TORONTO, January 28, 2026 – Today, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) released a report that reviews the Government of Ontario’s (the Province’s) 10‑year infrastructure spending plan (the capital plan) in the 2025 Ontario Budget.
The 2025 capital plan in the 2025 Ontario Budget is a 10‑year spending projection for infrastructure that is owned and controlled by the Province, and for other entities that receive funding from the Province.
The 2025 capital plan totals $223.1 billion over the 10‑year period from 2025‑26 to 2034‑35. By sector, health accounts for the largest share of the capital plan at $61.1 billion (27 per cent), followed by transit ($60.7 billion, 27 per cent), provincial highways and other transportation ($31.3 billion, 14 per cent), education ($30.1 billion, 13 per cent), ‘other’ ($28.2 billion, 13 per cent), postsecondary education ($5.1 billion, two per cent), justice ($4.3 billion, two per cent), and social ($2.4 billion, one per cent).
The FAO adjusted the 2025 capital plan from nominal to real dollars to better compare capital plan trends over time. After adjusting for inflation, the FAO estimates that the Province’s 2025 capital plan of $223.1 billion in nominal terms becomes $203.4 billion in real 2025 dollars. Of this amount, $93.2 billion (46 per cent) is expected to be spent over the first three years of the 2025 capital plan, with the remaining $110.1 billion (54 per cent) expected to be spent over the last seven years. On an average annual basis, spending is expected to average $31.1 billion per year over the first three years and $15.7 billion per year over the last seven years. Average annual spending declines over the last seven years as projects have either yet to be identified or have yet to be included at their full estimated costs given that they are in the early stages of planning and development.
Compared to the Province’s 10‑year 2019 capital plan, the 2025 capital plan is $30.9 billion (17.9 per cent) higher in real dollars. By sector, real planned 10‑year spending in the 2025 capital plan compared to the 2019 capital plan is higher in health ($23.6 billion, 75 per cent), ‘other’ ($12.1 billion, 87 per cent), education ($6.3 billion, 31 per cent), provincial highways and other transportation ($2.9 billion, 11 per cent) and postsecondary education ($1.2 billion, 35 per cent). Conversely, real planned 10‑year spending in the 2025 capital plan compared to the 2019 capital plan is lower for transit (‑$13.5 billion, ‑20 per cent), justice (‑$1.3 billion, ‑25 per cent) and social (‑$0.4 billion, ‑15 per cent).
Finally, the FAO estimates that the 2025 capital plan of $203.4 billion (in real dollars) over the 10‑year period from 2025‑26 to 2034‑35 is a total of $1.6 billion (‑0.8 per cent) lower than the $205.0 billion in actual real capital spending over the last 10 years, from 2015‑16 to 2024‑25. By sector, health ($17.7 billion, 47 per cent), ‘other’ ($7.1 billion, 37 per cent) and justice ($0.8 billion, 25 per cent) are projected to have higher real spending over the next 10 years compared to actual spending over the last 10 years, while transit (‑$11.4 billion, ‑17 per cent), provincial highways and other transportation (‑$6.0 billion, ‑18 per cent), postsecondary education (‑$5.0 billion, ‑52 per cent), social (‑$3.4 billion, ‑60 per cent) and education (‑$1.4 billion, ‑5 per cent), are projected to have lower spending.
For more information, read the report here.
Quick Facts:
- Of the $223.1 billion 2025 capital plan (in nominal dollars):
- The Province plans to contribute $184.6 billion (83 per cent), the federal and municipal governments are expected to contribute $16.3 billion (seven per cent), and third parties (primarily colleges, hospitals and schools) are expected to contribute $22.2 billion (10 per cent) from their own sources, such as fees and donations.
- $191.1 billion (86 per cent) is for investments in capital assets (infrastructure that is owned or controlled by the Province, such as hospitals, colleges, schools and highways) and $31.9 billion (14 per cent) is for capital expenses (largely transfer payments to outside entities not owned or controlled by the Province, such as municipalities, long‑term care homes and universities).
- The FAO estimates that $128.2 billion (57 per cent) is allocated for expansion (building new assets or expanding existing ones) and $94.9 billion (43 per cent) is allocated for the renewal and modernization of existing assets.
About the FAO:
Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.
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For further information, please contact:
Sophia Zhu l 416 931 5498 l SZhu@fao‑on.org l fao‑on.org