FAO RELEASES ONTARIO ECONOMIC MONITOR
TORONTO, August 14, 2024 – Today, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) released a report which provides an overview of the latest trends in the Ontario economy from January to June 2024.
Ontario’s economic activity measured by real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 0.7% in the first quarter of 2024 with widespread gains across most spending categories. The solid rise in real GDP followed several quarters of weak growth.
The latest economic indicators suggest that Ontario’s economy improved modestly in the first quarter of 2024, with gains in employment, retail sales, housing market activity and exports. However, business activity softened, as manufacturing sales and wholesale trade both declined slightly.
The latest economic indicators suggest mixed results for Ontario’s economy in the second quarter of 2024, with gains in employment and wholesale trade, but weakness in retail sales, housing market activity, manufacturing sales and net exports.
The solid growth in the first quarter of 2024, combined with the mixed results in the second quarter, suggest that there is modest upside risk to the FAO’s latest forecast for real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2024. Recent economic developments are broadly consistent with the FAO’s outlook for nominal GDP growth of 4.3% in 2024.
To learn more, read the full report here.
Quick Facts:
- The solid 0.7% real GDP growth recorded in 2024 Q1 was a divergence from the weakness largely observed since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates in March 2022, which increased financing costs for households and businesses, slowing economic activity.
- Employment increased by 80,900 jobs in 2024 Q2 after several quarters of weakness, with job gains in both full-time employment (+46,900) and part-time employment (+33,900).
- Ontario’s unemployment rate has increased for five consecutive quarters, reaching 6.8% in 2024 Q2. The youth (aged 15 to 24) unemployment rate reached 15.6% in 2024 Q2, the highest since late 2013 (excluding the pandemic).
- Ontario’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate was 2.9% in 2024 Q2, up from 2.6% in 2024 Q1 – this marked the first time since early 2021 that the province’s inflation rate was below 3.0% for two consecutive quarters.
About the FAO:
Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.
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For further information, please contact:
Sophia Zhu | 416 931 5498 | SZhu@fao-on.org | fao-on.org