Expenditure Monitor 2025-26: Q2

Publish date: December 10, 2025 ISSN 2562-9883
This report provides information on spending by the Province through the first two quarters of the 2025-26 fiscal year (from April 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025).
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About this Document

Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

Prepared by: Michelle Gordon (Manager, Financial Analysis) and Lisa Barkova (Financial Analyst), under the direction of Matt Gurnham (Director, Financial Analysis) and Luan Ngo (Chief Financial Analyst).

This report has been prepared with the benefit of publicly available information and information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.

In keeping with the FAO’s mandate to provide the Legislative Assembly of Ontario with independent economic and financial analysis, this report makes no policy recommendations.

© King’s Printer for Ontario, 2025

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Expenditure Monitor 2025-26: Q2, Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2025.
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Highlights

Changes to the 2025-26 Spending Plan

Unaudited Spending versus Planned Spending

2025-26 Spending versus 2024-25 Spending

Status of the Contingency Fund

Introduction

This report provides information on the Government of Ontario’s (the Province’s) spending through the first two quarters of the 2025-26 fiscal year, from April 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025. The report:

This report reviews spending on a fully consolidated basis, consistent with the 2025 Ontario Budget and the Public Accounts of Ontario. The information in this report is based on the FAO’s analysis of transactions recorded in the Province’s Integrated Financial Information System (IFIS) as of September 30, 2025, and the FAO’s estimate of additional spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards, colleges and Children’s Aid Societies), the Province’s agencies and legislative offices. All figures are unaudited, as final audited figures are not available until the release of the Public Accounts of Ontario up to six months after the end of the fiscal year.

2025-26 Spending Plan

As presented in the 2025 Ontario Budget, the Province began the fiscal year with a spending plan of $232.5 billion. This spending plan represents the legal spending authority for ministries as granted by the Legislature through the process of supply,[2] and an estimate of additional spending by the broader public sector organizations controlled by the Province (hospitals, school boards, colleges and Children’s Aid Societies), the Province’s agencies and legislative offices.

Changes to the 2025-26 Spending Plan

The Province may change its spending plan throughout the year, either by requesting additional spending authority from the Legislature through Supplementary Estimates or by reallocating spending authority among different programs through Treasury Board Orders. As of the end of the second quarter, September 30, 2025, the Province’s spending plan was down $254 million.

By sector, there were spending plan increases in ‘other programs’ ($241 million) and justice ($10 million). These increases were more than offset by a $505 million transfer from the Contingency Fund.

In contrast, in the government’s 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (released on November 6, 2025), the Province reported a net spending plan increase of $2.1 billion. The FAO expects that the $2.1 billion spending plan increase will be reflected in the government’s financial accounts in the third quarter of 2025-26.

Table 1 2025-26 spending plan changes by sector, as of September 30, 2025, $ millions Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector 2025-26 Spending Plan Q1 Changes Q2 Changes Total Changes Revised 2025-26 Spending Plan
Health 91,131 91,131
Education 42,720 42,720
Postsecondary Education 12,986 12,986
Children, Community and Social Services 20,359 20,359
Justice 6,743 10 10 6,753
Other Programs 39,360 11 230 241 39,600
Unallocated Funds:
Contingency Fund 3,000 -11 -495 -505 2,495
Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges 16,198 16,198
Total 232,497 -254 -254 232,242

First and Second Quarter Analysis

This section highlights key spending plan changes in the first half of 2025-26 by sector. For information on all of the Province’s programs and ministries, visit the FAO’s website at: https://fao-on.org/en/em-2025-26-q2-spending.

Other Programs: $241 million increase. Notable changes include:

Unaudited Spending

Unaudited Spending versus Planned Spending

This report compares unaudited spending against the Province’s spending plan by quarter[3] to provide information on sectors and programs that may be experiencing spending pressures or budget savings, and to track the status of the Province’s full-year spending plan.

Over the first half of 2025-26, the FAO estimates that the Province spent $107.9 billion compared to planned spending of $106.3 billion. Overall, unaudited spending was $1.7 billion (1.6 per cent) more than planned.

Figure 1 2025-26 unaudited spending versus planned spending, by quarter, $ billions

Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.

Accessible version
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Planned Spending 52.0 54.3 56.8 69.1
Unaudited Spending 52.7 55.2

By sector, higher-than-planned spending was led by health ($1,632 million, 3.7 per cent), children, community and social services ($284 million, 2.8 per cent) and postsecondary education ($160 million, 2.5 per cent). This was partially offset by lower-than-planned spending in ‘other programs’ (-$349 million, -2.4 per cent), justice (-$43 million, -1.4 per cent), education (-$14 million, -0.1 per cent) and interest and other debt servicing charges (-$14 million, -0.2 per cent).

Table 2 2025-26 unaudited spending versus planned spending by sector, as of September 30, 2025, $ millions Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector Revised 2025-26 Spending Plan Planned Spending at end of Q2 Unaudited Spending at end of Q2 Unaudited vs. Planned at end of Q2 Unaudited vs. Planned (%)
Health 91,131 43,646 45,278 1,632 3.7
Education 42,720 20,579 20,565 -14 -0.1
Postsecondary Education 12,986 6,363 6,523 160 2.5
Children, Community and Social Services 20,359 10,109 10,393 284 2.8
Justice 6,753 3,075 3,032 -43 -1.4
Other Programs 39,600 14,616 14,267 -349 -2.4
Unallocated Funds:
Contingency Fund 2,495
Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges 16,198 7,884 7,870 -14 -0.2
Total 232,242 106,272 107,927 1,656 1.6

The rest of this section highlights key program spending that was above and below plan in the first half of 2025-26. For information on spending by all of the Province’s programs and ministries, visit the FAO’s website at: https://fao-on.org/en/em-2025-26-q2-spending.

Health sector spending: $1,632 million (3.7 per cent) more than planned. Highlights include:

Postsecondary education sector spending: $160 million (2.5 per cent) more than planned. Highlights include:

Children, community and social services sector spending: $284 million (2.8 per cent) more than planned. Highlights include:

Other programs sector spending: $349 million (-2.4 per cent) less than planned. Highlights include:

2025-26 Spending versus 2024-25 Spending

This report also compares 2025-26 unaudited year-to-date spending against 2024-25 spending to provide context for provincial spending trends and to identify significant year-over-year spending changes.

In the first half of 2025-26, the FAO estimates that the Province spent $107.9 billion. This was $5.9 billion (5.8 per cent) more than was spent in the first half of 2024-25. The largest year-over-year spending increase was in health ($2,286 million, 5.3 per cent), followed by education ($1,801 million, 9.6 per cent), ‘other programs’ ($1,075 million, 8.1 per cent), children, community and social services ($325 million, 3.2 per cent), justice ($236 million, 8.4 per cent), interest and other debt servicing charges ($193 million, 2.5 per cent) and postsecondary education ($13 million, 0.2 per cent).

Table 3 Unaudited spending through the end of the second quarter by sector, 2025-26 vs. 2024-25, $ millions Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Sector 2024-25 Spending at end of Q2 2025-26 Spending at end of Q2 2025-26 vs. 2024-25 2025-26 vs. 2024-25 (%)
Health 42,992 45,278 2,286 5.3
Education 18,764 20,565 1,801 9.6
Postsecondary Education 6,510 6,523 13 0.2
Children, Community and Social Services 10,068 10,393 325 3.2
Justice 2,796 3,032 236 8.4
Other Programs 13,192 14,267 1,075 8.1
Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges 7,677 7,870 193 2.5
Total 101,998 107,927 5,929 5.8

Status of the Contingency Fund

The Contingency Fund is used to address spending pressures or fund program changes during the fiscal year. The funds within the Contingency Fund cannot be spent directly by the Province but must be transferred to government programs through Treasury Board Orders.

The Province started the 2025-26 fiscal year with a total of $3.0 billion in the Contingency Fund. In the first quarter, the Province transferred $11 million from the Contingency Fund to various programs. In the second quarter, the Province transferred $495 million from the Contingency Fund to various programs. This results in a remaining balance in the Contingency Fund, as of September 30, 2025, of $2.5 billion.

In the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, the Province added $2.0 billion to the Contingency Fund. The FAO expects that this top-up will be reflected in the government’s financial accounts in the third quarter of 2025-26.

Table 4 2025-26 transfers from the Contingency Fund, as of September 30, 2025, $ millions Source: FAO analysis of information provided by Treasury Board Secretariat.
Ministry/Program $ millions
Opening Contingency Fund Balance as of April 1, 2025 3,000
First Quarter Transfers to Ministries
Ministry of Natural Resources
Forestry Initiatives 11
Less: Total First Quarter Transfer to Ministries -11
Second Quarter Transfers to Ministries
Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness
Research Infrastructure Maintenance and Repairs 11
Research Infrastructure Renewal 7
Ministry of Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security
Capital Grants – Universities 46
Grants for University Operating Costs 24
Ministry of Emergency Preparedness and Response
Services – Emergency Management Ontario 99
Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks
Services – Environmental Compliance and Enforcement 2
Ministry of Francophone Affairs
Services – Francophone Affairs Co-ordination 1
Ministry of Natural Resources
Public Safety and Emergency Response (Operating Asset) 160
Public Protection 90
Public Safety and Emergency Response (Capital Asset) 25
Forestry Initiatives 6
Ministry of the Solicitor General
Grants for Fire Safety 10
Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Gaming
Agencies and Attractions Sector Support 15
Less: Total Second Quarter Transfers to Ministries -495
Contingency Fund Balance as of September 30, 2025 2,495

Footnotes

[1] In the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, the Province added $2.0 billion to the Contingency Fund. The FAO expects that this top-up will be reflected in the government’s financial accounts in the third quarter of 2025-26.

[2] Temporary spending authority is first granted by the Legislature through the Interim Appropriation Act, with final spending authority then granted through the Supply Act. Permanent spending authority is also granted through other legislation for a limited number of programs.

[3] To manage and monitor its program spending during the fiscal year, the Province divides its spending plan into planned spending by quarter, which reflects historical spending patterns, seasonality and other factors. For 2025-26, the FAO estimates that the Province plans to spend $52.0 billion in the first quarter, $54.3 billion in the second quarter, $56.8 billion in the third quarter and $69.1 billion in the fourth quarter.

[4] Operating grants to school boards includes the School Board Operating Grants, School Board Debt Service Costs, Education Property Tax Non-Cash Expense and Responsive Education Programs.

[5] Higher spending on Ministry of Public and Business Service Delivery and Procurement, Application and Information Technology Services in 2025-26 is due to a transfer of IT spending from various ministries.