Expenditure Monitor 2024-25: Q4

Publish date: July 30, 2025 ISSN 2562-9883
This report provides information on spending by the Province through the end of the 2024-25 fiscal year (March 31, 2025).
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About this Document

Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

Prepared by: Michelle Gordon (Manager, Financial Analysis) and Matthew Stephenson (Senior Manager, Financial Analysis), under the direction of Matthew Gurnham (Director, Financial Analysis) and Luan Ngo (Chief Financial Analyst).

This report has been prepared with the benefit of publicly available information and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.

In keeping with the FAO’s mandate to provide the Legislative Assembly of Ontario with independent economic and financial analysis, this report makes no policy recommendations.

© King’s Printer for Ontario, 2025

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Expenditure Monitor 2024-25: Q4, Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2025.
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Highlights

Changes to the 2024-25 Spending Plan

2024-25 Unaudited Spending versus Revised Spending Plan

2024-25 Unaudited Spending versus 2023-24 Audited Spending

2024-25 Unaudited Spending: FAO Estimate versus 2025 Ontario Budget Interim Projection

Status of the Contingency Fund

Introduction

This report provides information on the Government of Ontario’s (the Province’s) spending through the end of the 2024-25 fiscal year (March 31, 2025). The report:

This report reviews spending on a fully consolidated basis, consistent with Ontario Budgets and the Public Accounts of Ontario.[2] The information in this report is based on the FAO’s analysis of transactions recorded in the Province’s Integrated Financial Information System (IFIS) as of April 17, 2025, other adjustments identified by the Province, and the FAO’s estimate of additional spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards, colleges and Children’s Aid Societies), the Province’s agencies and legislative offices. All figures are unaudited, as final audited figures are not available until the release of the Public Accounts of Ontario.

2024-25 Spending Plan

As presented in the 2024 Ontario Budget, the Province began the fiscal year with a spending plan of $217.0 billion.[3] This spending plan represents the legal spending authority for ministries as granted by the Legislature through the process of supply,[4] and an estimate of additional spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards, colleges and Children’s Aid Societies), the Province’s agencies and legislative offices.

Changes to the 2024-25 Spending Plan

The Province may change its spending plan throughout the year, either by requesting additional spending authority from the Legislature through Supplementary Estimates or by reallocating spending among different programs through Treasury Board Orders. In addition, Special Warrants may be issued to authorize spending when the Legislature is not in session, such as during a general election.

After accounting for Supplementary Estimates, Special Warrants, Treasury Board Orders and other adjustments, by the end of the fiscal year, March 31, 2025, the Province’s spending plan was up $10.7 billion to $227.7 billion. By sector, the largest spending plan increase during the fiscal year was in health ($6.2 billion), followed by ‘other programs’ ($2.1 billion), justice ($1.3 billion), children, community and social services ($1.0 billion), postsecondary education ($0.5 billion) and education ($0.5 billion). These spending plan increases were partially offset by a net $1.0 billion drawdown from the Contingency Fund.

Table 1 Changes to the 2024-25 spending plan by sector, $ millions Note: Interest on Debt planned spending has been restated to exclude interest and investment income to align with the fiscally neutral accounting change introduced in the 2025 Ontario Budget. Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector 2024-25 Spending Plan Q1 Changes Q2 Changes Q3 Changes Q4 Changes Total Changes Revised
2024-25
Spending Plan
Health 84,961 17 458 5,694 6,169 91,130
Education 39,306 16 500 516 39,822
Postsecondary Education 12,189 3 9 523 535 12,724
Children, Community and Social Services 19,926 51 956 1,007 20,932
Justice 5,878 307 25 950 1,282 7,161
Other Programs 36,818 53 229 2,488 -656 2,113 38,931
Unallocated Funds:
Contingency Fund 1,505 -96 -665 2,034 -2,247 -973 532
Interest on Debt 16,464 16,464
Total 217,047 -42 -43 5,014 5,721 10,650 227,697

Third and Fourth Quarter Analysis

This section highlights key third and fourth quarter spending plan changes by sector. For information on all of the Province’s programs and ministries, visit the FAO’s website at: https://fao-on.org/en/EM-2024-25-Q4-Spending.

Health: $6,152 million increase. Notable changes include:

Education: $500 million increase.Notable changes include:

Postsecondary Education: $532 million increase.Notable changes include:

Children, Community and Social Services: $956 million increase.Notable changes include:

Justice: $975 million increase. Notable changes include:

Other Programs: $1,831 million increase. Notable changes include:

2024-25 Unaudited Spending

2024-25 Unaudited Spending versus Revised Spending Plan

As noted above, the Province’s revised spending plan for 2024-25 was $227.7 billion. Based on information provided to the FAO by the Province and the FAO’s estimate of additional spending by broader public sector organizations, provincial agencies and the legislative offices, the FAO estimates that unaudited spending by the Province in 2024-25 was $226.7 billion. Overall, 2024-25 unaudited spending was $1.0 billion (-0.5 per cent) less than planned.

By sector, lower-than-planned spending was led by interest on debt (-$1,240 million, -7.5 per cent), followed by ‘other programs’ (-$636 million, -1.6 per cent), children, community and social services (-$222 million, -1.1 per cent), justice (-$67 million, -0.9 per cent) and education (-$52 million, -0.1 per cent). Conversely, postsecondary education ($1,166 million, 9.2 per cent) and health ($548 million, 0.6 per cent) had higher-than-planned spending. Additionally, the Contingency Fund had a remaining year-end balance of $532 million, which contributes to lower-than-planned spending.

Table 2 2024-25 unaudited spending versus revised spending plan by sector, $ millions Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector Revised 2024-25 Spending Plan 2024-25 Unaudited Spending Unaudited Spending vs. Revised Spending Plan Unaudited Spending vs. Revised Spending Plan
(%)
Health 91,130 91,678 548 0.6%
Education 39,822 39,770 -52 -0.1%
Postsecondary Education 12,724 13,891 1,166 9.2%
Children, Community and Social Services 20,932 20,711 -222 -1.1%
Justice 7,161 7,093 -67 -0.9%
Other Programs 38,931 38,295 -636 -1.6%
Unallocated Funds:
Contingency Fund 532 -532 N/A
Interest on Debt 16,464 15,224 -1,240 -7.5%
Total 227,697 226,662 -1,035 -0.5%

The rest of this section highlights key program spending that was above and below plan in 2024-25. For information on spending by all of the Province’s programs and ministries, visit the FAO’s website at: https://fao-on.org/en/EM-2024-25-Q4-Spending.

Health sector spending: $548 million (0.6 per cent) more than planned. Highlights include:

Postsecondary education sector spending: $1,166 million (9.2 per cent) more than planned, largely due to an estimated $1,220 million in higher-than-planned operating spending by colleges as a result of a later-than-expected impact from the federal government’s intake cap on international students.

Children, community and social services sector spending: $222 million (-1.1 per cent) less than planned. Highlights include:

Other programs sector spending: $636 million (-1.6 per cent) less than planned. Highlights include:

Interest on Debt spending: $1,240 million (-7.5 per cent) less than planned.

2024-25 Unaudited Spending versus 2023-24 Audited Spending

This report also compares 2024-25 unaudited spending against 2023-24 audited spending to provide context for provincial spending trends and to identify significant year-over-year spending changes.

As noted above, the FAO estimates that the Province spent $226.7 billion in 2024-25. This was $17.0 billion (8.1 per cent) more than was spent in 2023-24. The largest year-over-year spending increase was in health ($6,221 million, 7.3 per cent), followed by ‘other programs’ ($6,104 million, 19.0 per cent), children, community and social services ($1,235 million, 6.3 per cent), justice ($1,057 million, 17.5 per cent), education ($959 million, 2.5 per cent), interest on debt ($763 million, 5.3 per cent) and postsecondary education ($656 million, 5.0 per cent).

Table 3 2024-25 unaudited spending vs. 2023-24 audited spending, $ millions Note: *2023-24 values for Interest on Debt and total spending have been restated to exclude interest and investment income to align with the fiscally neutral accounting change introduced in the 2025 Ontario Budget. Source: FAO analysis of the 2023-24 Public Accounts of Ontario and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector 2023-24 Audited Spending 2024-25 Unaudited Spending 2024-25 vs. 2023-24 2024-25 vs. 2023-24 (%)
Health 85,458 91,678 6,221 7.3
Education 38,811 39,770 959 2.5
Postsecondary Education 13,235 13,891 656 5.0
Children, Community and Social Services 19,476 20,711 1,235 6.3
Justice 6,037 7,093 1,057 17.5
Other Programs 32,191 38,295 6,104 19.0
Interest on Debt* 14,461 15,224 763 5.3
Total* 209,668 226,662 16,994 8.1

2024-25 Unaudited Spending: FAO Estimate versus 2025 Ontario Budget Interim Projection

In the 2025 Ontario Budget, the Province projected that unaudited spending in 2024-25 was $227.6 billion. As noted above, the FAO estimates that unaudited spending in 2024-25 was $226.7 billion. Overall, the FAO’s estimate is $0.9 billion (0.4 per cent) less than the Province’s projection. The main differences between the FAO’s and the Province’s estimates are in health ($1.2 billion, or 1.3 per cent, above the Province’s projection), ‘other programs’ (-$1.5 billion, or -3.8 per cent, below the Province’s projection), postsecondary education (‑$0.4 billion, or -2.5 per cent, below the Province’s projection), and education (-$0.3 billion, or -0.7 per cent, below the Province’s projection).

Final audited 2024-25 spending will be available in the 2024-25 Public Accounts of Ontario, which will be released in September 2025.

Table 4 2024-25 unaudited spending: FAO estimate vs. Province’s interim projection, $ millions * Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) expense is included in the education sector. Source: 2025 Ontario Budget and FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector Interim Projection 2025 Ontario Budget FAO Estimate FAO vs. Province FAO vs. Province
(%)
Health 90,526 91,678 1,152 1.3
Education 40,037 39,770 -267 -0.7
Postsecondary Education 14,243 13,891 -352 -2.5
Children, Community and Social Services 20,625 20,711 86 0.4
Justice 7,150 7,093 -57 -0.8
Other Programs* 39,793 38,295 -1,498 -3.8
Interest on Debt 15,224 15,224 0 0.0
Total 227,598 226,662 -936 -0.4

Status of the Contingency Fund

The Contingency Fund is used to address spending pressures or fund program changes during the fiscal year. The funds within the Contingency Fund cannot be spent directly by the Province but must be transferred to government programs through Treasury Board Orders.

The Province started the 2024-25 fiscal year with a total of $1.5 billion in the Contingency Fund.

Table 5 Status of the Contingency Fund in 2024-25, $ millions Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Opening Balance Q1 Transfers to Ministries Q2 Transfers to Ministries Q3 Top-Up Q3 Transfers to Ministries Q3 Transfers to C-Fund Q4 Transfers to Ministries Q4 Transfers to C-Fund Balance at Year-End
1,505 -96 -665 900 -648 1,782 -4,457 2,210 532
Table 6 Status of the Contingency Fund in 2024-25, $ millions * Due to data limitations, amount is an FAO estimate. Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Ministry/Program $ millions
Opening Contingency Fund Balance as of April 1, 2024 1,505
Less: Total First Quarter Transfer to Ministries -96
Less: Total Second Quarter Transfer to Ministries -665
Add: Third Quarter Top-Up 900
Third Quarter Transfers to Ministries
Ministry of the Attorney General
Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (Operating) 9
Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (Operating Asset) 1
Ministry of Colleges and Universities
Capital Grants – Universities 8
Research Operating Costs 1
Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade
Sector Support Grants 3
Ministry of Education
Funding to External Partners <1
Ministry of Finance
Government Business Enterprise 44
Ministry of Indigenous Affairs
Land Claims Settlements 100
Ministry of Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development
Employment and Training 155
Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
Homelessness Programs (New Deal) 240
Homelessness Programs (Capital) 20
National Housing Strategy Programs (Capital) 19
National Housing Strategy Programs (Operating) 6
Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry
Public Protection 20
Sustainable Resource Management * <1
Ministry of Northern Development
Northern Infrastructure (Capital) 5
Ministry for Seniors and Accessibility
Seniors Affairs Transfer Payment 1
Ministry of the Solicitor General
Miscellaneous Grants – Policing Services 16
Less: Total Third Quarter Transfer to Ministries -648
Third Quarter Transfers to Contingency Fund from Ministries
Ministry of Energy
Ontario Electricity Rebate 500
Ministry of Finance
Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation Dedicated Electricity Earnings 467
Ministry of Infrastructure
Broadband and Cellular Infrastructure 273
Ministry of Long-Term Care
Long-Term Care Homes – Operations 542
Add: Total Third Quarter Transfers to Contingency Fund from Ministries 1,782
Fourth Quarter Transfers to Ministries
Cabinet Office
Main Office <1
Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness
Various Programs 6
Ministry of the Attorney General
Political Contribution Tax Credit 10
Various Programs 125
Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services
Ontario Works – Financial Assistance* 676
Children’s Activity Tax Credit <1
Various Programs 264
Ministry of Citizenship and Multiculturalism
Various Programs 3
Ministry of Colleges and Universities
Student Financial Assistance Programs 517
Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade
Ontario Innovation Tax Credit 41
Ontario Business-Research Institute Tax Credit 12
Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit 5
Ministry of Education
Ontario Child Care Tax Credit 58
Various Programs 615
Ministry of Energy
Northern Ontario Energy Credit <1
Ministry of Francophone Affairs
Francophone Affairs Co-ordination <1
Ministry of Health
Ontario Drug Programs* 303
Outbreaks of Diseases* 124
Community Support Services* 122
Regional Coordination Operations Support 111
Personal Protective Equipment, Critical Supplies and Equipment* 108
Community Health Centres* 100
Healthy Homes Renovation Tax Credit <1
Various Programs 610
Ministry of Indigenous Affairs
Land Claim Settlements 16
Ministry of Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development
Employment and Training 100
Ministry of Mines
Various Programs 37
Ministry of Natural Resources
Regional Operations Support Programs 11
Forestry Initiatives 10
Public Protection <1
Various Programs 76
Ministry of Northern Economic Development and Growth
Northern Development (Capital Asset)* 30
Ministry of Public and Business Service Delivery and Procurement
Various Programs 184
Ministry of the Solicitor General
Various Programs 48
Ministry of Transportation
Metrolinx Operating Subsidies 129
Ontario Seniors Public Transit Tax Credit 2
Less: Total Fourth Quarters to Ministries -4,457
Fourth Quarter Transfers to Contingency Fund from Ministries
Ministry of Colleges and Universities
Colleges, universities and student support (Operating Asset) 85
Capital Grants – Colleges 13
Capital Grants – Universities <1
Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade
Industrial Land Development 393
Strategic Investments 327
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Operating Asset) 92
Invest Ontario Fund 66
Jobs and Prosperity Fund and Other Business Support Programs 19
Life Sciences Strategy 9
Sector Support Grants 3
Commercialization and Innovation Network Support <1
Ministry of Energy
Ontario Electricity Rebate 50
Comprehensive Electricity Plan 16
Ontario Electricity Support Program 15
Distribution Rate Protection 15
Energy Development and Management (Operating Asset) 11
Policy and Programs – Services <1
Energy Support, Engagement and Indigenous Partnership Programs <1
Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks
Improving Municipal Wastewater and Stormwater Management 13
Environmental Sciences and Laboratory Infrastructure (Capital Asset) 8
Ontario Parks Infrastructure (Capital Asset) 8
Environmental Sciences and Standards 5
Lake Simcoe Phosphorus Reduction Project 1
Wastewater Monitoring and Public Reporting <1
Species at Risk in Ontario Stewardship <1
Land and Water – Conservation and Water Protection <1
Environmental Policy and Programs <1
Supporting Agricultural Washwater Treatment <1
Ministry of Finance
Temporary and Other Local Assistance 4
Tax and Benefits Administration 1
Ministry of Infrastructure
Broadband and Cellular Infrastructure 160
Housing-Enabling Water Systems Fund 76
Broadband and Cellular Infrastructure (Operating) 49
Community, Culture and Recreation (Federal Contributions) 42
Municipal Housing Infrastructure Program 24
Community, Culture and Recreation (Provincial Contributions) 17
Strategic Priorities and Infrastructure Fund 15
Government Real Estate (Operating) – Services 14
Government Real Estate (Capital) 10
Infrastructure Partnership Projects & Agency Oversight – Services 8
ICIP – COVID-19 Resilience (Federal Contribution)* 5
Rural and Northern Infrastructure – Federal Contribution 4
Legislative Building Restoration 3
Rural and Northern Infrastructure – Provincial Contribution 3
Infrastructure Policy, Planning, and Projects 2
Clean Water and Wastewater Fund – Federal Contributions <1
Clean Water and Wastewater Fund – Provincial Contributions <1
Ministry of Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development
Employment and Training 92
Ontario Co-operative Education Tax Credit 21
Skills Development Fund Capital 9
OHS Prevention (Capital Asset) 4
Prevention Office <1
Ministry of Long-Term Care
Long-Term Care Homes – Operations 219
Ministry of Mines
Focused Flow-Through Share Tax Credit 8
Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
Building Faster Fund 135
Advances and Recoverable Amounts (Operating Asset) 4
Ministry of Seniors and Accessibility
Ontario Seniors Care at Home Tax Credit 23
Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport
Grants in Support of Sport and Recreation 34
Ontario Film and Television Tax Credit 14
Ontario Book Publishing Tax Credit <1
Treasury Board Secretariat
Supply Ontario 46
Treasury Board Support (Capital Asset) 6
Supply Chain Policy and Oversight Division – Salaries and Wages <1
Add: Total Fourth Quarter Transfers to Contingency Fund from Ministries 2,210
Contingency Fund Balance at Year-End 532

Footnotes

[1] 2024-25 planned spending includes a restatement for Interest on Debt expense to exclude interest and investment income to align with the fiscally neutral accounting change introduced in the 2025 Ontario Budget.

[2] Prior to 2024-25, Expenditure Monitor reports reviewed spending by the Province’s ministries and excluded additional spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards, colleges and Children’s Aid Societies), the Province’s agencies and the legislative offices.

[3] 2024-25 planned spending includes a restatement for Interest on Debt expense to exclude interest and investment income to align with the fiscally neutral accounting change introduced in the 2025 Ontario Budget.

[4] Temporary spending authority is first granted by the Legislature through the Interim Appropriation Act, with final spending authority then granted through the Supply Act. Permanent spending authority is also granted through other legislation for a limited number of programs.