Expenditure Monitor 2019-20: Q2

Publish date: December 2, 2019 ISSN 2562-9883
The Expenditure Monitor is a new type of report, and the first of its kind from the FAO, intended to assist Members of Provincial Parliament track provincial spending and changes to program budgets over the course of the year.
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About this Document

Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

This analysis was prepared by Jacob Kim, under the direction of Luan Ngo and Jeffrey Novak. Matthew Stephenson and Laura Irish also contributed to the report.

This report has been prepared with the benefit of publicly available information and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.

All dollar amounts are in Canadian, current dollars (i.e., not adjusted for inflation) unless otherwise noted.

© Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2019

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Expenditure Monitor 2019-20: Q2, Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2019.
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Introduction and Background

In the 2019 Ontario Budget, the Province’s budget plan projects total spending in 2019-20 of $163.4 billion. This spending forecast was updated in the Province’s First Quarter Finances and the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (also known as the Fall Economic Statement). However, although these publications update the Province’s full-year spending forecast, no information is provided on actual spending that has occurred to date. In addition, these publications provide limited information on in-year changes made to the 2019-20 budget spending plan by program.[1]

This report provides an update, as of the end of the second quarter (September 30, 2019), of actual spending by the Province in the 2019-20 fiscal year by budget sector, ministry, standard account and program. In addition, the report identifies in-year changes made to the 2019-20 spending plan by program.

It is important to note that although the 2019 budget projects spending of $163.4 billion in 2019-20, only $156.2 billion of the spending plan is directly controlled by the Province. The remaining $7.2 billion largely reflects a forecast of additional spending and other decisions that will be made by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies, and the legislative offices. The Province actively controls and monitors the $156.2 billion in spending under its direct control and receives updates on the remaining $7.2 billion in spending when it prepares the annual budget and the Public Accounts. As a result, this report only provides information on the $156.2 billion in planned spending under the direct control of the Province.

Table 1 2019 budget spending plan for the 2019-20 fiscal year Note: “Spending not actively monitored by the Province” largely reflects additional spending and other decisions that will be made by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards and colleges), the Province’s agencies, and the legislative offices. Source: FAO analysis of the 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates and the 2019 Ontario Budget.
Spending Type Total ($ billions)
Spending under the direct control of the Province 156.2
Spending not actively monitored by the Province 7.2
Total 2019 budget spending plan for 2019-20 163.4

Spending by Budget Sector

Over the first six months of the 2019-20 fiscal year, the Province spent $69.0 billion. Overall, this is $164 million or 0.2 per cent higher than planned by the Province at the time of the 2019 budget.[2] Although the “pace” of total government spending is largely in line with the 2019-20 budget plan, there are noteworthy variances within each spending sector.

Table 2 2019-20 spending by budget sector, as of September 30, 2019, $ millions Note: Excludes spending of $7.2 billion in the 2019 budget plan not directly controlled by the Province. Source: FAO analysis of the 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates, the 2019 Ontario Budget and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector
($ millions)
Full-Year Budget Planned Spending at end of Q2 Actual Spending at end of Q2 Actual vs Planned at end of Q2 Actual vs Planned
(Per Cent)
Health 59,973 28,430 28,933 503 1.8
Education 31,015 10,570 10,854 284 2.7
Postsecondary Education and Training 8,143 3,839 3,748 -90 -2.4
Children’s and Social Services 16,857 8,271 8,589 318 3.8
Justice 4,814 2,339 2,308 -31 -1.3
Other Programs 22,761 9,164 8,766 -398 -4.3
Interest on Debt 12,675 6,271 5,849 -422 -6.7
Total 156,238 68,883 69,047 164 0.2

Health sector spending, at $28.9 billion, was $503 million or 1.8 per cent higher than planned through the first six months of the fiscal year.[3]

Education sector spending, at $10.9 billion, was $284 million or 2.7 per cent higher than planned through the first six months of the fiscal year.[4]

Postsecondary Education and Training sector spending, at $3.7 billion, was $90 million or 2.4 per cent lower than planned through the first six months of the fiscal year.

Children’s and Social Services sector spending, at $8.6 billion, was $318 million or 3.8 per cent higher than planned through the first six months of the fiscal year.

Justice sector spending, at $2.3 billion, was $31 million or 1.3 per cent lower than planned through the first six months of the fiscal year.

Other Programs sector spending, at $8.8 billion, was $398 million or 4.3 per cent lower than planned through the first six months of the fiscal year.

Interest on Debt spending, at $5.8 billion, was $422 million or 6.7 per cent lower than planned through the first six months of the fiscal year.

Spending by Ministry

In Table 3, spending of $69.0 billion over the first six months of 2019-20 is presented by ministry.

Table 3 2019-20 spending by ministry, as of September 30, 2019, $ millions Note: Excludes spending of $7.2 billion in the 2019 budget plan not directly controlled by the Province. Source: FAO analysis of 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Ministry Full-Year Budget Planned Spending at end of Q2 Actual Spending at end of Q2 Actual vs Planned at end of Q2 Actual vs Planned
(Per Cent)
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs 742 281 294 14 4.8
Attorney General 1,825 885 908 22 2.5
Cabinet Office 36 18 17 -1 -7.2
Children, Community and Social Services 16,857 8,271 8,589 318 3.8
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade 846 326 229 -98 -29.9
Education 31,015 10,570 10,854 284 2.7
Energy, Northern Development and Mines 4,906 2,218 2,578 359 16.2
Environment, Conservation and Parks 338 142 149 7 5.0
Finance 14,100 6,842 6,385 -457 -6.7
Government and Consumer Services 773 388 374 -13 -3.4
Health and Long-Term Care 59,973 28,430 28,933 503 1.8
Indigenous Affairs 74 27 18 -9 -31.8
Infrastructure 464 209 103 -106 -50.7
Labour 306 146 149 3 2.4
Municipal Affairs and Housing 1,184 406 444 38 9.5
Natural Resources and Forestry 513 263 312 50 18.9
Office of the Lieutenant Governor 2 1 1 0 4.1
Office of the Premier 2 1 1 -1 -41.3
Seniors and Accessibility/Francophone Affairs 57 22 22 -0 -0.8
Solicitor General 2,988 1,454 1,401 -53 -3.7
Tourism, Culture and Sport 1,212 354 368 14 4.1
Training, Colleges and Universities 8,143 3,839 3,748 -90 -2.4
Transportation 7,060 2,949 2,456 -492 -16.7
Treasury Board Secretariat 2,819 841 713 -129 -15.3
Total 156,238 68,883 69,047 164 0.2

Spending by Standard Account

Rather than identifying provincial spending by sector or ministry, an alternate way to review provincial spending is by “standard account.”[6]

As of September 30, 2019, the Province had spent $56.4 billion on transfer payments, which was $811 million higher than planned. Transfer payment programs can be entitlement-based, such as the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP),[7] which results in spending that is higher or lower than budgeted based on demand.

Spending in most of the other standard accounts was below plan, with the most significant relative underspending in transportation and communication, supplies and equipment, and other transactions. This implies that, by the end of the 2019-20 fiscal year, spending on items such as travel, professional services and supplies may be less than budgeted.

Table 4 2019-20 spending by standard account, as of September 30, 2019, $ millions Note: Excludes spending of $7.2 billion in the 2019 budget plan not directly controlled by the Province. * Salaries and wages represent only the salaries for Ontario Public Service (ministry) employees. Salaries for broader public sector workers employed by hospitals, school boards and colleges, for example, are included in transfer payments. See FAO, “Assessing Ontario Government Employment and Wage Expense,” 2018, for more information. Source: FAO analysis of 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Standard Account Full-Year Budget Planned Spending at end of Q2 Actual Spending at end of Q2 Actual vs Planned at end of Q2 Actual vs Planned
(Per Cent)
Salaries and Wages* 5,863 2,898 2,880 -18 -0.6
Employee Benefits 2,816 1,333 1,267 -66 -5.0
Transportation and Communication 339 150 107 -43 -28.7
Services 4,253 1,673 1,563 -110 -6.6
Supplies and Equipment 337 148 127 -21 -14.2
Other Transactions 1,720 101 76 -24 -24.2
Transfer Payments 127,451 55,599 56,410 811 1.5
Statutory Spending 16,411 8,116 7,587 -529 -6.5
Recoveries -2,952 -1,135 -969 166 14.6
Total 156,238 68,883 69,047 164 0.2

Spending by Program

The following table shows spending for a number of transfer payment programs and compares actual spending as of September 30, 2019 against each program’s full-year budget.[8]

In addition, programs with in-year budget changes, as of September 30, 2019, are identified.[9] Through the first six months of the 2019-20 fiscal year, the Province changed the full-year budget of 22 transfer payment programs and made 64 other changes to vote-item programs, compared to the 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates. Overall, including Contingency Fund offsets, the full-year budget for all program spending has been reduced by a net $7 million.

In the 2019 Fall Economic Statement, the Province reported that the full-year program spending budget for 2019-20 had increased by a net $771 million, including Contingency Fund offsets.[10] The net $771 million program spending increase represents a significant variance compared to the net $7 million program spending decrease reported to the FAO as of September 30, 2019, and appears to exceed the government’s current legal spending limit.[11] In general, it is not legally possible to increase the total program spending budget, on a net basis, beyond the amount requested in the Expenditure Estimates, unless the Province:

Table 5 2019-20 spending and budget changes by program, as of September 30, 2019, $ millions Note: Other Program Changes includes 64 budget changes to vote-item programs. All figures in the table exclude assets and statutory spending. Source: FAO analysis of the 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Program Name Full-Year Budget Change to Budget Revised Full-Year Budget Actual Spending at end of Q2 Per Cent of Revised Budget
Ministry of the Attorney General
Legal Aid Ontario 323.3 323.3 183.5 56.8%
Other Program Changes -2.8
Total Change to Ministry Budget -2.8
Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services
Ontario Disability Support Program 5,383.2 5,383.2 2,726.0 50.6%
Ontario Works 2,725.1 2,725.1 1,529.3 56.1%
Residential Services 1,685.3 68.6 1,753.9 777.0 44.3%
Child Protection Services 1,528.5 27.7 1,556.2 786.5 50.5%
Ontario Child Benefit 1,158.0 1,158.0 540.1 46.6%
Ontario Drug Benefit Plan 1,144.1 1,144.1 638.9 55.8%
Supportive Services 937.3 28.3 965.5 430.4 44.6%
Autism 331.4 331.4 184.5 55.7%
Child and Youth Community Supports 190.1 28.1 218.2 89.4 41.0%
Supports to Victims of Violence 155.0 6.1 161.1 79.5 49.3%
Children’s Treatment and Rehabilitation Services 117.0 4.7 121.7 59.1 48.6%
Complex Special Needs 104.0 4.1 108.1 68.0 62.9%
Healthy Babies Healthy Children 95.5 3.8 99.3 41.8 42.1%
Citizenship and Immigration Initiatives 70.2 6.0 76.2 28.9 37.9%
Indigenous Community and Prevention Supports 61.2 2.4 63.7 41.0 64.4%
Supports to Community Living 56.8 2.1 58.9 24.3 41.3%
Youth Initiatives 34.6 14.8 49.3 12.8 26.0%
Indigenous Healing and Wellness Strategy 33.4 1.3 34.7 17.9 51.5%
Community and Prevention Supports 29.4 1.2 30.6 35.0 114.3%
Other Program Changes -1.8
Total Change to Ministry Budget 197.3
Ministry of Education
School Board Operating Grants 17,361.7 17,361.7 8,694.3 50.1%
Child Care and Early Years 1,782.2 1,782.2 962.4 54.0%
School Board Capital Grants 1,582.6 1,582.6 19.9 1.3%
Other Program Changes -3.1
Total Change to Ministry Budget -3.1
Ministry of Energy, Northern Development and Mines
Electricity Rate Mitigation 2,530.6 2,530.6 1,630.9 64.4%
Ontario Rebate for Electricity Consumers 779.4 779.4 329.9 42.3%
Rural or Remote Rate Protection Program 238.4 238.4 101.1 42.4%
Ontario Electricity Support Program 214.0 214.0 74.7 34.9%
Distribution Rate Protection 205.1 205.1 90.2 44.0%
Other Program Changes -0.5
Total Change to Ministry Budget -0.5
Ministry of Finance
Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund 505.0 505.0 251.6 49.8%
Ontario Cannabis Legalization Implementation Fund 10.0 -3.3 6.7 6.7 99.9%
Special Payments to Municipalities 6.7 10.0 16.7 16.7 100.0%
Transitional Mitigation Payment 0.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 100.0%
Other Program Changes -16.0
Total Change to Ministry Budget -5.0
Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care
Local Health Integration Networks 29,470.7 29,470.7 14,620.7 49.6%
Payments made for services and for care provided by physicians and practitioners 15,820.0 15,820.0 7,528.7 47.6%
Ontario Drug Programs 4,639.0 4,639.0 2,370.6 51.1%
Cancer Care Ontario 1,797.1 1,797.1 960.0 53.4%
Major Hospital Projects 1,472.6 1,472.6 369.2 25.1%
Official Local Health Agencies 783.0 40.7 823.7 365.2 44.3%
Clinical Education 735.9 735.9 342.5 46.5%
Payments for Ambulance and related Emergency Services: Municipal Ambulance 710.5 26.3 736.8 363.0 49.3%
Community and Priority Services 591.7 591.7 318.6 53.8%
Canadian Blood Services 573.0 573.0 285.6 49.8%
Assistive Devices and Supplies Program 523.5 523.5 252.7 48.3%
Other Program Changes -5.2
Total Change to Ministry Budget 61.8
Ministry of Infrastructure
Federal-Provincial Infrastructure Programs – Provincial Contributions 66.4 -16.0 50.4 0.0 0.0%
Other Program Changes -0.5
Total Change to Ministry Budget -16.5
Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry
Public Protection 100.6 60.0 160.6 127.2 79.2%
Other Program Changes -2.6
Total Change to Ministry Budget 57.4
Ministry of the Solicitor General
Miscellaneous Grants – Policing Services 12.6 0.2 12.8 5.0 39.3%
Other Program Changes 1.3
Total Change to Ministry Budget 1.5
Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport
Grants in Support of Culture 14.0 16.0 30.0 8.2 27.4%
Other Program Changes -0.7
Total Change to Ministry Budget 15.3
Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities
Grants for University Operating Costs 3,707.5 3,707.5 1,797.8 48.5%
Grants for College Operating Costs 1,536.7 1,536.7 661.1 43.0%
Student Financial Assistance Programs 1,372.2 1,372.2 776.7 56.6%
Employment and Training 1,048.9 1,048.9 418.9 39.9%
Other Program Changes -1.8
Total Change to Ministry Budget -1.8
Ministry of Transportation
Public Transit 4,740.3 4,740.3 1,416.9 29.9%
Other Program Changes 10.7
Total Change to Ministry Budget 10.7
Contingency Funds 1,100.0 -346.4 753.6 N/A N/A
All Other Program Changes 25.4
Total Ministry Budget Changes -6.6

Footnotes

[1] Ontario’s quarterly financial updates provide information on in-year budget changes to select programs rather than a complete list of changes. Complete details on in-year program spending budget changes are provided in the Public Accounts of Ontario and the Ontario Gazette but only after the end of the fiscal year.

[2] At the start of the fiscal year, ministries estimate planned spending for each program by month, based on the budget allocation in the Expenditure Estimates. “Planned” spending (or calendarization) for a program takes into account factors such as historical spending patterns and seasonality, and is used to monitor spending pressures and potential year-end underspending.

[3] For more information on planned health sector spending, see FAO, “Expenditure Estimates 2019-20: Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care,” 2019.

[4] For more information on education sector spending, see FAO, “Expenditure Estimates 2019-20: Ministry of Education,” 2019.

[5] For more information on transportation spending, see FAO, “Expenditure Estimates 2019-20: Ministry of Transportation,” 2019.

[6] Standard accounts provide information on the type of government spending. See the 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates for more information on the standard accounts used by the Province.

[7] The transfer payment program that funds OHIP is called “Payments made for services and for care provided by physicians and practitioners.”

[8] Planned spending as of September 30, 2019 is not available.

[9] Ministries cannot spend more on a program than the amount authorized in the Expenditure Estimates (the program’s budget). However, the legislature has delegated to the Province the authority to increase a program’s budget if the increase is offset by a decrease in another program’s budget (including the Contingency Fund). See Financial Administration Act, s. 1.0.8.

[10] 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, p. 158.

[11] As requested in the 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates.

[12] The Supplementary Estimates must also be approved by the legislature. It is also not legally possible to increase the total full-year program spending budget through lower Interest on Debt spending, as spending on Interest on Debt is authorized through the Financial Administration Act and most of the full-year program spending budget is authorized through the Supply Bill.