: The contribution of individual climate hazards to key transportation infrastructure costs in the absence of adaptation

This section provides information on how the individual climate hazards deemed financially relevant by WSP contribute to infrastructure costs for asset types that are impacted by more than one climate hazard. Since only one climate hazard was assessed for both large structural culverts and transit engineering assets, climate hazard breakdowns are not presented for these asset types.

Roads

Trends in extreme rainfall and extreme heat are both projected to drive the decline in USL and increase in O&M spending of public roads in Ontario.

Figure D-1More intense rainfall and extreme heat will contribute to the decline in USL of public roads

Source: FAO.

Figure D-2More intense rainfall and extreme heat will contribute to the increase in O&M of public roads

Source: FAO.

Bridges

Trends in extreme rainfall are projected to drive most of the decline in USL of public bridges in Ontario, while fewer freeze-thaw cycles will somewhat offset the negative impacts of extreme rainfall.

Figure D-3More intense rainfall will contribute the most to the decline in USL of public bridges, significantly offset by the decline in freeze-thaw cycles

Source: FAO.

Appendix E: Comparing the present value costs of different asset management strategies

As seen in Chapter 6, each asset management strategy has a different cost profile over time. The proactive adaptation strategy sees higher costs earlier in the century, while the no adaptation and reactive adaptation strategies see costs rise significantly in the latter part of the century. When evaluating alternative long-term financial decisions where the timing of costs varies, a standard approach is to discount real costs into present value dollars using a real discount rate. When discounted, costs incurred further in the future carry less weight relative to costs incurred sooner.

The appropriate discount rate for evaluating long-term financial decisions about climate change is subject to significant debate.[56] In a paper surveying over 200 experts, discount rates recommended ranged from zero to 10 per cent, with a median value of 2.3 per cent. Despite the wide range of recommended rates, over 90 per cent of respondents indicated they were comfortable with a rate between one and three per cent.[57]

Figure E-1 shows how the choice of discount rate impacts the present value of the total cost estimates for the median climate projections.

Figure E-1The present value cost of each asset management strategy under different discount rates

Note: The costs presented use the median (50th percentile) climate projections. Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose.

Source: FAO.

The proactive adaptation strategy has the lowest total present value costs at discount rates approximately below 3.0 per cent (medium emissions scenario) and 1.0 per cent (high emissions scenario). The reactive adaptation strategy has the lowest present value costs at discount rates between 3.0 to 5.0 per cent (medium emissions scenario) and between 1.0 to 4.0 per cent (high emissions scenario). At higher discount rates, the present-value costs of the no adaptation strategy and the reactive adaptation strategy are essentially the same, as the cost savings from thereactive adaptationstrategy are more heavily discounted at higher rates.

However, comparing the present value costs of the different adaptation strategies as outlined above should be treated with caution. This comparison does not incorporate the costs of infrastructure service disruptions to households and businesses. For example, if a road becomes damaged and must be repaired, this analysis includes the cost of those repairs, but excludes the costs to households and businesses of traffic delays.

In addition, this comparison only includes the impacts of three climate hazards, and excludes many others (such as wildfires and permafrost degradation). Lastly, these results reflect the median projections for the medium and high emissions projections, but exclude the other possible outcomes as estimated by the climate and engineering uncertainties presented throughout the report.

Appendix F: Costing results in the low emissions scenario

While the report focused on the medium and high emissions scenario, this appendix presents the costing results of the three adaptation strategies for all emissions scenarios. The additional climate-related costs in each emissions scenario are presented as cumulative summations over the century.

In the low emissions scenario, a major and immediate turnaround in global climate policies is assumed. Emissions are projected to peak in the early 2020s and decline to zero by the 2080s, limiting the rise in global mean temperatures to 1.6°C (0.8 to 2.4°C) by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial average.[58] Even in the low emissions scenario, changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will still have material financial impacts. Taken together, these hazards would raise the costs of maintaining Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure assets by $116 billion (11 per cent above baseline) by 2100 in the absence of adaptation.

Figure F-1The cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure will increase by $116 billion in the low emissions scenario in the absence of adaptation

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: WSP and FAO.

Figure F-2A reactive adaptation strategy, where assets are adapted at the end of their service life to withstand the impacts of climate hazards, will add $93 billion in infrastructure costs over the century in the low emissions scenario

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: WSP and FAO.

Figure F-3A proactive adaptation strategy, where assets are adapted at the earliest opportunity to withstand the impacts of climate hazards, will add $64 billion in infrastructure costs over the century in the low emissions scenario

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: WSP and FAO.

Appendix G: Breakdown of cumulative costs under different adaptation strategies by asset type

Table G‑1: Roads Source: FAO.
Cumulative Additional Costs (2022-2100)
Emissions Scenario Estimate Base No Adaptation ($ Billions) Reactive Adaptation ($ Billions) Proactive Adaptation ($ Billions)
Medium Low $791 $73
(9%)
$58
(7%)
$46
(6%)
Median $133
(17%)
$106
(13%)
$96
(12%)
High $238
(30%)
$184
(23%)
$177
(22%)
High Low $152
(19%)
$109
(14%)
$107
(14%)
Median $258
(33%)
$179
(23%)
$191
(24%)
High $420
(53%)
$292
(37%)
$331
(42%)
Table G‑2: Bridges * Costs in the proactive adaptation strategy are below baseline costs, since the cost decrease due to declining freeze-thaw cycles more than offsets the increase from extreme rainfall in these scenarios. Source: FAO.
Cumulative Additional Costs (2022-2100)
Emissions Scenario Estimate Base No Adaptation ($ Billions) Reactive Adaptation ($ Billions) Proactive Adaptation ($ Billions)
Medium Low $110 $8
(7%)
$4
(4%)
-$4 *
(-4%)
Median $19
(17%)
$15
(14%)
$5
(4%)
High $33
(30%)
$30
(27%)
$18
(16%)
High Low $15
(13%)
$8
(8%)
-$6 *
(-5%)
Median $35
(31%)
$28
(25%)
$9
(8%)
High $53
(48%)
$47
(43%)
$29
(26%)
Table G‑3: Large structural culverts Source: FAO.
Cumulative Additional Costs (2022-2100)
Emissions Scenario Estimate Base No Adaptation ($ Billions) Reactive Adaptation ($ Billions) Proactive Adaptation ($ Billions)
Medium Low $22 $4
(18%)
$4
(17%)
$3
(14%)
Median $11
(48%)
$9
(42%)
$6
(29%)
High $16
(73%)
$14
(65%)
$10
(46%)
High Low $7
(34%)
$7
(32%)
$6
(27%)
Median $18
(80%)
$15
(69%)
$11
(49%)
High $31
(139%)
$26
(120%)
$17
(78%)
Table G‑4: Transit engineering Note: The low estimates indicate the optimistic infrastructure cost impact for the 10th percentile climate projections, and the high estimate indicate the pessimistic infrastructure cost impact for the 90th percentile climate projections Source: FAO.
Cumulative Additional Costs (2022-2100)
Emissions Scenario Estimate Base No Adaptation ($ Billions) Reactive Adaptation ($ Billions) Proactive Adaptation ($ Billions)
Medium Low $92 $4
(4%)
$1
(1%)
$1
(1%)
Median $8
(8%)
$5
(5%)
$3
(3%)
High $11
(12%)
$7
(7%)
$5
(5%)
High Low $6
(7%)
$4
(4%)
$4
(4%)
Median $11
(12%)
$7
(7%)
$6
(7%)
High $18
(20%)
$9
(10%)
$9
(10%)

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Meyer, M.D., Amekudzi, A., and O’Har, J.P., 2010, Transportation asset management systems and climate change: adaptive systems management approach. Transportation Research Record, (2160), 12-20.

Ness, R., Clark, D. G., Bourque, J., Coffman, D., and Beugin, D., 2021, Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure, Canadian Climate Institute.

Neumann, J.E., Chinowsky, P., Helman, J.et al., 2021, Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development.Climatic Change(167),44.

Ontario Ministry of Transportation, 2017, Addressing Climate Change through Engineering Practice.

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2018, Climate-Resilient Infrastructure.

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, 2021, PCIC Science Brief: Should the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario represent “business as usual?”.

Palko, K. and Lemmen, D.S., editors, 2017, Climate risks and adaptation practices for the Canadian transportation sector 2016.

Transport Canada, 2021, Projects funded by the Northern Transportation Adaptation Initiative.

United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), 2021, Buildings and Climate Change Adaptation: A Call to Action.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2011, Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Options: An Overview of Approaches.

Warren, F.J. and Lemmen, D.S., editors, 2014, Canada in a Changing Climate: Sector Perspectives on Impacts and Adaptation, Government of Canada.

Warren, F.J. and Lulham, N., editors, 2021, Canada in a Changing Climate:National Issues Report, Government of Canada.

WSP, 2021, Costing climate change impacts and adaptation for provincial and municipal public infrastructure in Ontario, Deliverable #10 – Final Report, Toronto, Ontario. Report produced for Financial Accountability Office of Ontario.


About This Document

Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

This report was prepared by Sabrina Afroz, Nicolas Rhodes, and Jay Park under the direction of Edward Crummey. This report benefitted from contributions from Christina Rachmadita, Mavis Yang, Katrina Talavera, Laura Irish, Paul Lewis and David West. External reviewers were provided with earlier drafts of this report for their comments. However, the input of external reviewers implies no responsibility for this final report, which rests solely with the FAO.

In keeping with the FAO’s mandate to provide the Legislative Assembly of Ontario with independent economic and financial analysis, this report makes no policy recommendations.


Graphical Descriptions

Figure 1-1 CIPI project structure and timeline

  • Previously Released: Reports on Ontario’s Provincial Infrastructure and Ontario’s Municipal Infrastructure, CIPI Project Backgrounder and Methodology, WSP Report, and Report on Buildings and Facilities.
  • Current Report: Report on Public Transportation Infrastructure
  • Upcoming in 2022: Reports on Public Water Infrastructure and Summary Report

Source: FAO.

Figure 2-1 Adapting Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure will cost Provincial and municipal governments less than not adapting in a changing climate Note: The costs in this chart are based on the median (or 50th percentile) projection under each emissions scenario and are in addition to the baseline costs over the same period. For presentation purposes, the uncertainty bands are not shown in this figure. Source: FAO. Return to image
Medium Emissions Scenario High Emissions Scenario
No adaptation - additional climate-related costs $171 $322
Reactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs $135 $229
Proactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs $110 $217
Figure 3-1 Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure covered in this report has a current replacement value of $330 billion Note: CRV estimates are in real 2020 billion dollars. Percentage values refer to a sector’s share of total CRV. Source: FAO. Return to image
Level of Government Sector CRV Share
Municipal Bridges $35 10%
Large Structural Culverts $7 2%
Roads $221 67%
Transit Engineering $6 2%
Provincial Bridges $23 7%
Large Structural Culverts $5 2%
Roads $19 6%
Transit Engineering $13 4%

Figure 3-2 The costs of maintaining Ontario's public transportation infrastructure in a state of good repair to 2100 in a stable climate (real 2020 dollars)

The current replacement value (CRV) of Ontario’s current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in 2022 is $330 billion. In a stable climate, the cumulative cost of bringing and maintaining Ontario’s existing suite of public transportation infrastructure into a state of good repair until 2100 would be $1 trillion, or an average of $12.9 billion per year. This baseline cost includes $362 billion ($4.6 billion per year) in cumulative operations and maintenance (O&M) expense and $653 billion ($8.3 billion per year) in rehabilitation and renewal expense to 2100.

Source: FAO.

Figure 3-3 Maintaining Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure in a stable climate would have cost $12.9 billion per year Source: FAO. Return to image
2022-2030 2031-2070 2071-2100 2022-2100
Stable Climate $ 11.0 $ 13.4 $ 12.6 $ 12.9
Figure 4-1 Scope of interactions between selected climate hazards and public transportation asset types Source: WSP and FAO. Return to image
Extreme Heat Extreme Rainfall Freeze-thaw cycles
Roads Included in report Included in report Estimated but excluded from report
Bridges Not estimated Included in report Included in report
Large Structural Culverts Not estimated Included in report Not estimated
Transit Engineering Included in report Not estimated Not estimated
Figure 4-2 Examples of climate hazard impacts to key components of public transportation infrastructure Note: For more examples of how these climate hazards impact transportation infrastructure, see WSP 2021. Source: WSP. Return to image
Transportation Assets Includes Relevant Hazard
Roads Pavement surface, pavement base and sub-base, embankments, retention systems, drainage systems, road finishing. Extreme rainfall will increase erosion and washouts, while extreme heat will increase the risk of cracks forming through thermal weathering.
Bridges Foundations, substructure, superstructure, decks, barriers and ancillary structures. Extreme rainfall will more rapidly erode bridge foundations, embankments, and approaches, increasing deterioration and maintenance costs. Annual FTCs, which normally contribute to concrete cracking, are declining, benefitting these assets.
Large Structural Culverts Channel protection, culverts, wingwalls and headwalls. Extreme rainfall will cause erosion, wash outs and scour damages to channel protection and culverts.
Transit Engineering Steel rails, tracks, rail braces, tie plates, insulated joints, crossings. Higher temperature increases friction between train wheels and tracks, potentially resulting in the buckling of tracks. Extreme temperatures also reduce the viscosity of asphalt on which rail sits, increasing friction and erosion.
Figure 4-3 Changing climate hazards in Ontario Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purposes. Source: FAO. Return to image
Extreme Heat
Low Emissions Scenario Medium Emissions Scenario High Emissions Scenario
Year Low Median High Low Median High Low Median High
1950 1 3 5 1 3 5 1 3 5
1951 1 2 8 1 2 8 1 2 8
1952 1 3 6 1 3 6 1 3 6
1953 1 3 7 1 3 8 1 3 7
1954 1 2 4 1 2 4 1 2 4
1955 1 2 7 1 2 7 1 2 7
1956 0 3 7 0 3 7 0 3 7
1957 0 3 7 0 4 7 0 3 7
1958 1 2 4 1 2 4 1 2 4
1959 1 2 6 1 2 6 1 2 6
1960 1 3 7 1 3 6 1 3 7
1961 1 3 5 1 3 5 1 3 5
1962 0 2 5 0 2 5 0 2 5
1963 0 2 6 0 2 6 0 2 6
1964 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 2 4
1965 1 2 4 1 2 4 1 2 4
1966 0 2 5 0 2 5 0 2 5
1967 1 2 7 1 2 7 1 2 7
1968 1 2 5 1 3 5 1 2 5
1969 0 1 4 0 2 4 0 1 4
1970 1 3 7 1 2 6 1 3 7
1971 1 2 5 1 2 5 1 2 5
1972 1 2 5 1 2 5 1 2 5
1973 0 1 6 0 1 6 0 1 6
1974 1 2 5 1 3 5 1 2 5
1975 1 2 4 1 2 4 1 2 4
1976 1 2 8 1 2 8 1 2 8
1977 1 2 6 1 2 6 1 2 6
1978 1 2 5 1 2 5 1 2 5
1979 1 3 5 1 3 5 1 3 5
1980 1 2 8 1 2 7 1 2 8
1981 1 4 8 1 4 8 1 4 8
1982 1 3 7 1 3 7 1 3 7
1983 1 2 5 1 2 5 1 2 5
1984 1 3 7 1 3 6 1 3 7
1985 1 3 8 1 3 8 1 3 8
1986 1 4 6 1 3 6 1 4 6
1987 1 2 7 1 2 7 1 2 7
1988 1 3 9 1 2 9 1 3 9
1989 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10
1990 1 3 8 1 3 8 1 3 8
1991 1 4 6 2 4 7 1 4 7
1992 0 2 6 0 2 6 0 2 6
1993 1 2 6 1 2 6 1 2 6
1994 2 4 6 2 4 6 2 4 6
1995 1 3 6 1 3 6 1 3 6
1996 1 4 8 1 4 8 1 4 8
1997 2 3 7 2 4 9 2 3 7
1998 2 4 6 2 4 6 1 4 6
1999 2 4 7 2 4 7 2 4 7
2000 2 5 8 2 4 8 2 5 8
2001 2 4 7 2 4 7 2 4 7
2002 2 5 9 2 4 9 2 5 9
2003 2 4 6 2 4 6 2 5 6
2004 3 5 8 2 5 8 2 5 8
2005 2 5 10 2 5 10 2 5 10
2006 2 4 12 2 4 9 2 5 13
2007 1 5 8 2 5 10 1 4 6
2008 2 6 9 3 5 8 1 4 9
2009 3 6 10 1 5 11 3 5 9
2010 2 4 10 3 5 9 3 5 9
2011 3 5 9 3 6 12 2 5 9
2012 2 7 13 3 7 13 2 7 11
2013 2 6 12 2 6 11 2 5 9
2014 2 5 17 3 5 13 3 8 15
2015 2 5 11 3 7 20 3 6 11
2016 2 7 15 2 5 8 3 7 10
2017 4 8 13 3 5 13 2 7 15
2018 2 6 16 2 5 16 3 8 13
2019 3 5 13 2 7 12 4 9 15
2020 2 6 10 3 6 11 2 7 12
2021 4 7 14 2 9 17 2 5 14
2022 2 7 15 3 8 12 3 8 19
2023 3 8 12 3 6 11 3 9 16
2024 3 8 18 3 7 15 4 10 16
2025 3 7 13 3 9 12 3 8 15
2026 4 7 15 3 8 14 2 8 16
2027 4 8 17 4 9 14 2 9 18
2028 3 7 16 3 8 14 4 10 14
2029 4 7 14 4 8 16 3 8 17
2030 4 8 12 2 9 18 6 10 14
2031 4 8 17 4 8 18 4 11 23
2032 4 9 16 2 11 16 4 9 16
2033 3 8 20 4 10 22 4 11 19
2034 5 11 18 3 12 16 4 10 21
2035 5 9 16 7 12 18 4 12 18
2036 2 9 15 3 9 14 6 11 21
2037 4 8 15 2 9 16 5 10 22
2038 5 10 17 6 11 20 7 17 23
2039 4 9 18 3 9 17 5 11 17
2040 3 8 14 4 7 19 4 11 19
2041 4 9 19 6 11 20 8 13 24
2042 5 10 17 5 13 20 4 11 20
2043 4 7 15 4 11 18 6 12 26
2044 3 8 18 3 10 18 5 11 18
2045 4 7 18 4 12 22 6 12 21
2046 4 8 18 5 11 20 5 14 22
2047 3 8 20 4 12 22 10 16 24
2048 4 11 17 7 14 21 7 16 24
2049 2 9 17 4 10 21 8 15 24
2050 4 9 20 4 12 21 8 15 30
2051 3 10 20 5 13 26 7 17 29
2052 5 9 14 6 11 23 8 16 25
2053 5 10 18 5 13 24 8 21 32
2054 2 8 20 6 11 21 10 17 28
2055 3 10 17 3 12 21 6 18 28
2056 4 9 23 5 12 22 8 18 26
2057 3 8 16 3 12 19 7 21 31
2058 4 10 16 4 13 28 12 22 33
2059 4 9 19 6 13 27 10 23 29
2060 3 11 20 7 15 21 7 18 36
2061 4 10 14 6 15 22 12 20 37
2062 4 10 21 8 13 24 8 24 32
2063 3 8 18 8 16 23 12 25 35
2064 5 9 19 6 16 29 13 23 40
2065 3 11 18 7 16 26 17 30 37
2066 4 9 19 5 12 25 10 27 45
2067 3 9 19 7 15 26 17 33 40
2068 5 10 20 7 17 31 14 27 45
2069 2 10 16 8 17 27 14 29 39
2070 3 9 16 8 16 25 12 23 35
2071 3 8 19 9 16 24 14 27 43
2072 3 9 14 6 15 25 14 29 48
2073 4 12 19 9 15 32 12 28 49
2074 5 7 15 7 14 34 12 30 49
2075 2 9 18 4 20 31 16 29 48
2076 4 11 20 7 18 25 19 27 44
2077 3 10 15 4 16 26 15 31 50
2078 3 8 18 7 18 33 19 34 51
2079 4 11 21 5 18 34 18 31 48
2080 4 8 19 6 18 27 12 37 47
2081 4 10 16 6 17 25 23 33 48
2082 4 9 14 9 17 34 20 37 55
2083 5 8 18 7 16 29 16 33 53
2084 3 9 17 8 17 27 17 31 46
2085 3 7 15 9 18 35 22 38 55
2086 5 11 21 9 17 25 17 36 57
2087 3 9 21 7 16 31 13 41 59
2088 5 8 16 6 14 28 22 39 57
2089 3 8 23 8 16 34 18 42 60
2090 4 9 19 8 16 33 20 41 61
2091 3 9 18 10 16 30 21 41 61
2092 3 8 15 6 16 32 23 45 62
2093 5 8 19 9 17 37 25 48 66
2094 3 7 18 8 18 37 22 41 65
2095 4 8 14 7 18 37 24 47 60
2096 4 9 17 7 17 35 19 42 65
2097 3 8 21 9 16 26 17 44 72
2098 5 11 18 7 16 30 21 46 66
2099 4 9 14 7 17 35 20 46 70
2100 4 7 13 5 16 29 24 46 71
Extreme Rainfall
Low Emissions Scenario Medium emissions scenario High emissions scenario
Year Low Median High Low Median High Low Median High
2010 109 111 114 109 111 113 109 112 113
2020 111 113 118 111 115 119 111 116 121
2030 113 115 121 114 118 124 114 121 126
2040 112 118 124 116 120 129 119 126 134
2050 113 118 128 118 124 135 125 134 144
2060 113 119 129 119 126 140 131 142 158
2070 114 118 128 119 128 144 137 150 170
2080 113 118 127 120 129 144 142 158 184
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Low Emissions Scenario Medium Emissions Scenario High Emissions Scenario
Year Low Median High Low Median High Low Median High
1950 68 80 92 68 80 93 68 80 93
1951 66 80 91 66 80 91 66 80 91
1952 66 78 89 66 78 89 66 78 89
1953 64 78 87 64 78 87 64 78 87
1954 68 81 89 68 81 89 68 82 89
1955 69 76 91 68 76 91 68 76 91
1956 66 78 87 67 76 87 67 76 87
1957 66 80 91 66 80 91 66 80 91
1958 63 76 92 63 77 92 63 77 92
1959 69 82 92 69 81 92 69 81 92
1960 67 80 90 67 80 90 67 80 90
1961 64 77 92 65 77 92 65 77 92
1962 65 78 94 65 79 94 66 79 94
1963 68 82 98 68 82 98 68 82 98
1964 70 82 95 70 81 95 70 81 95
1965 67 76 90 67 76 90 67 75 90
1966 64 81 96 64 81 96 64 81 95
1967 69 81 98 69 81 98 69 81 98
1968 64 77 93 64 77 93 64 77 93
1969 67 78 92 67 78 93 67 78 92
1970 67 80 100 67 80 100 67 80 100
1971 71 79 91 71 79 92 71 79 92
1972 69 82 95 70 83 95 70 83 95
1973 67 79 90 67 79 90 67 79 90
1974 66 77 92 64 76 91 63 76 91
1975 67 77 90 67 77 90 67 77 90
1976 63 77 92 63 77 91 63 77 91
1977 71 84 94 72 84 94 71 84 94
1978 70 77 87 70 78 87 70 78 87
1979 69 82 91 69 81 91 69 81 91
1980 68 75 87 69 75 87 69 76 86
1981 66 78 88 66 78 88 66 78 88
1982 64 76 90 64 77 90 64 76 89
1983 60 77 92 60 77 94 60 76 94
1984 64 80 87 64 79 87 64 80 87
1985 57 73 85 57 73 85 57 72 85
1986 64 77 88 64 77 88 64 77 88
1987 65 77 88 64 77 88 64 76 88
1988 62 75 86 62 75 85 62 75 85
1989 61 77 89 61 77 89 61 77 89
1990 65 76 91 65 76 91 65 76 91
1991 65 75 88 65 76 88 65 75 88
1992 66 75 90 66 74 90 65 75 90
1993 68 77 93 68 78 95 69 78 95
1994 63 77 86 63 78 88 63 77 88
1995 66 76 92 66 76 91 66 75 92
1996 67 76 89 68 76 89 68 76 89
1997 63 78 90 63 77 90 63 77 90
1998 65 74 89 65 74 89 65 74 89
1999 64 79 90 64 79 90 64 79 89
2000 63 77 86 64 77 89 64 77 89
2001 66 75 84 66 75 84 66 75 84
2002 68 79 91 67 79 91 66 79 91
2003 58 75 84 59 75 87 59 75 86
2004 63 74 89 63 74 88 63 74 88
2005 65 79 95 65 78 91 66 78 91
2006 61 71 83 62 76 93 64 75 91
2007 64 79 92 64 78 90 63 75 87
2008 63 76 85 61 77 86 63 77 92
2009 65 78 92 63 78 93 64 77 90
2010 67 75 88 61 71 86 60 72 86
2011 59 72 82 61 79 91 64 75 87
2012 62 76 88 63 75 91 59 74 89
2013 63 75 86 62 78 93 61 75 87
2014 60 73 87 62 73 85 57 68 85
2015 60 73 88 60 73 85 58 71 83
2016 61 71 90 61 72 82 58 73 87
2017 57 70 87 62 74 85 63 73 86
2018 61 77 92 60 71 82 63 75 94
2019 64 75 88 59 71 85 59 74 89
2020 63 72 84 59 73 85 58 70 88
2021 63 74 83 59 73 87 62 70 83
2022 61 72 90 61 75 87 62 71 86
2023 63 75 87 64 73 88 59 70 85
2024 57 71 84 62 75 88 57 72 88
2025 55 70 90 63 74 87 56 70 84
2026 57 72 83 61 75 92 56 72 85
2027 60 75 87 61 70 87 61 69 82
2028 60 75 88 62 72 89 59 69 85
2029 61 75 89 59 69 84 60 74 83
2030 61 75 85 59 70 84 59 73 82
2031 59 73 86 60 69 93 58 67 81
2032 60 74 84 60 72 84 56 70 87
2033 64 76 87 59 72 84 60 70 82
2034 58 70 85 57 69 89 58 69 83
2035 60 73 84 59 72 80 55 75 86
2036 60 72 86 61 74 89 59 71 84
2037 58 72 84 58 72 83 57 71 86
2038 59 74 90 65 77 89 59 72 85
2039 60 72 87 60 71 83 57 71 86
2040 62 73 91 57 69 87 56 65 89
2041 56 71 83 55 72 85 54 69 81
2042 59 68 85 55 69 80 53 65 86
2043 59 70 76 54 70 85 57 69 85
2044 53 72 84 58 71 87 58 70 81
2045 61 74 84 60 74 85 59 66 81
2046 59 72 84 59 71 87 53 66 83
2047 60 72 84 58 69 82 57 67 83
2048 56 72 93 59 69 81 52 67 79
2049 56 71 86 56 73 82 56 68 85
2050 59 72 84 57 71 83 56 68 83
2051 58 76 91 56 66 86 55 66 80
2052 59 70 89 56 70 86 56 66 83
2053 60 73 88 59 70 86 58 73 88
2054 58 76 89 58 70 90 55 67 76
2055 54 71 84 54 73 84 57 68 79
2056 61 75 83 54 72 86 54 70 86
2057 60 73 86 54 69 84 56 66 83
2058 57 72 87 56 69 87 53 65 79
2059 62 72 83 54 69 84 52 67 88
2060 60 74 86 53 69 84 52 68 83
2061 55 71 87 58 73 87 53 67 82
2062 58 69 87 60 72 85 52 65 76
2063 55 72 87 53 69 86 54 66 87
2064 54 72 89 55 74 88 54 66 86
2065 58 73 82 55 71 87 60 69 81
2066 59 74 85 53 70 83 55 71 78
2067 57 69 84 60 72 87 50 63 75
2068 60 75 87 58 73 89 52 70 85
2069 60 71 85 57 69 83 54 65 81
2070 62 75 88 56 67 78 53 68 85
2071 55 72 82 58 70 84 52 66 77
2072 57 72 86 53 68 81 53 66 79
2073 58 73 84 59 69 84 54 66 83
2074 59 68 83 55 64 81 53 66 81
2075 57 70 83 52 68 88 52 64 81
2076 59 70 83 53 69 88 53 67 83
2077 57 74 87 57 68 89 55 63 79
2078 58 71 91 55 68 83 50 63 81
2079 57 71 83 54 70 81 50 66 81
2080 56 74 88 50 66 83 56 66 82
2081 56 69 83 55 64 79 53 65 81
2082 57 72 87 52 69 84 50 66 80
2083 58 70 87 56 70 86 53 68 84
2084 58 70 88 57 74 96 52 65 86
2085 61 70 84 55 65 77 50 63 81
2086 62 77 88 51 68 85 50 64 78
2087 62 72 90 58 71 85 50 59 80
2088 55 71 90 58 70 82 48 66 90
2089 58 75 84 57 67 81 48 64 86
2090 56 75 85 55 69 86 53 69 85
2091 56 73 88 56 69 83 43 64 80
2092 62 75 88 57 72 86 56 67 81
2093 59 73 81 57 71 84 51 63 81
2094 59 73 85 55 67 84 51 65 83
2095 59 72 87 55 67 82 50 64 80
2096 54 68 86 57 70 85 54 65 81
2097 56 72 87 59 68 79 51 66 75
2098 58 72 85 53 67 82 51 63 79
2099 58 73 92 58 71 86 49 64 81
2100 60 76 89 48 67 87 48 63 81
Figure 4-4 Changing climate hazards will raise the cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure in the absence of adaptation Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purposes. Source: FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario 2022-2030 2031-2070 2071-2100 2022-2100
Medium Stable Climate $11.0 $13.4 $12.6 $12.9
No adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs $1.4 $2.4 $2.1 $2.2
High Stable Climate $11.0 $13.4 $12.6 $12.9
No adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs $1.6 $3.1 $6.1 $4.1
Figure 4-5 Uncertainty ranges around annual climate-related costs widen over time Source: FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario Projection 2022-2030 2031-2070 2070-2100
Medium Low $0.8 $1.0 $1.4
Median $1.4 $2.4 $2.1
High $2.1 $3.8 $4.2
High Low $0.9 $2.1 $3.0
Median $1.6 $3.1 $6.1
High $2.3 $5.3 $9.7
Figure 4-6 In the absence of adaptation, climate-related costs accumulate to significant sums by 2100 Source: FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario Projection
Medium Stable Climate NA $1,015
No adaptation - additional climate-related costs Low $89
Median $171
High $298
High Stable Climate NA $1,015
No adaptation - additional climate-related costs Low $180
Median $322
High $522
Figure 5-1 Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure assets have long remaining useful lives Source: FAO. Return to image
Remaining useful life categories Share of transportation assets by CRV (Per Cent)
Beyond useful life 1
0-20 years 3
20-40 years 24
40-60 years 57
60-80 years 5
80-100 years 10
Figure 5-2 Examples of transportation infrastructure adaptations to climate hazards Note: For more examples of how transportation infrastructure components can be adapted to climate hazards, see WSP 2021. Source: WSP. Return to image
Transportation Assets Adaptation
Roads Using a higher temperature grade asphalt binder can help reduce the risk of permanent deformation from extreme heat.
Bridges Deeper foundations will be less vulnerable to extreme rainfall and its anticipated effects of scour and erosion. Added rip rap for foundations in watercourses will increase erosion protection and runoff control.
Large Structural Culverts Larger pipes and structures and associated excavations are needed for increased capacity in anticipation of the peak flow volume of projected extreme rainfalls. Rocks of larger diameters are required for channel protection.
Transit Engineering Adequate tie plates and anchors are required to accommodate the dilatation of rail and increase stability. Increase the use of designed materials that are tolerant to higher operating temperatures in moving components and tracks.
Figure 5-3 The reactive adaptation strategy leaves most public transportation assets vulnerable to changing climate hazards throughout the mid-century. Source: FAO. Return to image
Proportion of adapted public transportation by CRV (per cent)
Year Reactive adaptation Proactive adaptation
2022 9 15
2023 9 20
2024 9 37
2025 9 39
2026 9 42
2027 9 45
2028 9 47
2029 9 48
2030 9 53
2031 9 67
2032 9 70
2033 10 71
2034 10 75
2035 10 84
2036 10 87
2037 10 87
2038 11 92
2039 11 94
2040 12 95
2041 13 96
2042 13 97
2043 13 97
2044 13 97
2045 14 99
2046 14 99
2047 14 99
2048 15 99
2049 18 99
2050 19 99
2051 20 100
2052 23 100
2053 25 100
2054 25 100
2055 25 100
2056 25 100
2057 26 100
2058 27 100
2059 27 100
2060 29 100
2061 39 100
2062 40 100
2063 42 100
2064 43 100
2065 46 100
2066 51 100
2067 53 100
2068 61 100
2069 64 100
2070 66 100
2071 71 100
2072 79 100
2073 81 100
2074 83 100
2075 86 100
2076 86 100
2077 86 100
2078 86 100
2079 86 100
2080 86 100
2081 87 100
2082 87 100
2083 87 100
2084 87 100
2085 87 100
2086 87 100
2087 87 100
2088 87 100
2089 87 100
2090 87 100
2091 87 100
2092 87 100
2093 88 100
2094 88 100
2095 88 100
2096 88 100
2097 88 100
2098 88 100
2099 89 100
2100 90 100
Figure 5-4 Adaptation will raise transportation infrastructure costs, but more so in the high emissions scenario Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose. Source: FAO Return to image
Emissions Scenario 2022-2030 2031-2070 2071-2100 2022-2100
Medium Stable Climate $ 11.0 $ 13.4 $ 12.6 $ 12.9
Reactive adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs $ 1.6 $ 2.4 $ 0.8 $ 1.7
High Stable Climate $ 11.0 $ 13.4 $ 12.6 $ 12.9
Reactive adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs $ 2.1 $ 3.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.9
Figure 5-5 Climate-related costs are subject to climate and engineering uncertainty Source: FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario Projection 2022-2030 2031-2070 2070-2100
Medium Low $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 0.7
Median $ 1.6 $ 2.4 $ 0.8
High $ 2.6 $ 4.0 $ 1.7
High Low $ 1.1 $ 2.2 $ 1.0
Median $ 2.1 $ 3.4 $ 2.5
High $ 3.2 $ 6.2 $ 3.3
Figure 5-6 Cumulative climate-related costs in the reactive adaptation strategy to 2100 Source: FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario Projection
Medium Stable Climate NA $ 1,015
Reactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs Low $ 67
Median $ 135
High $ 235
High Stable Climate NA $ 1,015
Reactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs Low $ 129
Median $ 229
High $ 374
Figure 5-7 Adaptation will raise transportation infrastructure costs, but more so in the high emissions scenario Note: Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose. Source: FAO Return to image
Emissions Scenario 2022-2030 2031-2070 2071-2100 2022-2100
Medium Stable Climate $ 11.0 $ 13.4 $ 12.6 $ 12.9
Proactive adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs $ 2.9 $ 1.4 $ 1.0 $ 1.4
High Stable Climate $ 11.0 $ 13.4 $ 12.6 $ 12.9
Proactive adaptation strategy, additional climate-related costs $ 5.2 $ 2.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.7
Figure 5-8 Climate-related costs are subject to climate and engineering uncertainty Source: FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario Projection 2022-2030 2031-2070 2070-2100
Medium Low $ 1.3 $ 0.7 $ 0.2
Median $ 2.9 $ 1.4 $ 1.0
High $ 5.1 $ 2.7 $ 1.9
High Low $ 2.6 $ 1.5 $ 0.9
Median $ 5.2 $ 2.8 $ 2.0
High $ 9.0 $ 4.9 $ 3.6
Figure 5-9 Cumulative climate-related costs in the proactive adaptation strategy to 2100 Source: FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario Projection
Medium Stable Climate NA $ 1,015
Proactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs Low $ 46
Median $ 110
High $ 210
High Stable Climate NA $ 1,015
Proactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs Low $ 111
Median $ 217
High $ 386
Figure 6-1 Adapting Ontario’s public transportation infrastructure will cost Provincial and municipal governments less than not adapting in a changing climate Note: The costs in this chart are based on the median (or 50th percentile) projection under each emissions scenario and are in addition to the baseline costs over the same period. Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose. Source: FAO. Return to image
Medium emissions scenario High emissions scenario
No adaptation - additional climate-related costs $171 $322
Reactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs $135 $229
Proactive adaptation strategy - additional climate-related costs $110 $217
Figure 6-2 The three asset management strategies have different cost profiles Note: The costs in this chart are based on the median (or 50th percentile) projection under each emissions scenario and are in addition to the baseline costs over the same period. Uncertainty ranges are omitted from this chart for presentation purpose. Source: FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario Strategy 2022 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
High Emissions Scenario Reactive adaptation $5 $19 $43 $61 $96 $154 $172 $194 $229
Proactive adaptation $10 $47 $99 $125 $131 $157 $177 $203 $217
No adaptation $1 $14 $38 $59 $88 $138 $171 $244 $322
Medium Emissions Scenario Reactive adaptation $3 $14 $35 $46 $49 $110 $99 $117 $135
Proactive adaptation $5 $26 $56 $67 $68 $80 $88 $103 $110
No adaptation $1 $12 $33 $47 $50 $107 $107 $140 $171
Figure C-1Roads – Cumulative impact of extreme rainfall and extreme heat Source: FAO. Return to image
In Absence of Adaptation
Useful Service Life
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low -2.4 -3.2 -3.8 -4.2 -4.6 -5.0 -5.2 -5.4 -5.7
Median -4.8 -6.2 -7.7 -9.2 -10.2 -10.8 -11.2 -11.7 -12.1
High -7.9 -10.2 -13.1 -15.3 -18.2 -19.9 -19.0 -18.2 -17.5
High Low -2.5 -3.9 -5.5 -7.5 -9.3 -11.4 -13.2 -15.2 -17.4
Median -5.6 -7.5 -9.9 -13.0 -16.2 -19.9 -23.3 -27.0 -31.1
High -8.0 -10.8 -14.9 -19.6 -25.7 -31.2 -36.9 -43.0 -49.7
Operations & Maintenance
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Median 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
High 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
High Low 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0
Median 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5
High 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3
Adaptation Costs
Retrofit Costs
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7
Median 4.1 5.2 6.5 7.7 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.2
High 7.3 9.5 12.1 14.2 16.8 18.3 17.7 17.0 16.4
High Low 2.1 3.2 4.5 6.1 7.6 9.4 10.9 12.5 14.2
Median 4.7 6.3 8.3 10.9 13.6 16.6 19.5 22.5 25.9
High 7.5 10.0 13.8 18.1 23.7 28.8 34.0 39.7 45.8
Renewal Costs
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3
Median 3.8 4.8 6.0 7.1 7.9 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4
High 6.8 8.8 11.2 13.1 15.5 16.9 16.3 15.7 15.1
High Low 1.9 2.9 4.1 5.6 6.9 8.5 9.8 11.3 12.9
Median 4.4 5.8 7.6 10.0 12.5 15.3 17.9 20.8 23.8
High 6.9 9.2 12.7 16.7 21.9 26.6 31.4 36.6 42.3
Figure C-2Bridges – Cumulative impact of extreme rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles Source: FAO. Return to image
In Absence of Adaptation
Useful Service Life
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 3.3 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.4 6.5 7.7 8.9 9.9
Median -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6
High -3.0 -3.7 -4.7 -5.6 -6.5 -7.0 -6.9 -6.7 -6.5
High Low 3.7 4.9 6.3 7.5 8.5 10.9 12.9 14.6 16.0
Median -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -2.1 -2.6
High -3.0 -3.9 -5.4 -6.9 -9.0 -10.8 -12.8 -14.9 -17.2
Operations & Maintenance
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Median 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
High 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
High Low 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Median 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3
High 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8
Adaptation Costs
Retrofit Costs
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
Median 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1
High 2.4 3.0 3.8 4.5 5.3 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4
High Low 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.6
Median 1.5 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.6 7.5
High 2.4 3.2 4.4 5.7 7.5 9.0 10.6 12.4 14.3
Renewal Costs
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Median 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8
High 3.8 4.8 6.0 7.1 8.4 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.5
High Low 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7
Median 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.9 6.7
High 3.9 5.1 7.0 9.0 11.8 14.2 16.9 19.7 22.7
Figure C-3Large structural culverts – Impact of extreme rainfall Source: FAO. Return to image
In Absence of Adaptation
Useful Service Life
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low -2.7 -3.7 -4.5 -4.8 -5.1 -5.4 -5.8 -6.2 -6.6
Median -5.3 -6.7 -8.4 -9.8 -10.7 -11.3 -11.9 -12.5 -13.1
High -9.8 -12.6 -15.7 -18.6 -21.8 -23.8 -23.2 -22.7 -22.2
High Low -2.9 -4.1 -5.6 -7.6 -9.5 -11.4 -13.0 -14.6 -16.3
Median -6.2 -8.0 -10.3 -13.3 -16.6 -20.4 -23.9 -27.5 -31.3
High -10.0 -13.2 -18.1 -23.5 -30.8 -37.0 -43.9 -51.2 -59.0
Operations & Maintenance
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Median 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
High 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3
High Low 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Median 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5
High 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.6
Adaptation Costs
Retrofit Costs
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 5.8 7.7 9.4 10.2 10.8 11.5 12.3 13.1 13.9
Median 10.0 12.6 15.7 18.3 20.2 21.3 22.4 23.5 24.6
High 16.7 21.3 26.7 31.6 37.0 40.3 39.4 38.5 37.6
High Low 6.1 8.7 11.8 16.1 20.1 24.0 27.4 30.8 34.4
Median 11.6 15.0 19.4 25.0 31.2 38.3 44.9 51.7 58.9
High 17.0 22.4 30.8 39.9 52.2 62.9 74.5 86.9 100.2
Renewal Costs
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 2.3 3.1 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.5
Median 4.3 5.4 6.7 7.8 8.6 9.1 9.5 10.0 10.5
High 7.7 9.9 12.4 14.7 17.2 18.7 18.3 17.9 17.5
High Low 2.4 3.4 4.7 6.4 7.9 9.5 10.8 12.2 13.6
Median 4.9 6.4 8.3 10.6 13.3 16.3 19.1 22.0 25.1
High 7.9 10.4 14.3 18.5 24.2 29.2 34.6 40.4 46.5
Figure C-4Transit engineering – Impact of extreme rainfall Source: FAO. Return to image
In Absence of Adaptation
In Absence of Adaptation
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9
Median -1.1 -1.4 -1.8 -2.2 -2.5 -2.6 -2.7 -2.7 -2.8
High -1.6 -2.2 -3.0 -3.4 -4.1 -4.5 -4.1 -3.8 -3.5
High Low -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -1.8 -2.4 -2.8 -3.3 -3.9
Median -1.3 -1.8 -2.4 -3.3 -4.1 -5.0 -5.8 -6.8 -7.9
High -1.7 -2.3 -3.2 -4.4 -5.8 -7.2 -8.4 -9.8 -11.4
Operations & Maintenance
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Median 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
High 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
High Low 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5
Median 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2
High 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
Adaptation Costs
Retrofit Costs
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9
Median 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.9 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.4
High 3.1 4.1 5.6 6.3 7.7 8.5 7.8 7.2 6.6
High Low 1.3 2.4 3.5 4.8 5.9 7.6 9.0 10.7 12.6
Median 2.9 4.0 5.4 7.4 9.2 11.3 13.2 15.4 18.0
High 3.2 4.4 6.1 8.3 10.9 13.5 15.8 18.4 21.4
Renewal Costs
Emissions Scenario 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s
Medium Low 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Median 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
High 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.0
High Low 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6
Median 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.6 5.4 6.2
High 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.9 6.1 7.1 8.3 9.6
Figure D-1 More intense rainfall and extreme heat will contribute to the decline in USL of public roads Source: FAO. Return to image
Medium Emissions Scenario High Emissions Scenario
Extreme rainfall Extreme heat Cumulative Extreme rainfall Extreme heat Cumulative
2020s -3.0 -1.8 -4.8 -3.5 -2.1 -5.6
2030s -3.8 -2.4 -6.2 -4.6 -2.9 -7.5
2040s -4.8 -3.0 -7.7 -5.9 -4.0 -9.9
2050s -5.6 -3.6 -9.2 -7.6 -5.4 -13.0
2060s -6.1 -4.1 -10.2 -9.5 -6.8 -16.2
2070s -6.5 -4.3 -10.8 -11.6 -8.3 -19.9
2080s -6.8 -4.4 -11.2 -13.6 -9.7 -23.3
2090s -7.1 -4.6 -11.7 -15.7 -11.3 -27.0
2100s -7.5 -4.7 -12.1 -17.9 -13.2 -31.1
Figure D-2 More intense rainfall and extreme heat will contribute to the increase in O&M of public roads Source: FAO. Return to image
Medium Emissions Scenario High Emissions Scenario
Extreme rainfall Extreme heat Cumulative Extreme rainfall Extreme heat Cumulative
2020s 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3
2030s 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4
2040s 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5
2050s 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6
2060s 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8
2070s 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9
2080s 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.1
2090s 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.3
2100s 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.5
Figure D-3 More intense rainfall will contribute the most to the decline in USL of public bridges, significantly offset by the decline in freeze-thaw cycles Source: FAO. Return to image
Medium Emissions Scenario High Emissions Scenario
Extreme rainfall Extreme heat Cumulative Extreme rainfall Extreme heat Cumulative
2020s -1.5 0.8 -0.7 -1.7 1.0 -0.7
2030s -1.9 1.2 -0.7 -2.2 1.5 -0.7
2040s -2.3 1.6 -0.8 -2.9 2.0 -0.9
2050s -2.7 1.8 -0.9 -3.7 2.7 -1.0
2060s -3.0 2.1 -0.9 -4.6 3.5 -1.1
2070s -3.2 2.4 -0.8 -5.7 4.3 -1.4
2080s -3.3 2.6 -0.7 -6.7 5.0 -1.7
2090s -3.5 2.9 -0.6 -7.7 5.6 -2.1
2100s -3.7 3.1 -0.6 -8.8 6.2 -2.6
Figure E-1The present value cost of each asset management strategy under different discount rates Source: FAO. Return to image
Interest Rate Medium Emissions Scenario High Emissions Scenario
No adaptation Reactive adaptation Proactive adaptation No adaptation Reactive adaptation Proactive adaptation
0.0% $171 $135 $110 $322 $229 $217
0.5% $139 $113 $96 $253 $189 $188
1.0% $115 $97 $85 $202 $158 $166
1.5% $96 $83 $76 $164 $133 $148
2.0% $82 $72 $69 $134 $114 $133
2.5% $70 $64 $63 $112 $99 $121
3.0% $61 $56 $58 $94 $86 $111
3.5% $53 $50 $54 $80 $76 $103
4.0% $47 $45 $51 $69 $67 $96
4.5% $42 $41 $48 $60 $60 $90
5.0% $38 $38 $45 $53 $54 $85
5.5% $34 $34 $43 $47 $50 $81
6.0% $31 $32 $41 $42 $45 $77
6.5% $29 $30 $39 $38 $42 $73
7.0% $27 $28 $38 $35 $39 $70
Figure F-1 The cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public transportation infrastructure will increase by $116 billion in the low emissions scenario in the absence of adaptation Source: WSP and FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario 2022 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Low Low $0 $6 $14 $9 $16 $25 $31 $39 $45
Median $1 $12 $30 $40 $38 $79 $74 $91 $116
High $1 $17 $44 $63 $68 $135 $133 $165 $193
Medium Low $0 $7 $18 $21 $23 $48 $49 $69 $89
Median $1 $12 $33 $47 $50 $107 $107 $140 $171
High $1 $19 $49 $80 $119 $173 $191 $253 $298
High Low $0 $8 $20 $35 $36 $91 $86 $135 $180
Median $1 $14 $38 $59 $88 $138 $171 $244 $322
High $1 $21 $51 $90 $143 $232 $268 $390 $522
Figure F-2A reactive adaptation strategy, where assets are adapted at the end of their service life to withstand the impacts of climate hazards, will add $93 billion in infrastructure costs over the century in the low emissions scenario Source: WSP and FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario 2022 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Low Low $1 $7 $14 $9 $14 $24 $31 $36 $38
Median $2 $12 $30 $37 $36 $77 $70 $76 $93
High $3 $19 $46 $61 $67 $140 $124 $145 $169
Medium Low $1 $8 $19 $18 $22 $46 $47 $50 $67
Median $3 $14 $35 $46 $49 $110 $99 $117 $135
High $5 $23 $53 $79 $125 $185 $185 $208 $235
High Low $3 $10 $22 $35 $38 $98 $84 $101 $129
Median $5 $19 $43 $61 $96 $154 $172 $194 $229
High $9 $29 $61 $98 $163 $276 $263 $314 $374
Figure F-3A proactive adaptation strategy, where assets are adapted at the earliest opportunity to withstand the impacts of climate hazards, will add $64 billion in infrastructure costs over the century in the low emissions scenario Source: WSP and FAO. Return to image
Emissions Scenario 2022 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Low Low $1 $7 $10 $15 $18 $23 $21 $25 $27
Median $3 $17 $36 $43 $40 $47 $51 $60 $64
High $6 $31 $66 $83 $81 $97 $107 $122 $131
Medium Low $2 $11 $20 $27 $32 $39 $40 $42 $46
Median $5 $26 $56 $67 $68 $80 $88 $103 $110
High $9 $46 $98 $123 $126 $153 $172 $193 $210
High Low $5 $24 $46 $60 $73 $83 $94 $100 $111
Median $10 $47 $99 $125 $131 $157 $177 $203 $217
High $17 $81 $167 $212 $228 $278 $319 $355 $386

Footnotes

[1] Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2020.

[2] Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021a.

[3] Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021b.

[4] WSP, 2021.

[5] Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021c.

[6] CRV is the current cost of rebuilding an asset with the equivalent capacity, functionality and performance. The CRV of roads owned and managed by the Province and Ontario’s municipalities was revised to reflect updated cost estimates contained in the Ontario Ministry of Transportation’s Parametric Estimating Guide (2021). See Appendix A for details.

[7] For details on the scope of infrastructure covered in the CIPI project, see Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021b.

[8] For detailed information about the assets covered in this report, see Appendix A.

[9] From Ontario Ministry of Transportation’s Parametric Estimating Guide (2021), Page 8: “…reconstruction can include removal of existing full pavement structure, re-compaction of the subgrade, and complete replacement of the pavement structure. It is performed substantially along the existing alignment and will normally result in improvements to the geometrics of a road.”

[10] The scope of this report does not include private transportation infrastructure (such as Highway 407 or the Ambassador Bridge), machinery and equipment (such as buses or rail cars) or Federal transportation assets (such as ports).

[11] Rehabilitation means repairing part or most of an asset to extend its service life, without adding to its capacity, functionality or performance. Rehabilitation is different from maintenance, which is the routine activities performed on an asset that maximize service life and minimize service disruptions. Assets are rehabilitated to a benchmarked “state of good repair” target and not to a new condition. For more information on the asset management framework used in this report see: Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021b.

[12] Renewal is the replacement of an existing asset, resulting in a new or as-new asset with an equivalent capacity, functionality and performance as the original asset. Renewal is different from rehabilitation, as renewal rebuilds the entire asset.

[13] For details, see: Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2020 and Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021a.

[14] This report only examines the existing suite of public transportation infrastructure; it excludes assets that are currently under construction, planned for future construction or necessary to meet future infrastructure demand.

[15] The cost estimates presented throughout this report do not incorporate new technologies or practices that may be used or required of asset managers in the future.

[16] In this report, a “stable climate” means that all climate indicators for extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles remain unchanged from their 1975-2005 average levels over the projection to 2100.

[17] In addition, the projection does not incorporate any functionality improvements to existing public infrastructure in the future.

[18] See Warren, F. and Lulham, N., editors, 2021, Section 6.4 for examples.

[19] Numerous potentially significant climate hazards such as wildfires and fluvial flooding were not included. See Financial Accountability Office, 2021b and WSP, 2021 for more information. Scientific confidence in climate projections differ by variable. In general, temperature projections have high scientific confidence due to a large body of evidence on the causes of observed changes and a strong understanding of the climate processes involved. Precipitation projections have medium scientific confidence due to inadequate observations for some historical variables and uncertainty associated with a weaker observed effect of global warming on precipitation. Other climate variables such as wind pressures and snow load have low scientific confidence due to a limited understanding of the climate processes involved. For more information, see Cannon, A.J., Jeong, D.I., Zhang, X., and Zwiers, F.W., 2020.

[20] See Canadian Standards Association, 2014, Annex A3.1, for a Table of historical climatic and environmental data used in the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code.

[21] While freeze-thaw cycles are projected to decrease in most regions of Ontario in most emissions scenarios, freeze-thaw cycles in some northern regions are projected to increase in some scenarios.

[22] This material is drawn from WSP, 2021.

[23] See Appendix B for a detailed description of the climate hazards and their projections.

[24] Bridge superstructure and substructure are mostly protected by the bridge deck and are not directly exposed to FTCs, while the layer below the asphalt pavement on bridges are typically constructed from impervious material which will not be impacted by FTCs.

[25] See Section 3.3.4 and Figure 1 in Chinowsky, P., Helman, J., Gulati, S., Neumann, J., & Martinich, J., 2019, for the relationship between buckling probability and temperature.

[26] See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013, Table “All.7.5”, for projections of global mean surface temperature change. Ranges for the global mean surface temperature represent the 5th percentile to the 95th percentile projections of models used.

[27] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth comprehensive assessment (AR5), released in 2013, produced four scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The low emissions scenario corresponds to RCP2.6, the medium emissions scenario corresponds to RCP4.5 and the high emissions scenario corresponds to RCP8.5. See the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report. The IPCC’s sixth assessment (AR6), released in 2021, contains five updated scenarios called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which line up with the RCPs from AR5 in terms of average warming. This means that the RCP scenarios from AR5 are still relevant.

[28] See Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, 2021 for a comparison of the high emissions scenario to historical emissions.

[29] See Footnote 19.

[30] The $13.3 billion in cumulative climate-related costs by 2030 is the average of the medium and high emissions scenarios’ median projections. This cost could range from $7 billion to $20 billion given the climate and engineering uncertainties.

[31] As FTCs are mostly declining, the FAO assumes that adaptation actions are not undertaken to address this climate hazard.

[32] See Infrastructure Canada’s Climate Lens for a general guidance on different factors to consider when making adaptation decisions.

[33] While the climate data underlying current versions of highway bridge design code is based on historical observations (see Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code Annex A3.1), numerous efforts are underway to integrate climate change considerations into the management of transportation infrastructure. For example, at the federal level, the Climate-Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure Initiative has supported the development of forward-looking climate data for the purposes of updating the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code.

[34] For example, the Ontario Ministry of Transportation issued a policy in 2016 on the use of future rainfall predictions for the design of highway infrastructure. For more information, see Ontario Ministry of Transportation, 2017.

[35] See Warren, F. and Lemmen, D.S., editors, 2014, Chapter 1, Page 9 for more examples of adaptation options in the transportation sector.

[36] Ibid.

[37] Thermosyphons are devices that transfer air to cool permafrost and reduce permafrost thaw. See Transport Canada, 2021, for a description of the project by the Government of Yukon.

[38] For example, see Asset Management BC’s Climate Change and Asset Management: A Sustainable Service Delivery Primer.

[39] Adaptation costs for large structural culverts also reflect the cost to increase culvert capacity to handle increased flow from more extreme rainfall.

[40] For a full description of adaptation examples, see WSP, 2021.

[41] The 2080s are selected to approximate the changes in climate in the latter half of the 21st century. The decadal adaptation costs are presented in Appendix C. However, in practice, assets can be adapted to the projected climate over the service life of individual assets. In the FAO’s modelling framework, the cumulative portfolio-wide adaption costs do not materially change when assets are adapted to withstand climate projections over their remaining service life.

[42] Assets are only adapted to climate hazards that are projected to drive damage costs in the absence of adaptation. For example, a reduction in freeze-thaw cycles will extend the useful service life and reduce the O&M expense of certain assets. However, it is assumed to be unlikely that design standards will ease in response. For details, see Page viii WSP, 2021.

[43] Although no additional damage costs are incurred after an asset is adapted, its CRV increases to reflect the addition of climate hazard–resilient components, increasing the expenses associated with maintaining adapted assets in a state of good repair.

[44] A retrofit is an adaptation made during the asset’s service life.

[45] These costs could range from $8 billion to $23 billion in the medium emissions scenario and from $10 billion to $29 billion in the high emissions scenario given the climate and engineering uncertainties.

[46] These costs could range from $11 billion to $46 billion in the medium emissions scenario and from $24 billion to $81 billion in the high emissions scenario given the climate and engineering uncertainties.

[47] For discussions on the value of indirect benefits of adaptation and the indirect costs of service disruption in the context of transportation infrastructure, see Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, 2020, UNEP, 2021 and Neumann, J.E., Chinowsky, P., Helman, J.et al., 2021.

[48] Ness, R., Clark, D. G., Bourque, J., Coffman, D., and Beugin, D., 2021. Page 47.

[49] For example, within the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, the estimated annual costs of traffic congestion to the economy in the absence of climate change considerations was $3.3 billion in 2006, forecast to increase to $7.8 billion per year by 2031. See Costs of Road Congestion in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area: Impact and Cost Benefit Analysis of the Metrolinx Draft Regional Transportation Plan.

[50] Warren, F. and Lulham, N., editors, 2021, Section 3.5.

[51] Several decision-making tools can be used to assist climate change adaptation decisions that captures both financial and economic costs and benefits of adaptation. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014 and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2011 for details on different decision tools, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2018 for a general discussion on costs and benefits of adaptation, and Government of Canada, 2019 for a general guidance on adaptation decisions.

[52] See WSP, 2021.

[53] Some of these cost relationships were subsequently revised to align with the professional judgement of external reviewers.

[54] Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021b.

[55] Most of Ontario’s public infrastructure is located in the southern regions. The weighted-average results presented in Appendix C largely reflect the climate projections for those regions.

[56] For more discussion on discounting, see Bush, E. and Lemmen, D.S., editors, 2019.

[57] For more information, see Drupp, M., Freeman, M., Groom, B. and Nesje, F., 2015.

[58] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013, Table All.7.5. Ranges for the global mean surface temperature represent the 5th percentile to the 95th percentile projections of models used.

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