Category : Economy

Expenditure Estimates 2019-20 : Ministry of Education

This report provides an assessment of the Ministry of Education’s 2019-20 Expenditure Estimates to support the Standing Committee on Estimates in its annual review of ministries’ Expenditure Estimates.

Child Care In Ontario: A Review Of Ontario’s New Child Care Tax Credit And Implications For Ontario’s Labour Force

This report assesses the Ontario government’s new Childcare Access and Relief from Expenses (CARE) tax credit including the impact on the Province’s budget balance, the financial benefits it will provide to households, and its potential impact on Ontario’s labour market and broader economy.

Economic and Budget Outlook, Spring 2019

This report provides an assessment of Ontario’s current economic outlook and the state of the provincial government’s finances.

Comparing Ontario’s Fiscal Position with Other Provinces

This commentary provides an updated comparison of Ontario government revenue, spending, deficit and net debt with that of other provinces.

Ontario’s strong labour market performance continued in 2018

This commentary reviews Ontario’s labour market performance in 2018.

Income in Ontario: Growth, Distribution and Mobility

This report assesses trends since 2000 in the personal income of Ontarians across three broad areas: growth, distribution and mobility. It examines the growth in incomes for Ontario families, explores recent trends in market and after-tax income inequality, and discusses the evolution of relative income mobility and intergenerational income mobility in Ontario.

Economic and Budget Outlook, Fall 2018

This report provides the FAO’s assessment of the province’s medium-term economic performance and fiscal position.

Economic and Budget Outlook, Spring 2018

This report provides the FAO’s assessment of the province’s medium-term economic performance and fiscal position, and the reasonableness and risks associated with the government’s fiscal recovery plan.

Business Support Programs

This report reviews how the Province measures the effectiveness of its business support programs.

Assessing Ontario Households’ Debt Burden and Financial Vulnerability

In 2016, the average Ontario household owed nearly $154,000, representing 171 per cent of household disposable income. As interest rates increase, the share of household income spent on debt payments is expected to rise from 13.9 per cent in 2016 to 15.3 per cent by 2021. For the average household, the FAO expects annual debt payments to increase by $3,000 to $15,500 by 2021.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook, Fall 2017 Update

This report provides an updated Economic and Fiscal Outlook for Ontario based on developments since the release of the FAO’s spring outlook on May 31, 2017.

Long-term Budget Outlook 2017

This report assesses the budget implications of maintaining Ontario’s current fiscal structure through three decades of demographic transition.

Assessing the Economic Impact of Ontario's Proposed Minimum Wage Increase

As part of the Fair Workplaces, Better Jobs Act, the government proposes to raise Ontario’s general minimum wage from its current rate of $11.40 per hour to $14 per hour on January 1, 2018 and $15 per hour the following year. While almost 1.6 million workers will benefit from the increase, a significant number of lower wage workers will lose their jobs and some businesses will struggle to cover higher payroll costs.

Ontario’s Debt Reduction Commitment Based on Unlikely Assumptions

In the 2017 Budget, the government restated its commitment to reduce the net debt-to-GDP ratio to its pre-recession level of 27 per cent.  The Province’s commitment is based on three unlikely assumptions. If any of these assumptions fall short of expectations, the government’s debt-to-GDP target would not be achieved.

Optimistic Revenue Projection Underpins Government’s Balanced Budget Plan

The 2017 Ontario Budget projects balanced budgets beginning in 2017-18 and continuing over the next two years. Given the government’s spending plans, maintaining a balanced budget relies critically on an optimistic revenue forecast – and in particular, on very strong growth in tax revenues. However, there appears to be significant downside risk to the government’s forecast.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook Spring 2017

The FAO’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook provides an assessment of Ontario’s current economic outlook and the state of the provincial government’s finances.

The Impact of a Housing Market Correction on Ontario’s Fiscal Position

The Impact of a Housing Market Correction on Ontario’s Fiscal Position provides the FAO’s assessment of risk to Ontario’s finances from a potential housing market correction.

Ontario Posts Solid 2016 Job Gain as the Labour Market Continues to Evolve

Ontario posted a relatively strong job gain of 76,400 net new jobs in 2016, as the unemployment rate declined to 6.5 per cent. However, looking beyond the headline results reveals a labour market that is undergoing both structural and behavioural changes as well as continuing challenges for some workers.

Cap and Trade: An Assessment of the Fiscal Impact of Cap and Trade

This report analyzes the fiscal impact of cap and trade, i.e. how cap and trade will impact the Province’s projected surplus/deficit. Under cap and trade, the Province would sell allowances to emit greenhouse gases. It would then spend the funds raised on initiatives to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook - Update, Fall 2016

This report provides an updated Economic and Fiscal Outlook for Ontario based on developments since the release of the FAO’s spring outlook on May 18, 2016.