CIPI: Buildings – Assessing the financial impacts of extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles on public buildings in Ontario

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1 | Introduction and context

In June 2019, a Member of Provincial Parliament asked the FAO to analyze the costs that climate change impacts could impose on Ontario’s provincial and municipal infrastructure, and how those costs could impact the long-term budget outlook of the province. In response to this request, the FAO launched its Costing Climate Change Impacts to Public Infrastructure project (CIPI).

In the first two phases of the project, the FAO assessed the composition and state of repair of provincial and municipal infrastructure, with findings released in November 2020 and in August 2021. This report is the first of three sector reports that present the climate change costing results in the final phase of the project.

This report examines the impacts of changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles on the long-term costs of maintaining public buildings in a state of good repair. The project’s context, methodology and data sources are described in the FAO’s CIPI project backgrounder and methodology report.[1] Detailed information on the engineering aspects of the CIPI project can be found in WSP’s report.[2] Additional costing results and data downloads can be found on the FAO website.

2 | Summary

Ontario’s provincial and municipal governments own a large portfolio of public buildings and facilities

The FAO estimates that Ontario’s provincial and municipal governments currently own and manage about $254 billion[3] of public buildings and facilities. These assets include hospitals, schools, colleges, administration buildings, correctional facilities, courthouses, transit facilities, social housing, tourism, culture and sport facilities, as well as potable, storm water and wastewater facilities.

Keeping assets in a state of good repair helps to maximize the benefits of public infrastructure in the most cost-effective manner over time. This requires annual operations and maintenance (O&M) spending, as well as intermittent capital spending either to rehabilitate part(s) of an asset or to fully renew it at the end of its service life. The cost of maintaining Ontario’s portfolio of public buildings and facilities in a state of good repair would be around $10.1 billion[4] per year on average, totalling about $799 billion over the rest of the 21st century (2022-2100).[5] These projected “baseline costs” are what would have occurred in a stable climate.

Climate change will have a significant impact on the cost of maintaining public buildings in the absence of adaptation

To ensure safety and reliability, public infrastructure is designed, built and maintained to withstand a specific range of climate conditions typically based on historic climate data. However, extreme rainfall and extreme heat are projected to become more frequent and intense, while shorter winters will somewhat lower the annual number of freeze-thaw cycles. Taken together, the FAO estimates these hazards will add roughly $6 billion to the costs of maintaining public buildings and facilities in a state of good repair over the remainder of this decade (2022-2030).

Over the long term, the extent of global climate change will influence the severity of these climate hazards and their impacts to public buildings. In a medium emissions scenario,[6] the cumulative cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public buildings in a state of good repair will increase by $66 billion (8.2 per cent increase over baseline), or $0.8 billion per year on average over the rest of the 21st century. However, in a high emissions scenario,[7] cumulative costs would increase by $116 billion (14.5 per cent increase over baseline), or $1.5 billion per year on average over the rest of the century. These results reflect higher capital expenses from accelerated deterioration and higher O&M expenses.

Adapting public buildings to withstand these climate hazards will require significant investment

To explore the financial implications of adapting Ontario’s public buildings to withstand extreme rainfall and extreme heat,[8] the FAO costed two adaptation approaches: a reactive strategy and a proactive strategy.

The reactive strategy assumes public buildings are rebuilt to withstand late-century projections of extreme rainfall and extreme heat when they are replaced at the end of their service life, with 77 per cent of public buildings adapted by 2100.[9] Reactively adapting Ontario’s public buildings to withstand extreme rainfall and heat in the medium emissions scenario would cost an additional $52 billion (6.5 per cent over baseline) cumulatively to 2100, while adapting to climate conditions in the high emissions scenario would instead cost $91 billion (11.4 per cent over baseline).

The proactive strategy assumes most public buildings are retrofitted before the end of their service lives to withstand late-century projections of extreme rainfall and extreme heat, and nearly all assets are adapted by 2060. Proactively adapting this portfolio to withstand extreme rainfall and heat in the medium emissions scenario would cost an additional $54 billion (6.7 per cent over baseline) cumulatively to 2100, while adapting to climate conditions in the high emissions scenario would instead cost $104 billion (13.1 per cent over baseline).[10]

Adaptation will modestly lower the direct financial costs to provincial and municipal governments of maintaining public buildings over the long term

The financial impact of these climate hazards will be material to the province and municipalities regardless of which asset management strategy is pursued. However, this study only includes a narrow range of financial costs directly related to maintaining public buildings and facilities in a state of good repair. The societal costs of planned and unplanned service disruptions were beyond the scope of this report but would be significant.[11] These impacts would be much more significant for buildings that are not adapted.

Even within the narrow range of cost impacts analyzed in this report, the costs to governments in the adaptation strategies are modestly lower than the no adaptation strategy.[12] The comparative benefits of adaptation would be more significant if the indirect costs were incorporated.

Determining the most cost-effective strategy for an individual asset would require comparing the costs of different adaptation strategies over its service life, for a broader range of climate hazards and societal costs, and with the asset’s specific circumstances taken into consideration. While the portfolio level costing results in this report are not intended to inform asset-specific management decisions, the results show that changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will carry significant budgetary impacts for the province and Ontario’s municipalities.

3 | The long-term costs of maintaining public buildings

This chapter presents the scope of public buildings and facilities considered in this report, followed by a discussion of the costs necessary to maintain these assets in a state of good repair. Next, the chapter estimates the long-term infrastructure costs required to maintain Ontario’s buildings and facilities in a state of good repair to 2100 under a stable climate. The purpose of this chapter is to establish a baseline projection of infrastructure costs. In later chapters, this baseline is then be compared to projections that account for certain climate change hazards.

Ontario has a large portfolio of public buildings and facilities

This report focuses on buildings and facilities owned and controlled by provincial and municipal governments. The FAO estimates that the current replacement value[13] (CRV) of these assets is $254 billion in 2022, representing roughly 42 per cent of the total infrastructure examined within the CIPI project.[14]

Public buildings and facilities valued at $141 billion (55 per cent) are owned by the provincial government, while the remaining $113 billion (45 per cent) are owned by Ontario’s municipalities.[15] Provincial assets include:

• hospitals
• schools
• colleges
• government office buildings
• correctional facilities and courthouses
• transit facilities

Municipal assets include:

• social housing
• government administration buildings
• tourism buildings and facilities
• culture, recreation, and sport facilities
• potable water, storm water and wastewater management buildings and facilities
• transit facilities

Maintaining a large portfolio of buildings requires significant spending

Keeping assets in a state of good repair helps to maximize the benefits of public infrastructure in the most cost-effective manner over time. To be maintained in a state of good repair, assets require annual operations and maintenance (O&M) spending, as well as intermittent capital spending either to rehabilitate[16] an asset or renew it at the end of its service life.[17]

The age and condition of public buildings in Ontario’s portfolio vary significantly. To project the costs of maintaining public buildings in a state of good repair, the FAO gathered and estimated asset-specific information on age, condition and current replacement value, as well as the general performance standards used to evaluate if an asset is in a state of good repair. Using an infrastructure deterioration model based on modelling techniques developed by the Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure,[18] the FAO projected the capital and operating expenses necessary to maintain the current portfolio[19] of public buildings in a state of good repair to 2100.

These long-term O&M, rehabilitation and renewal spending estimates form the baseline projection against which the climate change costing scenarios developed in later chapters will be compared. The baseline projection represents the infrastructure costs that would have been required to maintain public buildings in a stable climate.[20]

While O&M expenses occur annually, the timing of rehabilitation and renewal expenses depends on a building’s age and condition. Figure 3-2 shows the annual proportion of Ontario’s public buildings (by CRV) that would require rehabilitation or renewal spending over the rest of this century if the funding necessary to bring and maintain the current portfolio of public buildings into a state of good repair were made available and spent in a timely manner.[21] On average, around six per cent of buildings will require rehabilitation or renewal every year.

$799 billion needed to maintain public buildings until 2100 in a stable climate

Bringing Ontario’s existing suite of public buildings into a state of good repair and maintaining them until 2100 would cost $799 billion cumulatively in a stable climate, or an average of about $10 billion per year. This baseline cost includes $296 billion in cumulative O&M expense and $503 billion in rehabilitation and renewal expense to 2100.

The costs to maintain public buildings in a state of good repair reflect both the value of assets owned, as well as the condition, age and performance standards of each individual asset under management. For example, assets in poorer condition require more capital spending to bring them into a state of good repair. Likewise, older assets must be renewed sooner than newer assets.

4 | The cost of key climate hazards to public buildings

Climate change is associated with many hazards to public infrastructure, which can take the form of extreme weather events or long-term chronic impacts, that affect asset deterioration. Ontario has been subject to costly floods and ice storms and is also prone to droughts, intense rainfall, wildfires, windstorms, heatwaves and permafrost melt.[22] This project focuses on only three climate hazards – extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles – as they were determined to have broad and financially material impacts to public infrastructure and can be projected with a reasonable degree of scientific confidence.[23]

This chapter summarizes how projected changes in these climate hazards would impact Ontario’s public buildings in the absence of adaptation measures. It then presents the FAO’s estimates of the additional long-term costs these climate hazards would impose on Ontario’s portfolio of public buildings in medium and high emissions scenarios.

Extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles

To ensure safety and reliability, infrastructure is designed, built and maintained to withstand a specific range of climate conditions typically based on historic climatic loads.[24] However, extreme rainfall and extreme heat are projected to increase in the future, while freeze-thaw cycles are projected to decrease.

Extreme rainfall can often exceed the capacity of infrastructure drainage systems and lead to flooding, water infiltration or increased erosion of infrastructure components.[25] Extreme rainfall events can impact buildings as acute hazards that occur rarely (for example the 100-year rainfall event).[26] Extreme rainfall can also cause chronic impacts, such as ongoing moisture or water infiltration. This hazard includes the impacts of pluvial flooding (i.e., overwhelmed drainage systems) but not the impacts of fluvial flooding (i.e., riverine or river flooding).

Extreme heat events are extended spells of high temperatures. As heatwaves increase in frequency and duration, temperatures will more frequently exceed the capacity of infrastructure or its components, increase the stress on building materials, and impact operations and maintenance. Extreme temperatures are both a chronic and an acute hazard. For example, thermal expansion in brick walls during a high-magnitude heat wave is an acute impact, while the accelerated deterioration of air conditioning equipment used more frequently in warmer conditions is a chronic impact.

Freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) are fluctuations between freezing and non-freezing temperatures that cause water to freeze (and expand) or melt (and contract). The melting and re-freezing of water accelerates the weathering of building materials, and damages infrastructure components that are exposed to the atmosphere. FTC damage is caused by the combination of temperature fluctuations around zero degrees and the presence of water.[27] FTCs can be self reinforcing. When one occurs, it can leave cracks or gaps in building materials, creating the potential for further water infiltration and another cycle of freezing and expansion. “Deep” FTCs typically occur in winter and are defined as those that occur when the daily average temperature is less than 0°C.

Changes in these three climate hazards will impact Ontario’s public buildings and facilities in different ways. A typical building has many components, including its structure, envelope, equipment and finishing, mechanical and electrical systems, as well as civil infrastructure and landscaping. Figure 3‑1 describes these key building components and provides examples of the interaction between those components and the three climate hazards.

Most climate hazards to public buildings will increase

The impacts of changing climate hazards on Ontario’s public buildings depend on the path of global greenhouse gas emissions and the extent of global mean temperature increases. The FAO costed climate impacts to public buildings for three global emissions scenarios:

Figure 4-2 presents a brief description of the projected changes in some of the climate indicators used to represent these hazards. Appendix B contains a full description of all relevant climate variables to public buildings, and their trends in all scenarios

Climate hazards are raising the cost of maintaining public buildings

If a no adaptation strategy is adopted for all public buildings in Ontario, extreme heat and extreme rainfall will cause the largest financial impact, with declining freeze-thaw cycles marginally offsetting the costs.[31] The FAO estimates that in the absence of adaptation, the cumulative cost of maintaining public buildings in a state of good repair will increase by about $6 billion[32] relative to baseline spending in a stable climate over the remainder of this decade (2022-2030).

Over the long term, the extent of global climate change will influence the severity of these climate hazards and their impacts to public buildings. In the medium emissions scenario, the cumulative cost of maintaining the existing portfolio of public buildings in a state of good repair will increase by $66 billion (8.2 per cent increase over baseline), or $0.8 billion per year on average over the rest of the 21st century. However, in a high emissions scenario, cumulative costs would instead be $116 billion higher (14.5 per cent), or $1.5 billion per year on average over the rest of the century.[33]

These cumulative costs could vary given the range of climate projections in each global emissions scenario. In the medium emissions scenario, the FAO estimates that by 2100, additional infrastructure-related costs of maintaining Ontario’s public buildings could range from $29 billion (3.7 per cent higher than baseline) to $134 billion (16.8 per cent) by 2100. In the high emissions scenario, these additional costs could range from $55 billion (6.9 per cent) to $232 billion (29 per cent) by 2100.

5 | Adapting public buildings to climate hazards

Chapter 4 described the financial impact of not adapting public buildings to the projected changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles. In practice, buildings can be adapted to withstand these impacts – ensuring that assets perform to the same standards for which they were initially designed and do not suffer accelerated deterioration or higher O&M expenses.

This chapter discusses different forms of adaptation, defines the scope of adaptation analyzed in this report, and estimates a range of costs to adapt Ontario’s portfolio of public buildings to withstand the late-century climate projections for extreme rainfall and extreme heat[34] in the medium and high emissions scenarios.

Adapting public buildings can help prevent the impacts of climate hazards

Adapting public infrastructure to extreme rainfall and extreme heat could take many forms. A few examples include:

• Updating infrastructure design parameters to a higher standard.[36]
• Local jurisdictions in Ontario exploring adaptation options and adopting measures, including building code interpretations, general guidance for designers and operators, certification systems, and pilot projects.[37]
• Enhancing the environment around a building to increase its ability to cope with climate hazards. This could be done at large or small scales and involve the use of green infrastructure. For example, the Port Lands Flood Protection Project is expected to provide flood resiliency to 290 hectares of Toronto’s southeastern downtown that sit in the Don River floodplain.[38] To flood protect the Port Lands, the majority of land within the floodplain will be raised by a minimum of one to three metres. The project also incorporates green infrastructure, including the creation of wetlands and marshes, through which water will be directed during very large floods.
• Changing the way assets are managed, for example, changing the frequency of operations and maintenance schedules.[39]

Adaptation can include energy efficiency improvements to help reduce emissions. For example, the federal government is investing $182 million to increase energy efficiency and address climate change by improving how homes and buildings are designed, renovated and constructed. [40]

In the FAO’s framework, adaptation is modelled as an alteration of a building’s physical components to prevent damage costs caused by changes in extreme rainfall and heat. Figure 5-2 presents some examples of adaptation measures for each building component.[41]

The costs of each adaptation strategy vary based on the approach taken

Adapting Ontario’s public buildings will be expensive

Under the reactive adaptation strategy, maintaining Ontario’s public buildings in a state of good repair would cost an additional $52 billion (6.5 per cent over baseline) cumulatively in the medium emissions scenario to 2100. In the high emissions scenario, the costs would instead increase by $91 billion (11.4 per cent over baseline).

Under the proactive adaptation strategy, maintaining the portfolio would cost an additional $54 billion (6.7 per cent over baseline) cumulatively in the medium emissions scenario to 2100. In the high emissions scenario, the costs would instead increase by $104 billion (13.1 per cent over baseline).[45]

Under a proactive adaptation strategy, the cumulative costs over the next four decades (2022-2060) are significantly higher compared to the reactive adaptation strategy. This is because all assets are adapted by the 2060s under the proactive strategy while only about one-third of assets are adapted under the reactive strategy by the same period. In addition, most adaptations are done through retrofits, which are more expensive than renewal adaptations.

By the end of the century, the cumulative costs of the proactive strategy are higher than those of the reactive strategy. This reflects the fact that all buildings are adapted under the proactive strategy (many through more expensive retrofits), while under the reactive strategy only 77 per cent of assets are adapted by 2100.[46]

These cumulative costs could vary given the range of climate projections in each global emissions scenario.[47] In the medium emissions scenario, costs across both strategies range from a low of $22 billion (2.8 per cent higher than baseline) to $108 billion (13.5 per cent higher than baseline). In the high emissions scenario, cumulative costs across both strategies range from a low of $44 billion (5.5 per cent higher than baseline) to $174 billion (21.8 per cent higher than baseline).

6 | Comparing the costs of different asset management strategies

Chapters 4 and 5 examined the costs of maintaining assets in a state of good repair in the presence of climate change under three asset management strategies: no adaptation, reactive adaptation and proactive adaptation. None of the strategies presented in this report are meant to be a precise representation of future costs, and the portfolio level costing results are not intended to inform asset-specific management decisions. These strategies were designed to estimate the scale of the budgetary impact that changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles could impose on the province and municipalities over the rest of the century.

This chapter compares cost estimates across the three asset management strategies and discusses the difference in cost profiles between them. The chapter then discusses the factors that were beyond the scope of the FAO’s analysis but are relevant in determining the most cost-effective strategy for managing Ontario's public buildings in a changing climate.

Adapting public buildings could modestly lower the direct infrastructure costs for the province and municipalities

Changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will increase the cost of maintaining Ontario’s public buildings in a state of good repair regardless of whether buildings are adapted. However, the timing of when additional costs are incurred as well as the proportion of buildings adapted vary between the different adaptation strategies.

Figure 6‑1 shows how the cumulative cost grows under the three strategies in different emissions scenarios. Under the no adaptation strategy, additional costs accumulate consistently over the projection as extreme rainfall and extreme heat become more frequent and intense. The costs have a similar profile under the reactive adaptation strategy, with savings only starting to take effect after the 2070s.

In contrast, the proactive adaptation strategy sees substantial adaptation costs over the next four decades as all public buildings are adapted primarily through retrofits. This strategy sees much higher up-front costs compared to the no adaptation and reactive strategies. Under this strategy, all public buildings are adapted by the 2060s, leading to a much slower growth in costs in the late century.

In both the medium and high emissions scenarios, the FAO estimates that on an undiscounted basis, the cumulative costs by the end of the 21st century are the highest under the no adaptation strategy, followed by the proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation strategies.[48]

Although the differences between the cumulative costs under the three strategies are small relative to the increase in overall costs, the proportion of assets that remain vulnerable to changing climate hazards differs substantially. Under the proactive strategy, 100 per cent of assets are adapted by 2060. Under the reactive strategy, only 32 per cent of assets are adapted by 2060, rising to 77 per cent by the end of the century. Under the no adaptation strategy, all assets remain vulnerable to these changing climate hazards.

Table 6-1 presents a summary of the costs, timing and risk exposure of public buildings under the three different adaptation strategies.

Table 6-1 Summary of outcomes under different asset management strategies

Source: FAO.

	No Adaptation Strategy	Reactive Adaptation Strategy	Proactive Adaptation Strategy
When are buildings adapted?	No buildings are adapted	Buildings are adapted during renewal	Buildings are adapted at earliest opportunity
What are the additional costs incurred?	Costs from more rapid deterioration and higher O&M expenses	Costs from more rapid deterioration and higher O&M expenses prior to adaptation, costs to adapt assets at renewal, and costs to maintain higher value adapted assets in a state of good repair	Cost from more rapid deterioration and higher O&M expenses prior to adaptation, costs to adapt assets (including one-time retrofits or additional costs at renewal), and costs to maintain higher value adapted assets in a state of good repair
What is the timing of these additional costs?	Costs accumulate steadily over the century	Costs accumulate steadily but stabilize near the end of the century as majority of buildings are adapted and avoid costs from accelerated deterioration and higher O&M expenses	Costs increase rapidly to 2060 as all buildings are adapted, then accumulate more slowly as adapted assets avoid costs from accelerated deterioration and higher O&M expenses
What is the proportion of adapted buildings by 2100?	No assets are adapted	Roughly 77 per cent of assets are adapted	All assets are adapted

Other factors should be considered to assess the cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies

Costing of the three different asset management strategies at the portfolio level was designed to estimate the scale of the budgetary impact that changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles could impose on the province and municipalities over the rest of the century. However, to make asset-specific climate adaptation decisions, many other factors should be considered.

Determining the most cost-effective asset management strategy for a specific building would need to account for the asset’s individual characteristics (including age, condition and specific climate vulnerabilities) while balancing other priorities given the government’s budget constraints. A cost-effectiveness analysis would also need to consider a wider array of climate impacts over the entire useful life of an asset than the scope of the FAO’s analysis included.[49]

The following costs and benefits were not included within the FAO’s scope but are likely to have substantial financial impacts.

• More frequent rehabilitations or inspections could potentially disrupt regular service delivery, as would unplanned service disruptions. Such disruptions can impact productivity, community life, health and safety, especially for essential services such as hospitals, schools or water treatment facilities. In extreme cases, severe climate events could leave an asset entirely unusable, significantly impacting the asset owners and users.
• Damage to one part of a building could impact surrounding infrastructure and result in higher financial costs to other asset owners. The FAO’s approach treats the impact of each climate hazard independently and does not account for the significant inter-dependencies between infrastructure components. For example, heavy rainfall may damage a building’s envelope, but the building’s inability to manage the rainfall could also damage surrounding infrastructure.
• Since buildings have long useful lives, adaptation can reduce costs of climate hazards well beyond the 2100 projection horizon. These benefits accruing to the adaptation strategies are not included.

Incorporating these aspects into the analysis would show substantially larger benefits of adaptation.[50]

7 | Appendix

Appendix A : Scope of buildings and facilities analysed

Table 7-1 Provincial and municipal building infrastructure valued at $254 billion (current replacement value) was included in the scope of this report

Note: The age data presented are as of 2020.

Source: FAO analysis of municipal data and provincial data as detailed in Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2020 and 2021a.

Level of Government	Sector	Total CRV (2020$ billions)	Description
Provincial	Transit	$5	Ontario’s transit assets are owned by Metrolinx, which operates primarily in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area, and Ontario Northland Transportation Commission (ONTC), which operates primarily in northeastern Ontario. Metrolinx owns the GO Transit network, which includes about 70 stations as well as the UP Express network.
	Hospitals	$45	Hospital assets are owned by 141 hospital corporations in Ontario and controlled by the Province through the Ministry of Health (MOH). In total, there are 913 building assets totalling over 90 million square feet. On average, each building is approximately 47 years old. There are also 243 site component assets totalling over 9,000 square feet, with an average age of approximately 49 years.
	Schools	$67	Ontario’s primary and secondary schools are owned by 72 local school boards and four school-board authorities and controlled by the Province through the Ministry of Education (EDU). In total, there are approximately 5,000 school buildings totalling about 290 million square feet, with an average age of approximately 41 years.[51] There are also approximately 161 buildings used for administration purposes, totalling about 4.4 million square feet, with an average age of 43 years.
	Colleges	$11	Colleges sector assets are owned by Ontario’s 24 colleges and controlled by the Province through the Ministry of Colleges and Universities (MCU). In aggregate, college buildings total over 30 million square feet. On average, each campus includes about 1.3 million square feet and is 33 years old.
	Other	$13	Includes buildings such as government owned offices, special purpose buildings, correctional facilities, courthouses, etc. Other Provincial infrastructure assets are managed by various ministries but are consolidated mostly by the Ministry of Government and Consumer Services (MGCS) and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF). MGCS consolidates realty assets under the General Real Estate Portfolio (GREP), which provides real estate and project management services to other Provincial entities. GREP consolidates over 150 office buildings totalling about 10 million square feet, with an average size of about 65,000 square feet and age of 47 years. GREP also consolidates special purpose buildings, which include justice sector assets, such as correctional facilities and courthouses, and smaller assets, such as storage facilities.
Municipal	Transit-related	$2	Building assets owned by individual municipalities, such as passenger stations/terminals and transit shelters as well as maintenance and storage facilities.
	Water-related	$37	$13 billion in building-type potable water infrastructure such as water pump stations and water treatment facilities. $23 billion in building-type wastewater infrastructure such as wastewater lift stations, pump stations and treatment plants. $1 billion in building-type storm water infrastructure such as storm water drainage pump stations.
	Other buildings and facilities	$75	$23 billion in social housing, $19 billion in government administration buildings, $19 billion in tourism, culture and sport facilities, and approximately $13 billion in justice, health, social services, waste management, and other buildings and facilities.

Appendix B : Scope of climate variables used in costing analysis

The Canadian Centre for Climate Services provided the projections of all climate indicators used in the FAO’s costing analysis. Depending on the nature of the hazard’s interaction with specific building components, different climate indicators were used. See WSP’s report for a full description and rationale.[52]

Table 7-2 Projected change in relevant climate variables from 1976-2005 to 2071-2100, Ontario average

Note: Numbers are rounded. Median (50th percentile) projections of climate variables are presented, followed by ranges in parentheses. Ranges show the 10th and 90th percentile projections.

Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Services.

Climate Hazard	Variable	Definition	Low Emissions (RCP2.6)	Medium Emissions (RCP4.5)	High Emissions (RCP8.5)
Extreme Heat	Mean July maximum daily temperature	Monthly mean of daily maximum temperature in July	+1.8°C (+0.9 to 2.5°C)	+3.6°C (+1.9 to 3.8°C)	+6.5°C (+4.0 to 7.9°C)
	2.5% July daily maximum temperature	97.5th percentile of the distribution of daily maximum temperature in July	+1.9°C (+0.9 to 2.8°C)	+3.4°C (+2.4 to 4.3°C)	+6.5°C (+4.3 to 7.6°C)
	Annual number of cooling degree-days	Annual sum of daily degrees above 18°C	+71°C-days (+37 to 117°C-days)	+161°C-days (+86 to 212°C-days)	+381°C-days (+225 to 515°C-days)
Extreme Rainfall	Annual total precipitation	Annual total amount of precipitation received	+7.1 per cent (+4.0 to 7.8 per cent)	+9.8 per cent (+4.4 to 10.3 per cent)	+15.0 per cent (+6.2 to 18.2 per cent)
	IDF 15-min 1:10	Short duration rainfall intensity for a 15-minute 1-in-10-year event	+14.6 per cent (+9.8 to 23.5 per cent)	+24.9 per cent (+16.1 to 39.4 per cent)	+53.0 per cent (+38.0 to 78.2 per cent)
	IDF 24-hour 1:5	Short duration rainfall intensity for a 24-hour 1-in-5-year event	+14.6 per cent (+9.8 to 23.5 per cent)	+24.9 per cent (+16.1 to 39.4 per cent)	+53.0 per cent (+38.0 to 78.2 per cent)
	IDF 24-hour 1:100	Short duration rainfall intensity for a 24-hour 1-in-100-year event	+14.6 per cent (+9.8 to 23.5 per cent)	+24.9 per cent (+16.1 to 39.4 per cent)	+53.0 per cent (+38.0 to 78.2 per cent)
	IDF 24-hour 1:10	Short duration rainfall intensity for a 24-hour 1-in-10-year event	+14.6 per cent (+9.8 to 23.5 per cent)	+24.9 per cent (+16.1 to 39.4 per cent)	+53.0 per cent (+38.0 to 78.2 per cent)
Freeze-Thaw Cycles	Annual freeze-thaw cycles	Annual number of days with daily maximum temperature above 0°C and daily minimum temperature below 0°C	-5.5 per cent (-15.2 to 0.0 per cent)	-12.1 per cent (-19.2 to 0.0 per cent)	-15.1 per cent (-24.9 to 0.0 per cent)
	Deep freeze-thaw cycles	Annual number of days with daily maximum temperature above 0°C, daily minimum temperature below 0°C, and daily average temperature equal or less than 0°C	-2.3 per cent (-8.3 to +4.6 per cent)	-4.4 per cent (-10.8 to +4.8 per cent)	-4.9 per cent (-15.8 to +12.5 per cent)

Appendix C : The impact of climate hazards on public buildings

In the absence of adaptation measures, changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will impact the useful service life (USL) of public buildings. They will also impact the operations and maintenance (O&M) spending that would be required to maintain Ontario’s portfolio of public buildings in a state of good repair. However, adapting public buildings to withstand changes in these climate hazards will require investment.

To establish relationships between relevant climate indicators and key infrastructure costs, the FAO worked with WSP, a large engineering firm with expertise in all aspects of public sector infrastructure, including asset management, public infrastructure construction and operations, and climate change impacts. WSP estimated relationships between climate variables and infrastructure costs by surveying relevant engineering experts. To account for engineering uncertainty, WSP aggregated their responses and provided optimistic, pessimistic and most-likely cost relationships. This forms the basis on which the FAO estimated the additional costs of climate hazards to public buildings in Ontario.[53]

Based on these engineering relationships, this appendix describes how the three climate hazards are expected to impact the USL and O&M costs of Ontario’s public buildings over the rest of the 21st century. It also provides average adaptation cost estimates to adapt public buildings to the projected change in these climate hazards for each decade of the century.

While regional climate projections were used to develop the FAO’s cost estimates, the results presented in this appendix combine Ontario average climate projections with WSP’s cost relationships to illustrate the impacts. The engineering impacts by economic regions are available on the FAO website.

Climate hazards are reducing the useful service life of public buildings in the absence of adaptation

The FAO estimates that increases in extreme rainfall and heat are reducing the USL of public buildings in Ontario, resulting in faster deterioration than would otherwise have occurred in a stable climate. Over the long term, increases in extreme rainfall and heat will further reduce the USL of buildings in both emissions scenarios, although the impact is more significant in the high emissions scenario. While impacts to individual buildings may vary, these results should be interpreted as the average impact across the portfolio of public buildings in the project’s scope.

Trends in extreme rainfall primarily drive the reduction in USL for Ontario’s portfolio of public, followed by extreme heat. While declining trends in freeze-thaw cycles are estimated to prolong USLs, this is more than offset by the impact of the other hazards.

Climate hazards will increase O&M expenses for public buildings in the absence of adaptation

The FAO estimates that increases in extreme rainfall and heat are raising the O&M expenses of public buildings faster than would otherwise have occurred in a stable climate. Over the rest of the century, the required O&M expense to maintain public buildings in a state of good repair is projected to rise in both emissions scenarios, with a larger increase in the high emissions scenario.

Trends in extreme rainfall are expected to drive most of the projected increases in O&M expenses to public buildings, while extreme heat has a much smaller impact. Fewer freeze-thaw cycles in the future will modestly reduce O&M expenses to public buildings on average, although the impacts of other hazards more than offset this small reduction.

The cost of adapting public buildings to withstand these climate hazards increases with the extent of climate change

In the FAO’s framework, adaptation is modelled as an alteration of a building’s physical components to prevent more rapid deterioration and increased O&M expenses caused by changes in extreme rainfall and heat. Adaptation costs are considered one-time investments, occurring either as a retrofit during a building’s service life, or as part of a full redesign and rebuild at the end of its service life.

The costs of adaptation are also assumed to vary depending on the severity of the climate hazards the adaptation is designed to withstand. The more severe the climate hazard, the higher the expected adaptation costs. Based on WSP estimates, the cost of adapting a building during its service life through a retrofit is expected to be more expensive than the increased cost of designing and constructing a new climate-adapted building at the end of its service life.

While the FAO’s analysis only uses the cost estimates in the 2080s to estimate portfolio-wide adaptation costs, the full range of costs per decade is shown below to illustrate how these costs vary with changing climate hazards. Adaptation costs are expressed as a percentage of a building’s current replacement value. For example, if a building is valued at $1.0 million, and the adaptation is assumed to cost 5 per cent, the adaptation cost is $50,000. All costs are in 2020 real dollars.

Appendix D : Comparing the present value costs of different asset management strategies

When evaluating financial decisions, the timing of cash flows is important.[54] A standard approach to deal with the timing implications of spending is to discount costs into present value dollars using a discount rate. When discounted, costs incurred further in the future carry less weight relative to costs incurred sooner.

Chapter 6 showed that in undiscounted real dollars, the reactive adaptation strategy had a marginally lower cumulative additional cost over the projection, followed by the proactive adaptation strategy, while the no adaptation strategy had the highest costs. Figure 7-7 shows how the choice of discount rate impacts the present value of the total cost estimates for the median climate projections.

At discount rates above 1 or 1.5 per cent (depending on the emissions scenario), the proactive adaptation strategy is more expensive in present value terms compared to other strategies. At discount rates below 4.5 to 5.5 per cent, the reactive adaptation strategy remains the lower cost strategy in present value terms. However, above 4.5 to 5.5 per cent, the present value of the reactive adaptation and no adaptation strategies becomes similar. This happens as the cost profiles under both strategies are comparable until 2070s (see Figure 6‑1), and the savings from the reactive adaptation strategy after 2070s are more heavily discounted at higher rates.

The choice of a discount rate will affect the relative costs of each strategy. Rate selection will have intergenerational equity implications, as higher discount rates favour current generations over future ones. These strategies were not designed to inform asset-specific management decisions, but rather to estimate the scale of their budgetary impacts. The costs compared above do not incorporate the full spectrum of societal impacts these climate hazards will impose (as noted in Chapter 6), nor do they reflect the climate and engineering uncertainties discussed throughout the report.

Appendix E : Costing results in the low emissions scenario

While the report focused on the medium and high emissions scenario, Appendix E presents the costing results of the three adaptation strategies for all emissions scenarios.

In the low emissions scenario, a major and immediate turnaround in global climate policies is assumed. Emissions are projected to peak in the early 2020s and decline to zero by the 2080s, limiting the rise in global mean temperatures to 1.6°C (0.8 to 2.4°C) by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial average.[55] Even in the low emissions scenario, change in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will still have material financial impacts. Taken together they would raise the costs of maintaining Ontario’s public buildings by $43 billion (5.4 per cent above baseline) to 2100 in the absence of adaptation.

8 | References

• Asset Management BC. Climate Change and Asset Management: A Sustainable Service Delivery Primer.
• Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2020, Provincial Infrastructure.
• Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021a, Municipal Infrastructure.
• Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, 2021b, Costing Climate Change Impacts to Public Infrastructure: Project Backgrounder and Methodology.
• Government of Canada, 2019. Infrastructure Canada’s Climate Lens.
• Government of Canada, 2021. Natural Resources Canada Canada’s Climate Change Adaptation Platform.
• Government of Canada, 2020. Natural Resources Canada Energy Efficient Buildings RD&D
• Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, 2020, Estimating the benefits of Climate Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure (CRBCPI)
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Chapter 14: Economics of Adaptation.
• International Institute of Sustainable Development, 2021, Advancing the Climate Resilience of Canadian Infrastructure: A review of literature to inform the way forward.
• National Research Council of Canada, 2015. National Building Code of Canada 2015.
• Neumann, J.E., Chinowsky, P., Helman, J.et al., 2021, Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development.Climatic Change167,44.
• Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs, 2016. 2012 Building Code Compendium Volume 1. January 1, 2017 update.
• Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2018. Climate-Resilient Infrastructure.
• Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, 2021, PCIC Science Brief: Should the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario represent “business as usual?”.
• Warren, F. and Lulham, N., editors, 2021, Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues Report, Government of Canada.
• Waterfront Toronto, 2021. Port Lands Flood Protection Project.
• United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), 2021, Buildings and Climate Change Adaptation: A Call to Action.
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2011, Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Options.
• WSP, 2021, Costing climate change impacts and adaptation for provincial and municipal public infrastructure in Ontario, Deliverable #10 – Final Report, Toronto, Ontario. Report produced for Financial Accountability Office of Ontario.

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Glossary of Terms

List of Abbreviations

Term	Definition
AR5	Fifth Assessment Report
AR6	Sixth Assessment Report
CIPI	Costing Climate Change Impact on Public Infrastructure (project)
CRV	Current Replacement Value
IDF	Intensity-Duration-Frequency (Curve)
IPCC	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
O&M	Operation and Maintenance
RCP	Representative Concentration Pathway
SME	Subject-Matter Experts
USL	Useful Service Life
WSP	WSP Global Inc.

Definitions

Current Replacement Value: The current cost of rebuilding an asset with the equivalent capacity, functionality and performance.

Operations and Maintenance (O&M): The routine activities performed on an asset that maximize service life and minimize service disruptions.

Rehabilitation: Repairing part or most of an asset to extend its service life, without adding to its capacity, functionality or performance.

Renewal: Replacement of an existing asset, resulting in a new or as-new asset with an equivalent capacity, functionality and performance as the original asset. Renewal is different from rehabilitation, as renewal rebuilds the entire asset.

State of Good Repair: A performance standard which helps to maximize the benefits of public infrastructure in a cost-effective manner and ensures the assets operate in a condition that is considered acceptable from both an engineering and cost management perspective.

Stable Climate / Baseline Cost Projection: The operations and maintenance, rehabilitation, and renewal expense that would have been required to maintain public buildings in a state of good repair if climate indicators for extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles remain unchanged from their 1975-2005 average levels over the projection to 2100.

Rest of the Century: Refers to the 79 years from 2022 to 2100.

Acute Hazard: Severe climate hazards that occur rarely (such as the 100-year storm event).

Chronic Hazard: Climate hazards that are changing gradually.

Retrofit: A retrofit is an adaptation made during the building’s service life.

Adaptation: Adaptation is modelled as an alteration of a building’s physical components to prevent more rapid deterioration and increased O&M expenses caused by changes in extreme rainfall and heat. Adaptation can be done through retrofit while an asset is still in service or can be done at the time of renewal.

No Adaptation Atrategy / Damage Costs: An asset management strategy where public buildings are not adapted to changing climate hazards. Under this strategy, additional costs are incurred from increased deterioration and higher O&M expenses caused by climate change hazards.

Reactive Adaptation Strategy: An asset management strategy where public buildings are only adapted at the time of renewal to withstand changing climate condition.

Proactive Adaptation Strategy: An asset management strategy where public buildings are adapted at the first available opportunity to withstand changing climate condition. This occurs either during a building’s next major rehabilitation through a retrofit or at renewal, whichever comes first.

---

Graphical Descriptions

Figure 1-1 CIPI project structure and timeline

Source: FAO.

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Release Date	Report Title
Previously Released	Provincial Infrastructure
	Municipal Infrastructure
Fall 2021	CIPI Project Backgrounder and Methodology
	WSP Report
	Buildings and Facilities
2022	Public Transportation Infrastructure
	Public Water Infrastructure
	Summary Report

Figure 2-1 More extreme rainfall and heat will raise the cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public buildings in the absence of adaptation actions

Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario		2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Medium	Low	$0	$2	$5	$9	$13	$18	$24	$27	$29
	Median	$0	$5	$12	$22	$34	$43	$54	$64	$66
	High	$1	$10	$19	$49	$65	$88	$103	$126	$134
High	Low	$0	$2	$6	$12	$20	$28	$40	$49	$55
	Median	$0	$6	$14	$26	$42	$60	$77	$104	$116
	High	$1	$10	$20	$54	$77	$106	$143	$188	$232

Figure 2-2 The long-term cumulative costs of maintaining Ontario’s public buildings are modestly lower when adaptation actions are taken

Notes: he costs presented in this chart are in addition to the baseline costs over the same period.

Source: FAO.

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	Medium Emissions Scenario	High Emissions Scenario
No Adaptation	$66	$116
Reactive Adaptation	$52	$91
Proactive Adaptation	$54	$104

Figure 3-1 Ontario’s portfolio of public buildings has a Current Replacement Value of $254 billion

Note: CRV estimates are in real 2020 billion dollars. Percentage values refer to a sector’s share of total CRV.

Source: FAO.

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Level of Government	Sector	CRV	Share
Municipal	Other buildings and facilities	$75	29%
	Potable water, Storm water and Wastewater Facilities	$37	14%
	Transit	$2	1%
Provincial	Schools	$67	26%
	Hospitals	$45	18%
	Other provincial buildings	$13	5%
	Colleges	$11	4%
	Transit	$5	2%

Figure 3-2 Proportion of public buildings requiring rehabilitation or renewal each year

Source: FAO.

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Year	Proportion of Public Building Infrastructure by CRV Requiring Rehabilitation and Renewal Spending (Per Cent)	Average
2022	8	6
2023	1
2024	2
2025	4
2026	7
2027	2
2028	5
2029	3
2030	4
2031	3
2032	4
2033	3
2034	7
2035	4
2036	5
2037	7
2038	8
2039	9
2040	10
2041	5
2042	6
2043	5
2044	4
2045	4
2046	5
2047	11
2048	7
2049	4
2050	6
2051	8
2052	8
2053	11
2054	8
2055	5
2056	3
2057	6
2058	5
2059	3
2060	6
2061	9
2062	7
2063	6
2064	6
2065	3
2066	6
2067	9
2068	10
2069	4
2070	4
2071	8
2072	5
2073	7
2074	5
2075	8
2076	4
2077	4
2078	4
2079	4
2080	8
2081	10
2082	5
2083	3
2084	5
2085	4
2086	7
2087	4
2088	4
2089	13
2090	5
2091	4
2092	6
2093	5
2094	4
2095	7
2096	5
2097	6
2098	9
2099	10
2100	3

Figure 4-1 Examples of climate hazard impacts to key components of public building infrastructure

Note: For more examples of how these climate hazards impact building components, see WSP 2021.

Source: WSP.

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Building Component	Includes	Relevant climate hazards
Structure	Superstructure, foundation, and roof structure.	Humidity and freeze-thaw cycles impact the structure if cracks in the material are present. Greatest impact is likely to be experienced in exposed components where water accumulation is most likely.
Mechanical and Electrical	Boilers, air terminal AV box, ductwork, roof top air conditioner, panel board, motors, conduits, and wiring.	Extreme heat impacts mechanical and electrical systems, depending on the thermal isolation of the envelope and on the capacity of mechanical systems to maintain ambient air in specific conditions (temperature and humidity).
Equipment and Finishing	Painting, high-performance coatings, and staining, parking control, loading docks, and waste-handling.	Extreme rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles impact equipment and finishing, depending on the performance of the envelope. Exposure of interior finishes to leakage may result in mold development and impact the durability of the assets.
Envelope	Claddings, doors, glazing, and roof.	Extreme high temperature fosters thermal expansion of materials and decreasing building performance. Freeze-thaw cycles cause envelope deterioration and cracking. Extreme rainfall results in erosion of porous materials, corrosion, and damage from leakage.
Civil and Landscaping	Asphalt, concrete walkways and surfacing.	Extreme rainfall undermines the performance of water management systems—the primary civil infrastructure component of buildings. Extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles impact the asphalt and concrete elements.

Figure 4-2 Changing climate hazards in Ontario (Extreme Rainfall)

Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Services.

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	Low Emissions Scenario			Medium-Emissions Scenario			High-Emissions Scenario
Year	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High
1950	619	676	787	619	676	787	619	676	788
1951	618	684	734	618	684	734	618	684	734
1952	618	684	771	617	684	770	616	684	771
1953	639	663	727	639	663	727	639	663	727
1954	618	657	722	619	657	722	619	657	722
1955	610	672	730	611	672	730	611	672	730
1956	632	670	750	632	670	750	632	669	750
1957	606	659	730	609	659	730	607	659	730
1958	654	686	750	654	685	749	654	686	750
1959	635	709	782	635	709	782	635	710	782
1960	617	659	747	617	659	747	617	660	747
1961	588	676	740	588	676	740	588	676	740
1962	646	688	773	646	688	775	646	688	773
1963	607	684	749	607	684	748	607	684	748
1964	594	667	760	595	669	760	596	671	760
1965	610	657	745	610	656	745	610	657	745
1966	605	676	774	601	676	774	604	676	774
1967	630	670	726	630	672	726	630	672	725
1968	615	675	722	616	674	723	615	674	725
1969	608	697	770	608	697	770	608	697	770
1970	599	653	736	599	654	736	601	653	736
1971	616	692	750	616	692	750	616	692	750
1972	618	674	744	617	673	744	616	673	744
1973	592	692	764	592	692	763	592	692	764
1974	618	674	748	617	673	747	617	673	748
1975	623	670	744	624	670	743	623	670	742
1976	596	661	730	596	661	730	596	661	730
1977	607	694	771	607	694	771	607	694	771
1978	617	673	722	617	673	722	617	674	722
1979	625	674	761	622	674	761	622	674	761
1980	600	667	743	602	667	741	601	666	741
1981	633	679	758	632	679	758	632	679	758
1982	643	671	723	643	672	722	644	672	723
1983	576	658	724	577	658	723	577	659	722
1984	587	635	711	587	635	711	586	634	713
1985	623	656	730	624	656	731	624	656	730
1986	635	679	753	635	678	753	635	677	753
1987	628	689	779	629	690	780	629	689	778
1988	622	676	772	620	676	774	621	676	773
1989	592	698	769	594	697	769	593	696	769
1990	668	707	802	668	708	802	667	708	803
1991	642	659	757	641	659	759	642	658	758
1992	591	648	719	591	648	719	590	647	720
1993	602	663	720	602	661	721	601	662	722
1994	619	677	725	619	680	724	619	680	724
1995	632	680	748	633	681	748	632	682	748
1996	628	665	757	627	665	758	625	666	757
1997	624	693	757	624	694	757	624	694	758
1998	642	718	749	643	717	751	641	718	749
1999	650	709	776	651	709	776	650	708	776
2000	620	691	783	619	690	787	620	688	785
2001	661	697	786	662	697	786	660	698	785
2002	645	708	769	647	708	770	646	708	769
2003	639	715	761	640	715	761	640	715	762
2004	599	658	756	600	659	753	599	659	753
2005	601	719	804	597	719	804	597	719	805
2006	614	684	758	618	680	736	641	706	776
2007	616	685	748	652	717	776	653	719	805
2008	636	721	778	647	681	752	635	700	742
2009	630	738	805	597	690	809	644	698	775
2010	660	716	757	648	721	756	634	719	780
2011	640	711	769	613	697	769	638	701	804
2012	621	685	751	633	711	788	629	684	761
2013	617	715	769	657	719	803	645	710	767
2014	637	745	800	636	708	774	637	701	780
2015	639	719	783	631	704	801	623	687	781
2016	649	694	726	660	732	781	622	707	791
2017	617	708	752	626	691	761	644	707	793
2018	636	698	767	635	729	766	641	713	753
2019	647	711	775	633	703	781	638	699	776
2020	652	716	797	669	745	783	641	699	793
2021	604	692	763	627	713	748	632	695	803
2022	647	702	754	642	714	823	611	697	772
2023	659	722	792	668	729	785	617	706	771
2024	616	723	794	652	695	795	632	708	791
2025	660	697	776	650	713	800	631	697	765
2026	612	713	808	630	695	803	651	718	754
2027	632	723	786	660	721	770	648	741	786
2028	644	715	775	615	732	793	649	734	798
2029	618	720	808	633	734	804	666	725	824
2030	653	708	772	630	700	773	646	708	802
2031	638	736	810	676	724	789	639	754	823
2032	657	738	787	658	740	792	677	732	794
2033	670	720	771	619	721	791	622	720	776
2034	629	715	780	634	736	785	634	708	761
2035	685	723	776	652	702	799	685	745	789
2036	674	740	802	683	740	806	668	736	797
2037	679	748	813	633	718	839	658	733	785
2038	644	737	812	628	729	835	618	715	812
2039	662	704	803	659	747	829	678	745	795
2040	684	719	793	657	720	800	657	745	837
2041	647	725	804	662	716	782	683	730	808
2042	645	738	809	658	719	761	678	744	812
2043	659	735	806	625	723	809	653	739	808
2044	669	740	815	645	731	802	677	750	820
2045	641	741	833	657	715	784	657	740	808
2046	660	728	796	674	764	821	686	757	854
2047	647	730	818	642	725	802	653	749	824
2048	668	706	798	684	726	774	591	757	802
2049	653	745	818	664	747	808	667	722	815
2050	656	736	813	662	747	821	659	759	814
2051	656	714	807	673	749	814	684	757	814
2052	658	718	812	668	735	862	641	758	823
2053	675	727	812	675	740	842	640	730	793
2054	694	744	783	685	759	898	718	773	834
2055	647	722	797	676	769	845	674	751	823
2056	626	713	803	706	757	822	665	773	866
2057	649	715	839	646	726	826	657	721	824
2058	617	745	830	597	725	843	678	750	845
2059	670	708	831	644	713	813	687	765	821
2060	605	708	789	634	746	803	681	746	806
2061	624	724	779	679	764	821	688	757	842
2062	610	724	785	633	734	835	667	738	837
2063	698	755	820	667	738	815	680	756	822
2064	628	740	803	693	744	835	669	748	854
2065	661	746	810	680	745	810	681	763	829
2066	696	744	806	686	756	827	686	762	820
2067	646	751	817	668	732	835	674	742	828
2068	659	712	769	651	760	794	700	785	864
2069	655	732	832	670	753	814	667	758	874
2070	628	757	803	656	715	819	662	796	871
2071	622	759	826	688	732	828	709	767	868
2072	682	747	840	672	726	840	648	742	903
2073	644	715	787	654	731	830	663	774	856
2074	650	748	843	677	754	824	693	751	847
2075	643	718	793	671	735	851	695	740	828
2076	610	716	800	623	705	836	676	755	860
2077	687	750	813	670	738	815	673	798	849
2078	668	756	826	613	756	807	668	750	818
2079	659	728	786	665	747	819	704	788	896
2080	619	729	797	639	749	840	683	769	813
2081	643	734	806	673	742	815	677	818	894
2082	613	731	808	659	752	843	660	792	846
2083	687	725	785	676	748	835	689	774	860
2084	606	711	796	680	743	821	679	787	867
2085	674	714	802	686	749	863	663	798	870
2086	626	736	787	666	745	828	648	786	863
2087	639	726	806	669	748	882	733	817	893
2088	648	735	832	661	744	815	709	805	882
2089	640	730	775	645	751	829	698	765	858
2090	650	749	803	660	738	814	721	810	872
2091	649	740	798	684	744	835	688	753	858
2092	674	735	835	669	748	829	693	792	921
2093	651	730	787	683	747	802	662	760	917
2094	656	733	847	695	766	808	714	804	923
2095	657	741	825	664	736	805	712	815	905
2096	660	715	793	657	735	801	701	812	907
2097	643	705	785	695	760	840	725	807	889
2098	662	713	789	693	754	865	681	826	881
2099	635	740	807	696	746	839	680	812	893
2100	659	736	847	671	771	829	638	806	896

Figure 4-2 Changing climate hazards in Ontario (Extreme Heat)

Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Services.

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	Low Emissions Scenario			Medium-Emissions Scenario			High-Emissions Scenario
Year	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High
1950	26	29	31	26	29	31	26	29	31
1951	27	30	33	27	30	33	27	30	33
1952	28	30	31	28	30	31	28	30	31
1953	26	30	32	26	30	32	26	30	32
1954	27	30	31	27	30	31	27	30	31
1955	28	29	32	28	29	32	28	29	32
1956	29	30	33	29	30	33	29	30	33
1957	27	29	34	27	29	34	27	29	34
1958	26	29	31	26	29	31	26	29	31
1959	27	29	33	27	29	33	27	29	33
1960	27	29	32	27	29	32	27	29	32
1961	27	31	32	27	31	32	27	31	32
1962	26	29	31	26	29	31	26	29	31
1963	27	29	32	27	29	32	27	29	32
1964	27	29	31	27	29	31	27	29	31
1965	27	29	31	27	29	31	27	29	31
1966	27	28	31	27	28	31	27	28	31
1967	27	29	32	27	29	32	27	29	32
1968	28	30	33	28	30	33	28	30	33
1969	26	29	31	26	29	31	26	29	31
1970	28	30	33	28	30	33	28	30	33
1971	27	29	31	27	29	31	27	29	31
1972	27	30	31	27	30	31	27	30	31
1973	27	29	32	27	29	32	27	29	32
1974	27	29	32	27	29	32	27	29	32
1975	27	30	31	27	30	31	27	30	31
1976	27	30	32	27	30	32	27	30	32
1977	27	30	31	27	30	31	27	30	31
1978	28	29	31	28	29	31	28	29	31
1979	27	29	32	27	29	32	27	29	32
1980	28	30	32	28	30	32	28	30	32
1981	28	30	33	28	30	33	28	30	33
1982	28	29	32	28	29	33	28	29	33
1983	28	30	31	28	30	31	28	30	31
1984	28	30	33	28	30	33	28	30	33
1985	28	30	33	28	30	33	28	30	33
1986	27	30	31	27	30	32	27	30	32
1987	26	29	32	26	29	32	26	29	32
1988	27	29	33	27	29	33	27	29	33
1989	28	31	33	28	31	33	28	31	33
1990	29	30	32	29	30	32	29	30	32
1991	28	30	33	28	30	33	28	30	33
1992	27	30	31	27	30	31	27	30	31
1993	27	29	31	27	29	31	27	29	31
1994	27	30	32	27	30	32	27	30	32
1995	28	29	32	28	29	32	28	29	32
1996	28	31	33	28	31	32	28	31	33
1997	28	30	32	28	30	32	28	30	32
1998	28	30	32	28	30	32	28	30	32
1999	29	30	32	29	30	32	29	30	32
2000	28	30	32	28	30	32	28	30	32
2001	28	30	33	28	30	33	28	30	33
2002	29	31	33	29	31	33	29	31	33
2003	28	30	32	28	30	32	28	30	32
2004	28	30	33	28	30	33	28	30	33
2005	28	31	33	28	31	33	28	31	33
2006	28	30	34	28	30	32	30	31	34
2007	28	31	33	30	31	33	28	30	32
2008	29	31	34	29	31	34	28	30	34
2009	28	32	32	28	30	33	27	31	34
2010	27	30	34	29	31	33	29	31	32
2011	29	31	32	28	31	36	27	30	32
2012	29	30	33	29	31	34	29	31	33
2013	28	31	34	28	31	34	29	30	32
2014	28	31	33	29	31	34	29	31	32
2015	29	30	33	29	31	34	30	31	33
2016	28	32	34	28	30	33	29	32	33
2017	29	31	35	29	31	34	29	32	34
2018	29	31	33	28	30	34	29	31	34
2019	29	31	34	29	32	34	30	32	34
2020	29	31	33	29	31	34	28	31	33
2021	30	32	33	29	32	34	29	31	33
2022	28	31	33	28	32	34	28	31	33
2023	28	31	34	28	31	33	29	31	35
2024	29	32	33	29	31	33	30	31	34
2025	29	31	33	30	32	34	29	31	35
2026	29	31	33	29	32	35	29	31	34
2027	30	32	34	29	32	34	29	31	34
2028	29	33	36	29	32	34	29	32	34
2029	29	31	33	28	32	35	29	31	34
2030	29	32	34	30	32	34	30	32	35
2031	30	32	34	29	32	34	30	32	36
2032	30	32	33	29	33	34	30	32	34
2033	29	31	35	30	32	35	30	32	35
2034	29	32	34	29	32	35	30	33	34
2035	30	33	35	30	32	35	28	32	35
2036	29	31	34	28	32	34	30	32	35
2037	29	32	34	29	31	34	31	32	35
2038	27	31	35	30	32	36	30	33	35
2039	29	32	36	28	32	34	30	32	35
2040	29	31	34	29	32	34	29	32	34
2041	28	32	33	29	32	34	29	33	36
2042	30	32	34	29	33	35	29	32	34
2043	29	31	35	29	32	35	30	32	35
2044	29	31	35	29	32	34	30	32	34
2045	28	32	33	30	32	34	30	33	35
2046	28	32	34	30	32	34	30	34	35
2047	29	31	34	29	32	36	30	33	35
2048	30	32	35	31	32	34	29	33	36
2049	28	32	34	29	32	35	30	33	35
2050	30	32	35	29	33	36	31	33	36
2051	28	32	34	29	32	35	29	34	36
2052	30	32	35	29	32	35	31	33	35
2053	29	32	36	30	33	35	30	34	37
2054	30	32	35	30	32	35	31	34	36
2055	28	31	35	28	33	35	30	34	36
2056	28	32	35	29	33	34	30	34	37
2057	28	32	35	30	32	35	30	34	37
2058	29	31	33	30	33	34	32	34	37
2059	28	32	35	31	33	35	30	34	37
2060	29	32	34	31	33	35	29	34	37
2061	28	32	35	31	33	35	31	35	38
2062	29	32	34	30	32	35	30	34	37
2063	30	31	35	31	33	36	30	34	37
2064	27	33	36	29	33	36	31	35	38
2065	29	33	35	30	34	37	32	34	38
2066	30	32	34	29	32	36	31	35	38
2067	28	32	34	29	33	37	32	36	38
2068	30	32	34	31	33	35	31	34	39
2069	29	31	34	30	34	35	32	35	39
2070	30	31	34	30	33	35	31	34	36
2071	29	31	34	31	33	36	31	36	39
2072	29	32	35	30	34	35	33	35	37
2073	29	32	35	31	33	36	31	35	39
2074	29	31	33	30	33	35	32	36	38
2075	29	32	34	29	33	36	32	35	39
2076	29	31	37	31	33	36	32	35	39
2077	29	32	34	29	33	36	33	36	38
2078	28	32	34	30	34	35	33	36	38
2079	29	32	35	30	34	35	33	36	38
2080	29	31	34	31	34	35	31	36	39
2081	29	32	34	30	33	36	32	37	39
2082	29	32	34	29	34	37	33	36	38
2083	29	32	34	30	33	36	32	36	39
2084	29	32	35	31	34	35	32	35	37
2085	29	32	33	31	33	38	34	36	39
2086	29	32	34	31	34	36	33	37	40
2087	29	33	34	29	33	36	31	36	40
2088	31	32	34	31	32	35	34	36	40
2089	29	32	35	30	33	36	32	37	39
2090	30	32	35	30	33	36	33	37	41
2091	30	32	33	31	34	36	33	37	41
2092	30	31	34	31	32	37	34	37	40
2093	29	31	35	31	34	37	34	38	40
2094	28	32	35	31	34	38	33	36	41
2095	29	31	34	31	34	36	34	37	41
2096	30	32	34	30	34	36	32	37	40
2097	29	31	35	30	34	36	32	37	41
2098	29	32	34	30	34	36	34	39	41
2099	30	31	35	31	34	37	33	38	41
2100	30	31	34	29	33	35	34	38	40

Figure 4-2 Changing climate hazards in Ontario (Freeze-Thaw Cycles)

Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Services.

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	Low Emissions Scenario			Medium-Emissions Scenario			High-Emissions Scenario
Year	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High	Low	Median	High
1950	68	80	92	68	80	93	68	80	93
1951	66	80	91	66	80	91	66	80	91
1952	66	78	89	66	78	89	66	78	89
1953	64	78	87	64	78	87	64	78	87
1954	68	81	89	68	81	89	68	82	89
1955	69	76	91	68	76	91	68	76	91
1956	66	78	87	67	76	87	67	76	87
1957	66	80	91	66	80	91	66	80	91
1958	63	76	92	63	77	92	63	77	92
1959	69	82	92	69	81	92	69	81	92
1960	67	80	90	67	80	90	67	80	90
1961	64	77	92	65	77	92	65	77	92
1962	65	78	94	65	79	94	66	79	94
1963	68	82	98	68	82	98	68	82	98
1964	70	82	95	70	81	95	70	81	95
1965	67	76	90	67	76	90	67	75	90
1966	64	81	96	64	81	96	64	81	95
1967	69	81	98	69	81	98	69	81	98
1968	64	77	93	64	77	93	64	77	93
1969	67	78	92	67	78	93	67	78	92
1970	67	80	100	67	80	100	67	80	100
1971	71	79	91	71	79	92	71	79	92
1972	69	82	95	70	83	95	70	83	95
1973	67	79	90	67	79	90	67	79	90
1974	66	77	92	64	76	91	63	76	91
1975	67	77	90	67	77	90	67	77	90
1976	63	77	92	63	77	91	63	77	91
1977	71	84	94	72	84	94	71	84	94
1978	70	77	87	70	78	87	70	78	87
1979	69	82	91	69	81	91	69	81	91
1980	68	75	87	69	75	87	69	76	86
1981	66	78	88	66	78	88	66	78	88
1982	64	76	90	64	77	90	64	76	89
1983	60	77	92	60	77	94	60	76	94
1984	64	80	87	64	79	87	64	80	87
1985	57	73	85	57	73	85	57	72	85
1986	64	77	88	64	77	88	64	77	88
1987	65	77	88	64	77	88	64	76	88
1988	62	75	86	62	75	85	62	75	85
1989	61	77	89	61	77	89	61	77	89
1990	65	76	91	65	76	91	65	76	91
1991	65	75	88	65	76	88	65	75	88
1992	66	75	90	66	74	90	65	75	90
1993	68	77	93	68	78	95	69	78	95
1994	63	77	86	63	78	88	63	77	88
1995	66	76	92	66	76	91	66	75	92
1996	67	76	89	68	76	89	68	76	89
1997	63	78	90	63	77	90	63	77	90
1998	65	74	89	65	74	89	65	74	89
1999	64	79	90	64	79	90	64	79	89
2000	63	77	86	64	77	89	64	77	89
2001	66	75	84	66	75	84	66	75	84
2002	68	79	91	67	79	91	66	79	91
2003	58	75	84	59	75	87	59	75	86
2004	63	74	89	63	74	88	63	74	88
2005	65	79	95	65	78	91	66	78	91
2006	61	71	83	62	76	93	64	75	91
2007	64	79	92	64	78	90	63	75	87
2008	63	76	85	61	77	86	63	77	92
2009	65	78	92	63	78	93	64	77	90
2010	67	75	88	61	71	86	60	72	86
2011	59	72	82	61	79	91	64	75	87
2012	62	76	88	63	75	91	59	74	89
2013	63	75	86	62	78	93	61	75	87
2014	60	73	87	62	73	85	57	68	85
2015	60	73	88	60	73	85	58	71	83
2016	61	71	90	61	72	82	58	73	87
2017	57	70	87	62	74	85	63	73	86
2018	61	77	92	60	71	82	63	75	94
2019	64	75	88	59	71	85	59	74	89
2020	63	72	84	59	73	85	58	70	88
2021	63	74	83	59	73	87	62	70	83
2022	61	72	90	61	75	87	62	71	86
2023	63	75	87	64	73	88	59	70	85
2024	57	71	84	62	75	88	57	72	88
2025	55	70	90	63	74	87	56	70	84
2026	57	72	83	61	75	92	56	72	85
2027	60	75	87	61	70	87	61	69	82
2028	60	75	88	62	72	89	59	69	85
2029	61	75	89	59	69	84	60	74	83
2030	61	75	85	59	70	84	59	73	82
2031	59	73	86	60	69	93	58	67	81
2032	60	74	84	60	72	84	56	70	87
2033	64	76	87	59	72	84	60	70	82
2034	58	70	85	57	69	89	58	69	83
2035	60	73	84	59	72	80	55	75	86
2036	60	72	86	61	74	89	59	71	84
2037	58	72	84	58	72	83	57	71	86
2038	59	74	90	65	77	89	59	72	85
2039	60	72	87	60	71	83	57	71	86
2040	62	73	91	57	69	87	56	65	89
2041	56	71	83	55	72	85	54	69	81
2042	59	68	85	55	69	80	53	65	86
2043	59	70	76	54	70	85	57	69	85
2044	53	72	84	58	71	87	58	70	81
2045	61	74	84	60	74	85	59	66	81
2046	59	72	84	59	71	87	53	66	83
2047	60	72	84	58	69	82	57	67	83
2048	56	72	93	59	69	81	52	67	79
2049	56	71	86	56	73	82	56	68	85
2050	59	72	84	57	71	83	56	68	83
2051	58	76	91	56	66	86	55	66	80
2052	59	70	89	56	70	86	56	66	83
2053	60	73	88	59	70	86	58	73	88
2054	58	76	89	58	70	90	55	67	76
2055	54	71	84	54	73	84	57	68	79
2056	61	75	83	54	72	86	54	70	86
2057	60	73	86	54	69	84	56	66	83
2058	57	72	87	56	69	87	53	65	79
2059	62	72	83	54	69	84	52	67	88
2060	60	74	86	53	69	84	52	68	83
2061	55	71	87	58	73	87	53	67	82
2062	58	69	87	60	72	85	52	65	76
2063	55	72	87	53	69	86	54	66	87
2064	54	72	89	55	74	88	54	66	86
2065	58	73	82	55	71	87	60	69	81
2066	59	74	85	53	70	83	55	71	78
2067	57	69	84	60	72	87	50	63	75
2068	60	75	87	58	73	89	52	70	85
2069	60	71	85	57	69	83	54	65	81
2070	62	75	88	56	67	78	53	68	85
2071	55	72	82	58	70	84	52	66	77
2072	57	72	86	53	68	81	53	66	79
2073	58	73	84	59	69	84	54	66	83
2074	59	68	83	55	64	81	53	66	81
2075	57	70	83	52	68	88	52	64	81
2076	59	70	83	53	69	88	53	67	83
2077	57	74	87	57	68	89	55	63	79
2078	58	71	91	55	68	83	50	63	81
2079	57	71	83	54	70	81	50	66	81
2080	56	74	88	50	66	83	56	66	82
2081	56	69	83	55	64	79	53	65	81
2082	57	72	87	52	69	84	50	66	80
2083	58	70	87	56	70	86	53	68	84
2084	58	70	88	57	74	96	52	65	86
2085	61	70	84	55	65	77	50	63	81
2086	62	77	88	51	68	85	50	64	78
2087	62	72	90	58	71	85	50	59	80
2088	55	71	90	58	70	82	48	66	90
2089	58	75	84	57	67	81	48	64	86
2090	56	75	85	55	69	86	53	69	85
2091	56	73	88	56	69	83	43	64	80
2092	62	75	88	57	72	86	56	67	81
2093	59	73	81	57	71	84	51	63	81
2094	59	73	85	55	67	84	51	65	83
2095	59	72	87	55	67	82	50	64	80
2096	54	68	86	57	70	85	54	65	81
2097	56	72	87	59	68	79	51	66	75
2098	58	72	85	53	67	82	51	63	79
2099	58	73	92	58	71	86	49	64	81
2100	60	76	89	48	67	87	48	63	81

Figure 4-3 More extreme rainfall and heat will raise the cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public buildings in the absence of adaptation actions

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario	Damage	2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Medium	Low	$0	$2	$5	$9	$13	$18	$24	$27	$29
	Median	$0	$5	$12	$22	$34	$43	$54	$64	$66
	High	$1	$10	$19	$49	$65	$88	$103	$126	$134
High	Low	$0	$2	$6	$12	$20	$28	$40	$49	$55
	Median	$0	$6	$14	$26	$42	$60	$77	$104	$116
	High	$1	$10	$20	$54	$77	$106	$143	$188	$232

Figure 5-1 Ontario’s public buildings have long remaining useful lives

Source: FAO.

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Remaining useful life categories	Proportion of building assets in different remaining useful life categories by CRV (Per Cent)
Beyond Useful Life	3
0-20 years	11
20-40 years	18
40-60 years	20
60-80 years	27
80-100 years	15
More than 100 years	7

Figure 5-2 Examples of building component adaptations to extreme rainfall and extreme heat

Note: For more examples of how these climate hazards impact building components, see WSP 2021.

Source: WSP.

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Civil and Landscaping	Stormwater ponds, infiltration galleries, and retention or detention tanks to slow and minimize rainwater runoff rate and quantity.
Structure	Upgrade roof structure to handle greater loading due to stormwater detention. Costs could also include the addition of waterproof membranes and drains.
Envelope	Finishes on the exterior need to be more sustainable to withstand heat and maintain the thermal protection of the indoor environment, shielding other building components from much of the stress of extreme heat events. Roof drainage needs to be sized for future rainfall projections and sufficiently graded to limit ponding.
Mechanical and Electrical	New or added cooling capacity will be required to maintain comfort conditions indoors.
Equipment and Finishing	Relocate exterior equipment outside of potential flooding areas due to increase in frequency and intensity of short-duration / high-intensity rainfall events.

Figure 5-3 The reactive adaptation strategy has fewer assets adapted by 2100

Source: FAO.

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Proportion of Adapted Public Buildings (Per Cent Share of CRV)	Reactive Adaptation	Proactive Adaptation
2022	1	8
2023	1	10
2024	1	14
2025	1	21
2026	1	23
2027	1	25
2028	2	28
2029	2	31
2030	2	36
2031	2	40
2032	3	43
2033	3	49
2034	4	51
2035	4	54
2036	5	56
2037	9	61
2038	9	68
2039	11	71
2040	12	73
2041	14	75
2042	15	79
2043	16	81
2044	17	81
2045	18	83
2046	19	87
2047	21	88
2048	22	90
2049	23	91
2050	24	92
2051	25	95
2052	26	98
2053	26	98
2054	27	98
2055	28	99
2056	29	99
2057	29	99
2058	30	99
2059	31	99
2060	32	100
2061	34	100
2062	35	100
2063	36	100
2064	36	100
2065	37	100
2066	38	100
2067	39	100
2068	40	100
2069	41	100
2070	43	100
2071	45	100
2072	46	100
2073	47	100
2074	47	100
2075	48	100
2076	49	100
2077	50	100
2078	50	100
2079	51	100
2080	52	100
2081	53	100
2082	54	100
2083	56	100
2084	59	100
2085	59	100
2086	62	100
2087	64	100
2088	65	100
2089	65	100
2090	68	100
2091	69	100
2092	72	100
2093	73	100
2094	74	100
2095	75	100
2096	75	100
2097	76	100
2098	76	100
2099	76	100
2100	77	100

Figure 5-4 The reactive adaptation strategy will see gradual rise in costs throughout the 21st century

Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario		2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Medium	Low	$0	$2	$6	$11	$14	$18	$21	$24	$22
	Median	$1	$5	$14	$24	$35	$41	$49	$56	$52
	High	$1	$10	$20	$51	$63	$84	$92	$108	$108
High	Low	$0	$2	$8	$15	$24	$30	$40	$46	$44
	Median	$1	$7	$17	$31	$47	$62	$74	$92	$91
	High	$1	$11	$24	$61	$81	$106	$134	$158	$174

Figure 5-5 Proactively adapting all public buildings would require significant near-term investment

Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: FAO.

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Emissions Scenario		2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Medium	Low	$1	$7	$15	$20	$21	$22	$25	$24	$23
	Median	$3	$15	$29	$39	$47	$49	$53	$57	$54
	High	$4	$26	$49	$68	$79	$82	$93	$95	$98
High	Low	$3	$15	$31	$42	$47	$51	$55	$51	$51
	Median	$5	$26	$53	$71	$83	$89	$97	$103	$104
	High	$7	$42	$82	$117	$133	$141	$158	$165	$174

Figure 6-1 Asset management strategies to cope with extreme rainfall and heat have different cost profiles

Notes: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: FAO.

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		2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
High Emissions Scenario	Reactive Adaptation	$1	$7	$17	$31	$47	$62	$74	$92	$91
	Proactive Adaptation	$5	$26	$53	$71	$83	$89	$97	$103	$104
	No Adaptation	$0	$6	$14	$26	$42	$60	$77	$104	$116
Medium Emissions Scenario	Reactive Adaptation	$1	$5	$14	$24	$35	$41	$49	$56	$52
	Proactive Adaptation	$3	$15	$29	$39	$47	$49	$53	$57	$54
	No Adaptation	$0	$5	$12	$22	$34	$43	$54	$64	$66

Figure 7-1 The useful service life of public buildings will decline due to projected changes in extreme heat, extreme rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles in the absence of adaptation actions

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) climate projection using “most likely” engineering outcomes. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario given climate and engineering uncertainty.

Source: WSP and FAO.

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	Medium Emissions Scenario			High Emissions Scenario
	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Minimum	Median	Maximum
2020s	-4	-2	0	-4	-2	0
2030s	-5	-2	-1	-5	-3	0
2040s	-6	-3	-1	-8	-3	-1
2050s	-8	-3	-1	-10	-5	-1
2060s	-9	-3	-1	-13	-6	-2
2070s	-10	-4	-1	-16	-7	-2
2080s	-10	-4	-1	-20	-9	-3
2090s	-10	-4	-1	-24	-11	-4
2100s	-10	-4	-1	-28	-12	-4

Figure 7-2 More extreme rainfall is the biggest factor accelerating the deterioration of public buildings

Note: These values are based on the median (50th percentile) Ontario average climate projections using the estimates of “most likely” engineering outcome. The range of climate and engineering uncertainties has been omitted in this figure for presentation purposes.

Source: WSP and FAO.

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Medium Emissions Scenario	Extreme Rainfall	Freeze-Thaw Cycles	Extreme Heat	Total
2020s	-1.7	0.3	-0.2	-1.7
2030s	-2.1	0.5	-0.3	-2.0
2040s	-2.6	0.4	-0.4	-2.6
2050s	-3.1	0.5	-0.5	-3.1
2060s	-3.5	0.5	-0.6	-3.5
2070s	-3.8	0.7	-0.7	-3.8
2080s	-3.8	0.7	-0.7	-3.9
2090s	-3.9	0.8	-0.8	-4.0
2100s	-4.0	0.8	-0.9	-4.1
High Emissions Scenario	Extreme Rainfall	Freeze-Thaw Cycles	Extreme Heat	Total
2020s	-1.9	0.4	-0.3	-1.9
2030s	-2.6	0.5	-0.5	-2.6
2040s	-3.4	0.6	-0.6	-3.4
2050s	-4.6	0.7	-0.8	-4.7
2060s	-5.7	0.7	-1.1	-6.1
2070s	-6.9	0.8	-1.4	-7.5
2080s	-8.1	0.9	-1.7	-8.9
2090s	-9.4	0.9	-2.1	-10.6
2100s	-10.7	1.0	-2.6	-12.3

Figure 7-3 Projected changes in extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles will raise the O&M expenses of Ontario’s public buildings in the absence of adaptation actions

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) climate projection using “most likely” engineering outcomes. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario given climate and engineering uncertainty.

Source: WSP and FAO.

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	Medium Emissions Scenario			High Emissions Scenario
	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Minimum	Median	Maximum
2020s	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.3
2030s	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.4
2040s	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.5
2050s	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.3	0.5	0.7
2060s	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.6	1.0
2070s	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.7	1.2
2080s	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.9	1.4
2090s	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.6	1.0	1.7
2100s	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.7	1.2	2.0

Figure 7-4 More intense rainfall will contribute the most to rising O&M costs for public buildings

Note: These values are based on the median (50th percentile) Ontario average climate projections using the estimates of “most likely” engineering outcome. The range of climate and engineering uncertainties has been omitted in this figure for presentation purposes.

Source: WSP and FAO.

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Medium Emissions Scenario	Extreme Rainfall	Freeze-Thaw Cycles	Extreme Heat	Total
2020	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
2030	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
2040	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.3
2050	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.3
2060	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.4
2070	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.4
2080	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.4
2090	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.4
2100	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.4
High Emissions Scenario	Extreme Rainfall	Freeze-Thaw Cycles	Extreme Heat	Total
2020	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
2030	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.3
2040	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.4
2050	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.5
2060	0.6	0.0	0.1	0.6
2070	0.7	0.0	0.1	0.7
2080	0.8	0.0	0.1	0.9
2090	0.9	0.0	0.1	1.0
2100	1.0	0.0	0.2	1.2

Figure 7-5 The cost of retrofitting Ontario’s public buildings to withstand extreme rainfall and heat will depend on the extent of climate change

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) climate projection using “most likely” engineering outcomes. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario given climate and engineering uncertainty.

Source: WSP and FAO.

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	Medium Emissions Scenario			High Emissions Scenario
	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Minimum	Median	Maximum
2020s	3	5	7	3	5	8
2030s	4	6	10	4	7	11
2040s	5	7	12	6	10	15
2050s	5	9	15	8	13	19
2060s	5	10	17	10	16	25
2070s	6	11	19	12	20	32
2080s	6	11	19	14	23	39
2090s	6	11	19	16	27	46
2100s	6	12	19	18	32	55

Figure 7-6 The cost of adapting Ontario’s public buildings at renewal to withstand extreme rainfall and heat will depend on the extent of climate change

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) climate projection using “most likely” engineering outcomes. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario given climate and engineering uncertainty.

Source: WSP and FAO.

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	Medium Emissions Scenario			High Emissions Scenario
	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Minimum	Median	Maximum
2020s	2	2	3	2	3	4
2030s	2	3	5	3	4	5
2040s	3	4	6	4	5	7
2050s	3	5	7	5	7	9
2060s	3	5	8	6	8	12
2070s	3	6	9	7	10	15
2080s	3	6	9	8	12	18
2090s	4	6	9	9	14	22
2100s	4	6	9	10	17	26

Figure 7-7 The present value cost of each asset management strategy under different discount rates

Note: The costs presented use the median (50th percentile) climate projections and “most likely” engineering costs.

Source: FAO.

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Medium Emissions Scenario	0.0%	0.5%	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%	6.5%	7.0%
No Adaptation	$66	$55	$46	$40	$34	$30	$26	$23	$20	$18	$17	$15	$14	$13	$12
Reactive Adaptation	$52	$45	$39	$35	$31	$27	$24	$22	$20	$18	$17	$15	$14	$13	$12
Proactive Adaptation	$54	$49	$44	$41	$37	$35	$32	$30	$29	$27	$26	$24	$23	$22	$21
High Emissions Scenario	0.0%	0.5%	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%	6.5%	7.0%
No Adaptation	$116	$94	$76	$63	$52	$44	$38	$33	$28	$25	$22	$20	$18	$16	$15
Reactive Adaptation	$91	$76	$64	$55	$47	$41	$36	$32	$28	$25	$23	$21	$19	$18	$16
Proactive Adaptation	$104	$93	$84	$76	$69	$64	$59	$55	$52	$49	$46	$44	$41	$40	$38

Figure 7-8 More extreme rainfall and heat will raise the cost of maintaining the current portfolio of public buildings by $43 billion in the low emissions scenario in the absence of adaptation

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: WSP and FAO.

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Emissions Scenario	Estimate	2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Low	Low	$0	$2	$5	$8	$9	$12	$16	$18	$18
	Median	$0	$4	$11	$18	$28	$34	$40	$45	$43
	High	$1	$8	$20	$40	$50	$69	$75	$86	$89
Medium	Low	$0	$2	$5	$9	$13	$18	$24	$27	$29
	Median	$0	$5	$12	$22	$34	$43	$54	$64	$66
	High	$1	$10	$19	$49	$65	$88	$103	$126	$134
High	Low	$0	$2	$6	$12	$20	$28	$40	$49	$55
	Median	$0	$6	$14	$26	$42	$60	$77	$104	$116
	High	$1	$10	$20	$54	$77	$106	$143	$188	$232

Figure 7-9 A reactive adaptation strategy, where buildings are adapted when renewed at the end of their service life to withstand the impacts of more extreme rainfall and heat, will add $35 billion in infrastructure costs over the century in the low emissions scenario

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: WSP and FAO.

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Emissions Scenario	Estimate	2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Low	Low	$0	$2	$5	$8	$9	$11	$15	$16	$15
	Median	$0	$4	$12	$19	$27	$31	$36	$39	$35
	High	$1	$9	$21	$40	$48	$61	$68	$74	$74
Medium	Low	$0	$2	$6	$11	$14	$18	$21	$24	$22
	Median	$1	$5	$14	$24	$35	$41	$49	$56	$52
	High	$1	$10	$20	$51	$63	$84	$92	$108	$108
High	Low	$0	$2	$8	$15	$24	$30	$40	$46	$44
	Median	$1	$7	$17	$31	$47	$62	$74	$92	$91
	High	$1	$11	$24	$61	$81	$106	$134	$158	$174

Figure 7-10 A proactive adaptation strategy, where buildings are adapted at the earliest opportunity to withstand the impacts of more extreme rainfall and heat, will add $33 billion in infrastructure costs over the century in the low emissions scenario

Note: The solid line is the median (or 50th percentile) projection. The coloured bands represent the range of possible outcomes in each emissions scenario. The costs presented in this chart are in addition to the projected baseline costs over the same period.

Source: WSP and FAO.

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Emissions Scenario	Estimate	2022	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Low	Low	$1	$5	$10	$12	$13	$13	$15	$14	$14
	Median	$2	$9	$19	$26	$30	$32	$34	$36	$33
	High	$3	$18	$35	$46	$55	$58	$66	$67	$69
Medium	Low	$1	$7	$15	$20	$21	$22	$25	$24	$23
	Median	$3	$15	$29	$39	$47	$49	$53	$57	$54
	High	$4	$26	$49	$68	$79	$82	$93	$95	$98
High	Low	$3	$15	$31	$42	$47	$51	$55	$51	$51
	Median	$5	$26	$53	$71	$83	$89	$97	$103	$104
	High	$7	$42	$82	$117	$133	$141	$158	$165	$174

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Footnotes