FAO RELEASES ONTARIO ECONOMIC MONITOR
TORONTO, June 11, 2025 – Today, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) released a report which provides an overview of the latest trends in the Ontario economy from October 2024 to March 2025.
Ontario’s economic activity measured by real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by a solid 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024, led by gains in household spending, international exports and residential investment, partially offset by a reduction in inventories.
The latest economic indicators suggest mostly positive results for Ontario’s economy in the first quarter of 2025, with gains in employment, retail and wholesale trade, manufacturing sales, and exports. However, housing market activity showed significant weakness, with both home resales and housing starts sharply lower.
In an April 2025 report, which reviewed the potential impacts of US tariffs on Ontario’s economy, the FAO estimated that Ontario’s annual real GDP growth would slow to 0.6% in 2025. Economic indicators for 2025 Q1 are largely consistent with that projection; however, subsequent tariff changes are expected to have both positive and negative impacts. The FAO will continue to monitor Ontario’s economic performance and will update its forecast for economic growth in its next Economic and Budget Outlook report.
To learn more, read the full report here.
Quick Facts:
- Employment in Ontario rose by 59,200 (or 0.7%) in 2025 Q1, following modest job gains in 2024 Q4 (5,800, or 0.1%).
- Ontario’s unemployment rate rose for the eighth consecutive quarter, reaching 7.5% in 2025 Q1, the highest since mid-2014, excluding the pandemic.
- The CPI inflation rate in Ontario was 2.2% in 2025 Q1, with shelter (3.9%), health and personal care (3.2%) and transportation (3.0%) having higher inflation rates than the headline CPI.
- Manufacturing sales (+2.8%), international exports (+8.5%) and imports (+3.8%) saw strong increases in 2025 Q1 ahead of US tariffs.
- Housing starts in 2025 Q1 totalled 12,700 units in Ontario, a 20.2% drop from the 15,900 units started in 2024 Q4, marking the lowest level of housing starts since 2009 Q4.
About the FAO:
Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.
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For further information, please contact:
Sophia Zhu | 416 931 5498 | SZhu@fao-on.org | fao-on.org