Expenditure Monitor 2019-20: Q3

Publish date: March 4, 2020 ISSN 2562-9883
This report provides information on spending by the Province over the first nine months of the 2019-20 fiscal year (as of December 31, 2019), including changes to the 2019 budget spending plan, actual spending results compared to planned spending and an updated budget deficit projection.
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About this Document

Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

This analysis was prepared by Jacob Kim and Matthew Stephenson, under the direction of Luan Ngo and Jeffrey Novak.

This report has been prepared with the benefit of publicly available information and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.

All dollar amounts are in Canadian, current dollars (i.e., not adjusted for inflation) unless otherwise noted.

© Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2020

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Expenditure Monitor 2019-20: Q3, Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2020.
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Highlights

Introduction

This report provides information on spending by the government of Ontario (the Province) over the first nine months of the 2019-20 fiscal year (as of December 31, 2019). The report:

Changes to the Budget Spending Plan

In the 2019 Ontario Budget, the Province tabled a 2019-20 spending plan of $156.2 billion.[3] As of December 31, 2019, the 2019-20 spending plan has increased by $2.5 billion, for a revised budget spending plan of $158.8 billion.

The increase in the 2019-20 spending plan is the result of:

Table 1Changes to the 2019-20 budget spending plan by sector, $ millions Note: Figures exclude planned spending on assets and $7.2 billion in additional planned spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies, and the legislative offices. Source: FAO analysis of the 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates, the Supplementary Estimates, 2019-20, the 2019 Ontario Budget and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector 2019-20 Budget Supplementary Estimates Budget
Reallocation
Total Budget Changes Revised
2019-20 Budget
Health 59,973 337 62 399 60,372
Education 31,015 64 119 183 31,198
Postsecondary Education and Training 8,143 -2 -2 8,141
Children’s and Social Services 16,857 395 240 635 17,492
Justice 4,814 -1 -1 4,812
Other Programs 22,761 1,871 -556 1,315 24,076
Interest on Debt 12,675 12,675
Total 156,238 2,667 -139 2,528 158,766

The revised 2019-20 health sector budget is $0.4 billion higher than originally planned:

The revised 2019-20 education sector budget is $0.2 billion higher than originally planned:

The revised 2019-20 children’s and social services sector budget is $0.6 billion higher than originally planned:

The revised 2019-20 other programs sector budget is $1.3 billion higher than originally planned:

For information on budget spending plan changes by program, see appendix B, Table 4.

Spending by Budget Sector

Over the first three quarters of the 2019-20 fiscal year, the Province spent $112.4 billion. Overall, this is $1,989 million or 1.7 per cent lower than planned, based on the revised budget of $158.8 billion.[5] This implies that if the “pace” of actual spending compared to planned spending recorded through the first three quarters of 2019-20 continues in the fourth quarter, then there could be significant program savings at year-end (see next section for more analysis).

The remainder of this section reviews the major programs in each sector that are spending above and below plan through the first three quarters of the 2019-20 fiscal year (as of December 31, 2019).

Table 22019-20 actual vs. planned spending by budget sector, as of December 31, 2019, $ millions Note: Figures exclude assets and $7.2 billion in additional planned spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies and the legislative offices. The Province does not actively monitor or control this spending. Source: FAO analysis of the 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates, the Supplementary Estimates, 2019-20, the 2019 Ontario Budget and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector Revised
2019-20 Budget
Planned Spending at end of Q3 Actual Spending at end of Q3 Actual vs Planned at end of Q3 Actual vs Planned
(Per Cent)
Health 60,372 44,159 43,759 -400 -0.9
Education 31,198 22,448 23,024 576 2.6
Postsecondary Education and Training 8,141 5,917 5,698 -219 -3.7
Children’s and Social Services 17,492 13,150 13,021 -129 -1.0
Justice 4,812 3,540 3,513 -27 -0.8
Other Programs 24,076 15,749 14,632 -1,117 -7.1
Interest on Debt 12,675 9,421 8,748 -673 -7.1
Total 158,766 114,384 112,395 -1,989 -1.7

Health sector spending, at $43.8 billion, was $400 million or 0.9 per cent lower than planned through the first three quarters of the fiscal year.[6]

Education sector spending, at $23.0 billion, was $576 million or 2.6 per cent higher than planned through the first three quarters of the fiscal year.[8]

Postsecondary education and training sector spending, at $5.7 billion, was $219 million or 3.7 per cent lower than planned through the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

Children’s and social services sector spending, at $13.0 billion, was $129 million or 1.0 per cent lower than planned through the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

Justice sector spending, at $3.5 billion, was $27 million or 0.8 per cent lower than planned through the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

Other programs sector spending, at $14.6 billion, was $1,117 million or 7.1 per cent lower than planned through the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

Interest on debt spending, at $8.7 billion, was $673 million or 7.1 per cent lower than planned through the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

Budget Deficit Projection

In the Ministry of Finance’s 2019-20 Third Quarter Finances, the Province projected a budget deficit of $9.0 billion in 2019-20. This budget deficit projection includes a “current outlook” for spending that largely reflects the revised spending budget reviewed in the first section of this report; it does not account for the pace of actual spending through the first three quarters of 2019-20.[11]

As previously discussed, the FAO estimates that actual government spending was 1.7 per cent lower than planned over the first three quarters of the fiscal year. If this pace of actual-to-planned spending continues through the fourth quarter, the FAO expects $2.0 billion in savings (or underspending) by year-end compared to the forecast in the 2019-20 Third Quarter Finances. This spending savings estimate is consistent with historical patterns, which has averaged an even larger $3.3 billion in annual savings over the past 10 years (see appendix A for more information).

In addition, in the Third Quarter Finances, the government maintained a reserve of $1 billion for 2019-20, which is used to “protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen adverse changes in the Province’s revenue and expense” forecasts.[12] Absent further decisions by the Province or changes to the revenue outlook,[13] the $1 billion reserve will not be required.

In summary, based on government decisions and spending patterns up to December 31, 2019, the FAO estimates that spending savings and the unused reserve would combine to reduce the deficit by $3.0 billion compared to the budget deficit projection in the Third Quarter Finances. This results in a 2019-20 budget deficit projection of $6.1 billion, compared to the $9.0 billion deficit projected in the government’s Third Quarter Finances.

Table 3FAO 2019-20 budget deficit projection, as of December 31, 2019 Note: Positive values represent savings and reduce the budget deficit. Negative values represent spending pressures and increase the budget deficit.
$ millions
Surplus / (Deficit) Projection in the 2019-20 Third Quarter Finances (9,018)
FAO Projections Based on Analysis of Provincial Spending
Net Spending Savings 1,963
Spending Pressures
Health -68
Education -850
Spending Savings
Postsecondary Education and Training 251
Children’s and Social Services 174
Justice 39
Electricity Price Mitigation Programs 1,025
All Other Programs 464
Contingency Fund 654
Interest on Debt Savings 276
Savings from Unused Reserve 1,000
Total Projected Savings 2,963
Revised Surplus / (Deficit) Projection (6,055)

Appendices

Appendix A: Average Spending Savings, 2009-10 to 2018-19

The FAO compared the Province’s budgeted spending against actual spending[14] for the last 10 years, from 2009-10 to 2018-19, and found that actual spending was, on average, $3.3 billion lower than budgeted. The savings each year ranged from $6.4 billion in 2010-11 to $0.3 billion in 2017-18. 

Figure 1Average spending savings, 2009-10 to 2018-19, $ billions

Figure 1: Average spending savings, 2009-10 to 2018-19, $ billions

Note: “Budgeted spending” represents total consolidated spending presented in each year’s Expenditure Estimates (Volumes 1 and 2, and Supplementary Estimates, if applicable). “Actual spending” represents total consolidated spending as reported in each year’s Public Accounts of Ontario. The FAO has adjusted some totals to reflect in-year accounting changes so that “budgeted spending” is reported on the same basis as “actual spending.”

Source: FAO analysis of the Public Accounts of Ontario and the Expenditure Estimates.

Appendix B: Spending by Program

As noted in Table 1, as of December 31, 2019, the Province has increased the 2019-20 spending plan by a net $2.5 billion. The net $2.5 billion in changes has been allocated to 43 transfer payment programs and 69 other programs (see Table 4 below). In addition, the table below compares actual spending as of December 31, 2019 against each program’s revised budget.[15] Key findings include:

Table 42019-20 spending and budget changes by program, as of December 31, 2019, $ millions Note: All figures in the table exclude assets and statutory spending. Source: FAO analysis of the 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates, the Supplementary Estimates, 2019-20 and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat. 
Program Name 2019-20
Budget
Change to
Budget
Revised
2019-20
Budget
Actual
Spending
at end of
Q3
Per Cent
of
Revised Budget
Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs
Ontario Wine Fund 5.3 7.7 13.0 11.8 90.9
Small Cidery and Small Distillery Support Program 2.7 2.7 2.6 98.1
Other Program Changes -0.6
Total Change to Ministry Budget 9.8
Ministry of the Attorney General
Legal Aid Ontario 323.3 323.3 253.4 78.4
Other Program Changes -2.8
Total Change to Ministry Budget -2.8
Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services
Ontario Disability Support Program 5,383.2 52.0 5,435.2 4,110.4 75.6
Ontario Works 2,725.1 64.9 2,790.0 2,288.1 82.0
Residential Services 1,685.3 68.6 1,753.9 1,194.4 68.1
Child Protection Services 1,528.5 27.7 1,556.2 1,171.7 75.3
Ontario Child Benefit 1,158.0 1,158.0 821.6 71.0
Ontario Drug Benefit Plan 1,144.1 1,144.1 1,017.8 89.0
Supportive Services 937.3 28.3 965.6 656.9 68.0
Autism 331.5 278.5 610.0 302.8 49.6
Child and Youth Community Supports 190.1 28.1 218.2 147.8 67.7
Supports to Victims of Violence 155.0 6.1 161.1 120.9 75.0
Children’s Treatment and Rehabilitation Services 117.0 4.7 121.7 88.9 73.0
Youth Justice Services 104.4 42.6 146.9 111.8 76.1
Complex Special Needs 104.0 4.1 108.1 91.6 84.7
Healthy Babies Healthy Children 95.5 3.8 99.3 62.8 63.2
Citizenship and Immigration Initiatives 70.2 6.0 76.2 39.2 51.5
Indigenous Community and Prevention Supports 61.2 2.4 63.7 65.7 103.2
Supports to Community Living 56.8 2.1 58.9 36.8 62.5
Youth Initiatives 34.6 14.8 49.3 23.3 47.3
Indigenous Healing and Wellness Strategy 33.4 1.3 34.7 18.0 51.9
Community and Prevention Supports 29.4 1.2 30.6 29.0 94.8
Other Program Changes -1.8
Total Change to Ministry Budget 635.3
Ministry of Education
School Board Operating Grants 17,361.7 63.9 17,425.6 13,175.2 75.6
Child Care and Early Years 1,782.2 121.9 1,904.1 1,421.3 74.6
School Board Capital Grants 1,582.6 1,582.6 889.4 56.2
Other Program Changes -3.1
Total Change to Ministry Budget 182.7
Ministry of Energy, Northern Development and Mines
Electricity Rate Mitigation 2,530.6 2,530.6 2,147.4 84.9
Ontario Rebate for Electricity Consumers 779.4 779.4 458.1 58.8
Rural or Remote Rate Protection Program 238.4 14.0 252.4 161.4 63.9
Ontario Electricity Support Program 214.0 214.0 119.2 55.7
Distribution Rate Protection 205.1 89.3 294.4 155.9 52.9
Northern Ontario Energy Credit 26.0 2.9 28.9 14.7 50.9
On-Reserve First Nations Delivery Credit 19.2 7.0 26.2 13.7 52.3
Aboriginal Economic Development 13.3 16.0 29.3 10.9 37.3
Ontario Electricity Rebate 1,447.0 1,447.0 176.8 12.2
Other Program Changes -16.5
Total Change to Ministry Budget 1,559.7
Ministry of Finance
Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund 505.0 505.0 375.1 74.3
Ontario Cannabis Legalization Implementation Fund 10.0 -3.3 6.7 6.7 99.8
Special Payments to Municipalities 6.7 10.0 16.7 16.7 100.0
Transitional Mitigation Payment 8.6 8.6 4.3 50.0
Other Program Changes -20.3
Total Change to Ministry Budget -5.0
Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care
Local Health Integration Networks 29,470.7 110.0 29,580.7 22,012.9 74.4
Payments made for services and care provided by physicians and practitioners 15,820.0 150.0 15,970.0 11,573.7 72.5
Ontario Drug Programs 4,639.0 77.1 4,716.1 3,257.6 69.1
Cancer Care Ontario 1,797.1 1,797.1 1,412.1 78.6
Major Hospital Projects 1,472.6 1,472.6 749.0 50.9
Official Local Health Agencies 783.0 40.7 823.7 579.7 70.4
Clinical Education 735.9 735.9 514.5 69.9
Payments for Ambulance and related Emergency Services: Municipal Ambulance 710.5 26.3 736.8 542.5 73.6
Community and Priority Services 591.7 591.7 513.3 86.8
Canadian Blood Services 573.0 573.0 429.1 74.9
Assistive Devices and Supplies Program 523.5 523.5 390.3 74.6
Other Program Changes -5.2
Total Change to Ministry Budget 398.9
Ministry of Indigenous Affairs
Land Claim Settlements 14.3 14.3 14.3 100.0
Other Program Changes -0.2
Total Change to Ministry Budget 14.1
Ministry of Infrastructure
Federal-Provincial Infrastructure Programs – Provincial Contributions 66.4 -16.0 50.4 0.0
Other Program Changes -0.5
Total Change to Ministry Budget -16.5
Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
Canada-Ontario Community Housing Initiative – Federal (Operating) 33.2 -6.9 26.2 5.6 21.5
Canada-Ontario Community Housing Initiative – Federal (Capital) 6.9 6.9 3.4 48.6
Municipal Modernization Program 10.0 10.0 0.0
Other Program Changes -1.1
Total Change to Ministry Budget 8.9
Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry
Public Protection 100.6 60.0 160.6 150.7 93.8
Other Program Changes -2.6
Total Change to Ministry Budget 57.4
Ministry of the Solicitor General
Miscellaneous Grants – Policing Services 12.6 0.2 12.8 9.5 74.3
Other Program Changes 1.3
Total Change to Ministry Budget 1.5
Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport
Grants in Support of Culture 14.0 16.0 30.0 14.8 49.2
Other Program Changes -0.7
Total Change to Ministry Budget 15.3
Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities
Grants for University Operating Costs 3,707.5 3,707.5 2,705.2 73.0
Grants for College Operating Costs 1,536.7 1,536.7 981.3 63.9
Student Financial Assistance Programs 1,372.2 1,372.2 1,219.0 88.8
Employment and Training 1,048.9 1,048.9 598.8 57.1
Other Program Changes -1.8
Total Change to Ministry Budget -1.8
Ministry of Transportation
Public Transit 4,740.3 4,740.3 2,971.7 62.7
Other Program Changes 18.0
Total Change to Ministry Budget 18.0
Contingency Funds 1,100.0 -375.3 724.7 N/A N/A
All Other Program Changes 28.1
Total All Ministry Budget Changes 2,528.4

Appendix C: Spending by Ministry

In Table 5, spending of $112.4 billion over the first three quarters of 2019-20 is presented by ministry.

Table 5 2019-20 spending by ministry, as of December 31, 2019, $ millions Note: Figures exclude assets and additional spending of $7.2 billion in the 2019 budget plan not directly controlled by the Province. Source: FAO analysis of the 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates, the Supplementary Estimates, 2019-20 and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Ministry

Revised 2019-20
Budget

Planned Spending at end of Q3

Actual Spending at end of Q3

Actual vs Planned at end of Q3

Actual vs Planned
(Per Cent)

Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs 752 445 433 -12 -2.7
Attorney General 1,823 1,345 1,386 41 3.0
Cabinet Office 32 24 23 -1 -4.2
Children, Community and Social Services 17,492 13,150 13,021 -129 -1.0
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade 849 491 372 -119 -24.2
Education 31,198 22,448 23,024 576 2.6
Energy, Northern Development and Mines 6,466 4,515 3,809 -706 -15.6
Environment, Conservation and Parks 339 232 226 -5 -2.3
Finance 14,095 10,256 9,529 -728 -7.1
Government and Consumer Services 775 548 598 51 9.2
Health and Long-Term Care 60,372 44,159 43,759 -400 -0.9
Indigenous Affairs 89 60 48 -11 -19.2
Infrastructure 447 384 166 -218 -56.8
Labour 306 225 222 -2 -1.0
Municipal Affairs and Housing 1,193 692 744 52 7.5
Natural Resources and Forestry 571 406 443 37 9.1
Office of the Lieutenant Governor 2 1 1 9.9
Office of the Premier 2 2 2 4.9
Seniors and Accessibility/Francophone Affairs 57 37 36 -1 -2.3
Solicitor General 2,990 2,195 2,127 -68 -3.1
Tourism, Culture and Sport 1,228 737 802 65 8.9
Training, Colleges and Universities 8,141 5,917 5,698 -219 -3.7
Transportation 7,078 4,814 4,844 30 0.6
Treasury Board Secretariat 2,471 1,303 1,081 -223 -17.1
Total 158,766 114,384 112,395 -1,989 -1.7

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Year Actual less budgeted spending ($ billion)
2009-10 -3.5
2010-11 -6.4
2011-12 -2.3
2012-13 -4.6
2013-14 -2.2
2014-15 -2.9
2015-16 -4.1
2016-17 -2.7
2017-18 -0.3
2018-19 -3.7
Average -3.3

Footnotes

[1] Ministries estimate planned spending for each program by month, based on the program’s budget allocation. “Planned” spending (or calendarization) for a program takes into account factors such as historical spending patterns and seasonality, and is used to monitor spending pressures and potential year-end savings (or underspending).

[2] The FAO’s budget deficit forecast reflects the pace of actual spending compared to the Province’s planned spending and is based on government spending decisions up to December 31, 2019. For the Province’s 2019-20 Third Quarter Finances, see: https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/finances/2019/ofin19_3.html.

[3] Excludes $7.2 billion in additional planned spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies and the legislative offices. The Province does not actively monitor or control this spending.

[4] Ministries cannot spend more on a program than the amount authorized in the Expenditure Estimates and the Supplementary Estimates (the program’s budget). However, the legislature has delegated to the Province the authority to increase a program’s budget if the increase is offset by a decrease in another program’s budget (including the Contingency Fund). See Financial Administration Act, s. 1.0.8.

[5] At the start of the fiscal year, ministries estimate planned spending for each program by month, based on the budget allocation in the Expenditure Estimates. “Planned” spending (or calendarization) for a program takes into account factors such as historical spending patterns and seasonality, and is used to monitor spending pressures and potential year-end savings (or underspending).

[6] For more information on planned health sector spending, see FAO, “Expenditure Estimates 2019-20: Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care,” 2019.

[7] Savings in this program will not directly impact the budget deficit as this spending is invested in capital assets, which is expensed over the life of the asset. See next section for more analysis.

[8] For more information on education sector spending, see FAO, “Expenditure Estimates 2019-20: Ministry of Education,” 2019.

[9] Savings in this program will not directly impact the budget deficit as this spending is invested in capital assets, which is expensed over the life of the asset. See next section for more analysis.

[10] As noted in the previous section, the Province increased the budget for Electricity Price Mitigation Programs by $1.6 billion through Supplementary Estimates. However, spending through the first three quarters of 2019-20 has not kept pace with the revised budget, leading to actual spending that was $736 million below planned spending as of December 31, 2019.   

[11] The one exception in the 2019-20 Third Quarter Finances is the current outlook for interest on debt spending, which is down $630 million.

[12] Ministry of Finance, “2019-20 Third Quarter Finances,” p. 6.

[13]As of February 24, 2020, the projection for 2019-20 economic growth has not materially changed from the projection in the 2019-20 Third Quarter Finances.

[14] “Budgeted spending” represents total consolidated spending presented in each year’s Expenditure Estimates (Volumes 1 and 2, and Supplementary Estimates, if applicable). “Actual spending” represents total consolidated spending as reported in each year’s Public Accounts of Ontario. The FAO has adjusted some totals to reflect in-year accounting changes so that “budgeted spending” is reported on the same basis as “actual spending.”  

[15] Planned spending at the transfer payment program level is not available.