Publications

All FAO research and analysis is published on our website for the benefit of the Ontario Legislature and the public. 

Reports 

The FAO produces regular reports analyzing the state of the Province's finances, trends in the provincial economy and estimates of the financial impact of bills or other proposals over which the Legislature has jurisdiction.

  • Oct 16, 2018

    This report estimates the budgetary impact to the Province from ending the cap and trade program. The report also compares the financial impact on households and businesses of Ontario’s now cancelled cap and trade program against the federal government’s proposed carbon pricing plan.

  • Jul 24, 2018

    The FAO’s 2017-18 annual report summarizes the FAO’s activities in support of all members of the Legislative Assembly undertaken during the 2017-18 fiscal year.

  • May 2, 2018

    This report provides the FAO’s assessment of the province’s medium-term economic performance and fiscal position, and the reasonableness and risks associated with the government’s fiscal recovery plan.


Commentaries 

The FAO posts commentaries on major economic and fiscal developments, providing insights into the broader implications for the Ontario economy and the Ontario government's fiscal plan.

  • Sep 18, 2018

    Ontario’s debt is rated by four principal international credit rating agencies, based on their assessments of the province’s economic and financial outlook and future risks. These credit ratings represent the agencies’ opinions on the ability of Ontario to meet its debt-related financial obligations. This backgrounder provides an update on Ontario’s credit rating.

  • Jul 25, 2018

    Employee wages and salaries are a major expense category for the Ontario government. This commentary reviews past and current trends in public sector employment and wages, as well as recent developments in Ontario’s labour market, to assess the potential implications for the government’s compensation expense going forward.

  • Feb 14, 2018

    Ontario posted a strong job gain of 128,400 net new jobs in 2017, as the unemployment rate declined to 6.0 per cent. Looking behind the strong headline results reveals a changing labour market with both improvements for some workers, as well as continuing challenges for others.


Backgrounders

FAO backgrounders provide primarily descriptive information on issues of interest to Members of Provincial Parliament. Backgrounders are based on information that the FAO has received from the Province.

  • Mar 6, 2018

    This backgrounder includes a list of 2017-18 service fee rate changes, a discussion of the growth rate of service fee revenue, and a review of the cost recovery ratios for a selection of service fee categories.

  • Aug 30, 2016

    Ontario’s debt is rated by four principal international credit rating agencies, which typically publish an annual update of their view of the province’s finances and the quality of Ontario’s debt. 
    Following the tabling of Ontario’s 2016 Budget, each of the four rating agencies affirmed their current rating of Ontario’s debt, indicating that they believe the province has taken adequate steps on both revenues and expenditures to achieve its plan to restore fiscal balance by 2017-18.  
    However, if Ontario’s fiscal position deteriorates beyond 2017-18, either through an easing of expenditure restraint or unexpected revenue weakness, the agencies could be expected to lower Ontario’s credit rating, which could lead to higher borrowing costs and a more challenging fiscal position.

  • Jun 7, 2016

    The Province forecasts that it will collect $2.74 billion in service fee revenue in 2016-17. This backgrounder provides a partial list of changes to Provincial service fee rates planned for 2016-17 and includes a discussion of the growth rate of service fee revenue. Service fee revenue has increased by an average of 6.8% a year since 2011-12, largely due to the increase in revenue from vehicle and driver registration fees.