Ontario Health Sector: 2026 Spending Plan Review

Publish date: September 23, 2026 ISSN 2562-4008
This report reviews the health sector spending plan as outlined in the 2026 Ontario Budget. Health sector spending consists of the combined spending by the Ministries of Health and Long-Term Care.
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About this document

Established by the Financial Accountability Officer Act, 2013, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) provides independent analysis on the state of the Province’s finances, trends in the provincial economy and related matters important to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

Prepared by: Lisa Barkova (Financial Analyst) under the direction of Matthew Gurnham (Director, Financial Analysis) and Luan Ngo (Chief Financial Analyst).

This report has been prepared with the benefit of publicly available information and information provided by the Ministries of Health, Long-Term Care and Finance, and Treasury Board Secretariat.

In keeping with the FAO’s mandate to provide the Legislative Assembly of Ontario with independent economic and financial analysis, this report makes no policy recommendations.

© King’s Printer for Ontario, 2026

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Ontario Health Sector: 2026 Spending Plan Review, Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2026.
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1. Summary

At the request of Members of Provincial Parliament, this report reviews the Government of Ontario’s (the Province’s) health sector spending plan as outlined in the 2026 Ontario Budget. Health sector spending consists of the combined spending by the Ministries of Health and Long-Term Care.

Spending Plan Overview

Spending Plan Analysis

Interprovincial Comparison

2. Introduction

This report reviews the Government of Ontario’s (the Province’s) health sector spending plan as outlined in the 2026 Ontario Budget. Health sector spending consists of the combined spending by the Ministries of Health and Long-Term Care.

This analysis was undertaken in response to research requests from Members of Provincial Parliament and is part of a series that reviews the 2026 spending plans for five ministries: Children, Community and Social Services; Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security; Education; Health; and Long-Term Care.

The report is organized as follows:

For additional information on the Ministries of Health and Long-Term Care’s 2026-27 spending plan, see the FAO’s 2026-27 Expenditure Estimates Dashboard, which allows users to review the ministries’ 2026-27 Expenditure Estimates to the standard account level of detail and compare 2026-27 requested spending against spending between 2021-22 and 2025-26.

3. Spending Plan Overview

In the 2026 Ontario Budget, the Province projects that health sector spending will increase from $97.1 billion in 2025-26 to $106.7 billion in 2028-29, representing an average annual growth rate of 3.2 per cent. This is a significantly slower pace than the 7.4 per cent average annual growth over the previous three years from 2022-23 to 2025-26.

Figure 3.1 Health sector spending plan in the 2026 Ontario Budget

Note: Historical values are not restated for program transfers or reclassifications, if any. 2025-26 value is an FAO estimate of unaudited spending and may contain differences from the final audited spending reported in the 2025-26 Public Accounts of Ontario.

Source: Ontario Public Accounts, the 2026 Ontario Budget and FAO analysis.

Accessible version
2022-23 to 2025-26

Historical

2025-26 to 2028-29

2026 Ontario Budget

7.4 3.2
Historical 2026 Ontario Budget
Historical 2022-23 78.5
Historical 2023-24 85.5
Historical 2024-25 91.6
Historical 2025-26 97.1
2026 Budget Outlook 2026-27 101.2
2026 Budget Outlook 2027-28 103.5
2026 Budget Outlook 2028-29 106.7

For context, over the 36-year period from 1990-91 to 2025-26, health sector spending grew at an average annual rate of 5.1 per cent.[2] The Province’s health sector spending plan in the 2026 budget calls for slower spending growth compared to the 36-year average and if achieved, would be the slowest three-year growth rate since 2014-15 to 2017-18.

2026 Spending Plan Compared to 2025 Spending Plan

Compared to the health sector spending plan in the 2025 Ontario Budget, the health sector spending plan in the 2026 Ontario Budget has increased by a total of $24.6 billion from 2025-26 to 2027-28. This includes additional spending of $6.0 billion in 2025-26, $8.8 billion in 2026-27 and $9.9 billion in 2027-28.

Figure 3.2 Health sector spending plan in the 2025 and 2026 Ontario Budgets

Note: Historical values are not restated for program transfers or reclassifications, if any. 2025-26 historical value is an FAO estimate of unaudited spending and may contain differences from the final audited spending reported in the 2025-26 Public Accounts of Ontario.

Source: Ontario Public Accounts, 2025 Ontario Budget, 2026 Ontario Budget and FAO analysis.

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Historical 2025 Ontario Budget 2026 Ontario Budget
2022-23 78.5
2023-24 85.5
2024-25 91.6
2025-26 97.1 91.1 97.1
2026-27 92.4 101.2
2027-28 93.6 103.5
2028-29 106.7

Spending Plan Compared to Cost Drivers

At the request of the Members of Provincial Parliament, the FAO estimated health sector spending over the next three years that would be required to maintain 2025-26 service levels. Also known as a cost driver projection, this scenario does not recommend how spending should change but serves as a benchmark to show whether the 2026 budget’s health sector spending plan is likely to maintain, improve or reduce the quality and accessibility of health services.

Overall, the FAO estimates that health sector spending would need to grow by an average annual rate of 4.4 per cent over the next three years to maintain current health sector service levels. The FAO’s health sector cost driver projection incorporates three key factors:

Figure 3.3 Comparing health sector spending growth, FAO cost driver projection vs. 2026 Ontario Budget, 2025‑26 to 2028‑29

Source: 2026 Ontario Budget and FAO analysis.

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FAO Cost Driver Projection 2026 Ontario Budget
4.4 3.2

As noted above, in the 2026 budget, the Province projects that health sector spending will increase at an average annual rate of 3.2 per cent from 2025-26 to 2028-29. Compared to the FAO’s cost driver projection, this results in excess funding of $0.2 billion in 2026-27, and funding shortfalls of $2.0 billion in 2027-28 and $3.8 billion in 2028-29.

Figure 3.4 Comparing health sector spending projections, FAO cost driver projection vs. 2026 Ontario Budget

Note: Historical values are not restated for program transfers or reclassifications, if any. 2025-26 value is an FAO estimate of unaudited spending and may contain differences from the final audited spending reported in the 2025-26 Public Accounts of Ontario.

Source: Ontario Public Accounts, 2026 Ontario Budget and FAO analysis.

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Historical FAO Cost Driver Projection 2026 Ontario Budget
Historical 2022-23 78.5
Historical 2023-24 85.5
Historical 2024-25 91.6
Historical 2025-26 97.1
Projection 2026-27 100.9 101.2
Projection 2027-28 105.5 103.5
Projection 2028-29 110.5 106.7

The funding shortfall starting in 2027-28 means that, to maintain current service levels, the Province will need to implement health sector efficiencies (i.e., provide the same level of services with fewer resources) and/or commit additional funding beyond what was planned in the 2026 Ontario Budget.

4. Spending Plan Analysis

At the request of the Members of Provincial Parliament, the FAO estimated the potential impact of the health sector spending plan in the 2026 budget on select service level indicators. For information on other measures of health service levels, see Ontario Health, Health System Performance Reporting and Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), Health system performance measurement.

Hospital Beds

In 2025-26, there were 35,850 funded hospital beds in Ontario.[3] Based on the 2026 budget health sector spending plan, the FAO projects that there would be sufficient funding for 33,443 hospital beds in 2028‑29, a decrease of 2,407 funded hospital beds from 2025-26 levels.

On a per-capita basis, this represents a decline from 221 funded hospital beds per 100,000 Ontarians in 2025‑26 to 205 funded hospital beds per 100,000 Ontarians in 2028-29.[4]

Figure 4.1 Number of funded hospital beds per 100,000 Ontarians, 2016-17 to 2028-29

Note: Funded hospital beds represent hospital beds that have been allocated operating funding by the Province and are actively staffed and available to patients.

Source: FAO analysis of information provided by the Province, CIHI: Spending Trends in Health Service Delivery, 2014-2015 to 2023-2024 – Data Tables – Table 5: Hospital Beds Staffed and in Operation, and Ontario Health Coalition: Hospital Beds Staffed and in Operation Ontario 1990 to 2014.

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Historical 2026 Ontario Budget
Historical 2016-17 221
Historical 2017-18 222
Historical 2018-19 224
Historical 2019-20 224
Historical 2020-21 224
Historical 2021-22 230
Historical 2022-23 228
Historical 2023-24 221
Historical 2024-25 220
Historical 2025-26 221
2026 Ontario Budget 2026-27 220
2026 Ontario Budget 2027-28 213
2026 Ontario Budget 2028-29 205

Long-Term Care Beds

There were 82,128 long-term care beds in Ontario in 2025-26. Based on the 2026 budget health sector spending plan, the FAO projects that there would be sufficient funding for 88,324 long-term care beds in 2028‑29, an increase of 6,196 beds from 2025-26 levels.

On a per-capita basis, this represents a decline from 59 long-term care beds per 1,000 Ontarians aged 75 and over[5] in 2025-26 to 57 long-term care beds per 1,000 Ontarians aged 75 and over in 2028-29, as the projected growth rate in Ontarians aged 75 and over is expected to outpace the growth in the number of long‑term care beds.[6]

Figure 4.2 Number of long-term care beds per 1,000 Ontarians aged 75 and over, 2016-17 to 2028-29

Source: FAO analysis of information provided by the Province.

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Historical 2026 Ontario Budget
Historical 2016-17 79
Historical 2017-18 77
Historical 2018-19 74
Historical 2019-20 72
Historical 2020-21 70
Historical 2021-22 67
Historical 2022-23 64
Historical 2023-24 62
Historical 2024-25 59
Historical 2025-26 59
2026 Ontario Budget 2026-27 59
2026 Ontario Budget 2027-28 57
2026 Ontario Budget 2028-29 57

Nurses

Provincially funded nurses, which include registered nurses, nurse practitioners and licensed practical nurses, are employed in hospitals, long-term care homes, clinics and many other health care settings.

The FAO estimates that in 2025-26, there were 157,062 provincially funded nurses in the health sector. Based on the 2026 budget health sector spending plan, the FAO projects that there would be sufficient funding for 154,540 provincially funded nurses in 2028-29, a decrease of 2,522 provincially funded nurses from 2025‑26 levels.

On a per-capita basis, this represents a decline from 968 provincially funded nurses per 100,000 Ontarians in 2025-26 to 948 provincially funded nurses per 100,000 Ontarians in 2028-29.

Figure 4.3 Number of provincially funded nurses per 100,000 Ontarians, 2016-17 to 2028-29

Source: FAO analysis of information provided by the Province and CIHI: Nursing in Canada, 2025: Table 4a – Workforce of regulated nurses, by jurisdiction.

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Historical 2026 Ontario Budget
Historical 2016-17 895
Historical 2017-18 888
Historical 2018-19 892
Historical 2019-20 907
Historical 2020-21 909
Historical 2021-22 913
Historical 2022-23 912
Historical 2023-24 912
Historical 2024-25 930
Historical 2025-26 968
2026 Ontario Budget 2026-27 981
2026 Ontario Budget 2027-28 961
2026 Ontario Budget 2028-29 948

Personal Support Workers

Provincially funded personal support workers (PSWs) provide care in long-term care homes, hospitals, and home and community care.

The FAO estimates that in 2025-26, there were 121,592 provincially funded PSWs in the health sector. Based on the 2026 budget health sector spending plan, the FAO projects that the number of provincially funded PSWs would increase by 3,455, reaching 125,047 PSWs in 2028-29.

On a per-capita basis, this represents an increase from 750 provincially funded PSWs per 100,000 Ontarians in 2025-26 to 767 provincially funded PSWs per 100,000 Ontarians in 2028-29.

Figure 4.4 Number of provincially funded personal support workers per 100,000 Ontarians, 2021-22 to 2028-29

Source: FAO analysis of information provided by the Province.

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Historical 2026 Ontario Budget
Historical 2021-22 684
Historical 2022-23 689
Historical 2023-24 725
Historical 2024-25 735
Historical 2025-26 750
2026 Ontario Budget 2026-27 783
2026 Ontario Budget 2027-28 767
2026 Ontario Budget 2028-29 767

Physicians

Physicians provide care in their own practices, as well as in hospitals and community settings.

There were 37,713 physicians in Ontario in 2025-26.[7] Based on the 2026 budget health sector spending plan, the FAO projects that the Province could fund 3,761 additional physicians, reaching 41,474 physicians in 2028-29, provided that compensation levels under the current physician services agreement and other practice conditions are sufficient to attract, license and retain the additional number of physicians.[8]

On a per-capita basis, this represents an increase from 233 physicians per 100,000 Ontarians in 2025-26 to 254 physicians per 100,000 Ontarians in 2028-29.[9]

In the 2025 Ontario Budget, the government committed to connecting two million more Ontarians to a family doctor or primary care team by 2029. Based on the FAO’s projection, the funding available under the 2026 budget health sector spending plan would be sufficient to achieve this objective.

Figure 4.5 Number of provincially funded physicians per 100,000 Ontarians, 2016-17 to 2028-29

Note: The FAO’s projection represents the number of physicians that the 2026 Ontario Budget’s health sector spending plan could support, provided that compensation levels under the existing physician services agreement and other practice conditions are sufficient to attract, license and retain the funded number of physicians.

Source: FAO analysis of Ontario Physician Reporting Centre (OPRC), Physicians in Ontario Longitudinal Dataset (2009-2025), 2026.

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Historical 2026 Ontario Budget
Historical 2016-17 213
Historical 2017-18 216
Historical 2018-19 218
Historical 2019-20 217
Historical 2020-21 219
Historical 2021-22 222
Historical 2022-23 225
Historical 2023-24 220
Historical 2024-25 223
Historical 2025-26 233
2026 Ontario Budget 2026-27 240
2026 Ontario Budget 2027-28 248
2026 Ontario Budget 2028-29 254

5. Interprovincial Comparison

At the request of the Members of Provincial Parliament, this chapter compares Ontario’s age-standardized[10] per capita health spending and select service levels with those of other provinces. The information in this chapter is for the 2023 calendar year, the latest year with comparable data.

Total Provincial Health Sector Funding

In 2023, Ontario had the second lowest age-standardized per capita health sector funding among the provinces. Ontario’s total provincial health sector funding was $5,425 per person, $379 below the national average of $5,804. Compared to the next three largest provinces by population, Ontario’s funding was lower than in Quebec ($5,755), British Columbia ($6,124) and Alberta ($6,449).

Figure 5.1 Age-standardized per capita total provincial health sector funding by province in 2023

Note: Canada average excludes territories.

Source: FAO analysis of CIHI: National Health Expenditure Trends, 2025: Data Tables – Series E1.

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Province Dollars per Person, Adjusted for Population Age
NB 5,262
ON 5,425
QC 5,755
PE 5,985
BC 6,124
NS 6,190
SK 6,217
MB 6,417
AB 6,449
NL 7,034
Canada Average 5,804

Provincial Hospital Funding

In 2023, Ontario had the lowest age-standardized per capita provincial funding for hospitals at $1,967, compared to the Canadian average of $2,098. Quebec ($1,980) and British Columbia ($2,057) were also below the Canadian average, while Alberta ($2,440) was above the Canadian average.

Figure 5.2 Age-standardized per capita provincial funding for hospitals in 2023

Note: Canada average excludes territories.

Source: FAO analysis of CIHI: National Health Expenditure Trends, 2025: Data Tables – Series E2.

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Province Dollars per Person, Adjusted for Population Age
ON 1,967
QC 1,980
BC 2,057
PE 2,245
NL 2,253
NB 2,338
SK 2,406
AB 2,440
MB 2,563
NS 2,715
Canada Average 2,098

Hospital Beds

In 2023, Ontario had 229 hospital beds per age-standardized 100,000 population, which was below the national average of 245 hospital beds. This placed Ontario ahead of British Columbia (224) but below Alberta (279).

Figure 5.3 Age-standardized number of hospital beds per 100,000 population by province in 2023

* Excludes Quebec as the province does not report hospital-based long-term care beds (referred to as chronic care beds in Ontario) to CIHI. These beds are distinct from long-term care beds in residential facilities.

** Excludes Saskatchewan as CIHI does not report mental health, rehabilitation and rated bed capacity for this province. Note: Canada average excludes Quebec, Saskatchewan and territories.

Source: FAO analysis of CIHI: Spending Trends in Health Service Delivery, 2014-2015 to 2023-2024 – Data Tables – Table 5: Hospital Beds Staffed and in Operation.

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Province Beds per 100,000 Population, Adjusted for Population Age
QC NA*
SK NA**
BC 224
ON 229
PE 250
AB 279
NB 282
NS 282
MB 321
NL 358
Canada Average 245

Spending on Physicians

In 2023, Ontario had above average age-standardized per capita spending on physicians, at $1,174 per person. Ontario’s spending on physicians was higher than spending by British Columbia ($1,173) and Quebec ($946) but lower than spending by Alberta ($1,408).

Figure 5.4 Age-standardized per capita spending on physicians by province in 2023

Note: Canada average excludes territories.

Source: FAO analysis of CIHI: National Health Expenditure Trends, 2025: Data Tables – Series E4.

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Province Dollars per Person, Adjusted for Population Age
NB 906
NL 917
QC 946
NS 981
BC 1,173
ON 1,174
PE 1,204
MB 1,284
AB 1,408
SK 1,451
Canada Average 1,145

Number of Physicians

In 2023, Ontario had the second lowest number of physicians among the provinces, after adjusting for population and population age, with 225 physicians per 100,000 population. Ontario was below the Canadian average (242), Quebec (250), Alberta (256) and British Columbia (265).

Figure 5.5 Age-standardized number of physicians per 100,000 population by province in 2023

Note: Canada average excludes territories. The physician count reported in this chapter differs from the number presented in Chapter 4 because it is based on CIHI data rather than OPRC data. CIHI’s standardized national methodology supports interprovincial comparisons, while OPRC data are used for Ontario-specific workforce analysis. As a result, physician counts may differ between the two sources.

Source: FAO analysis of CIHI: Supply, Distribution and Migration of Physicians in Canada, 2001 to 2024 – Historical Data.

Accessible version
Province Physicians per 100,000 Population, Adjusted for Population Age
PE 207
ON 225
MB 229
SK 231
NL 234
NS 242
NB 245
QC 250
AB 256
BC 265
Canada Average 242

Public Drug Spending

In 2023, Ontario ranked second among the provinces for age-standardized per capita public drug spending, at $454 per person, above the national average of $366. Ontario was second only to Alberta ($495) and ahead of British Columbia ($244) and Quebec ($276).

Figure 5.6 Age-standardized per capita public drug spending by province in 2023

Note: Canada average excludes territories.

Source: FAO analysis of CIHI: National Health Expenditure Trends, 2025: Data Tables – Series E6.

Accessible version
Province Dollars per Person, Adjusted for Population Age
BC 244
NB 269
QC 276
PE 284
NS 304
NL 308
SK 331
MB 393
ON 454
AB 495
Canada Average 366

Footnotes

[1] The projected increase represents the number of additional physicians that planned funding could support and not necessarily the number who will enter or remain in practice. Achieving this increase would depend on compensation and broader practice conditions being sufficient to attract, license and retain the required number of physicians.

[2] FAO, Government Spending Trends: 1990 to 2023 and FAO calculations.

[3] Funded hospital beds represent hospital beds that have been allocated operating funding by the Province and are actively staffed and available to patients.

[4] For a long-term historical analysis of the number of hospital beds in Ontario, see FAO, Government Spending Trends: 1990 to 2023.

[5] Over 90 per cent of long-term care residents are aged 75 and over, CIHI, Profile of Residents in Residential and Hospital-Based Continuing Care, 2023–2024, Table 3.

[6] For a long-term historical analysis of the number of long-term care beds in Ontario, see FAO, Government Spending Trends: 1990 to 2023.

[7] Ontario Physician Reporting Centre, Physicians in Ontario Longitudinal Dataset (2009-2025) – Hamilton, ON: OPRC; 2026.

[8] Unlike nurses and PSWs, physicians are typically not direct employees of the Province. Instead, they are largely independent practitioners who are mainly paid through the Ontario Health Insurance Program (OHIP), under agreements negotiated between the Ministry of Health and the Ontario Medical Association (OMA). Consequently, the projected increase represents the number of additional physicians that planned funding could support and not necessarily the number who will enter or remain in practice. Achieving this increase would depend on compensation and broader practice conditions being sufficient to attract, license and retain the required number of physicians.

[9] For a long-term historical analysis of the number of physicians in Ontario, see FAO, Government Spending Trends: 1990 to 2023.

[10] Spending and service levels have been age-standardized to account for differences in population age structures across provinces. Because older populations typically require more health care services, age standardization adjusts spending and service level estimates as if each province had the same age distribution as Ontario, enabling more meaningful comparisons.